My play was the highest scoring play, and I considered the best sequence, but ruled it out because I was being really greedy (saw the potential for a pretty probable 102-point two play sequence) and therefore stupid.
What is the right play?
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Ah, okay, I think I see it now - OVERBIDDEN is beautiful, and if you draw one of the several As left (some should be in the bag based on the last opponent play), you get TAJ next. Cute. Without running anything on this yet (even envelope math) I get the idea OVERBIDDEN first is the equity play, but JO first might be more of a game-sealer.
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I took the OVERBIDDEN as soon as I saw it for the same reason you said (which ended up working out best), but JO for 38, leaving your DEN for the (almost) guaranteed 51 on the next turn gets you up to around 99% win per. Really with the long snazzy play, you run into one losing sequence when you start playing the worst case scenario game. If your opponent comes back with WARPLANE for 98 and you pull CMNR, you play J(O) to be up 37 and your opponent's Ag(M)A
gives him a 1-point win.
Of course over the board you might not see all of this stuff, but you can sort of intuit that there might be some way to lose it if you are relying on an A draw.
My opponent did come back with WARPLANE, but I drew the A so it was all good.
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See you in a few days. You'll definitely be represented somewhere on my roto sheets.
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Hopefully, we'll meet across the board again. Our game was definitely the most fun one from Arden.
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