Блеф или принуждение? Путинское послание «Орешником». Bluff or Coercion? Putin’s «Oreshnik» Message
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Dec 12, 2024
Putin’s Nuclear Messaging and the Oreshnik Missile Test: Bluff or Coercion?
Panel discussion at the Saratoga Foundation, December 5, 2024
Participants:
Glen Howard, president of the Saratoga Foundation;
Pavel Luzin, a Senior Fellow at the Saratoga Foundation and a Visiting Scholar at the Fletcher School of Diplomacy;
Andrei Illarionov, a Senior Analyst at the Center for Security Policy;
Philip Breedlove, 17th Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR), 2013-2016
00:00 - Glen Howard: Introduction
04:33 - Pavel Luzin: Putin goes from nuclear deterrence to nuclear intimidation
09:10 - Glen Howard: Is it modification of RS-26 "Rubezh" or "Topol"?
09:27 - Pavel Luzin: "Oreshnik" is a lighter version of "Yars"
16:22 - Glen Howard: Result of the 2019 end of the INF treaty
17:26 - Pavel Luzin: The Putin’s goal is to increase an output of solid-fuel missiles
21:22 - Glen Howard: What are targets for "Oreshnik"?
21:56 - Pavel Luzin: ICMB and IRMB?
23:38 - Glen Howard: Nuclear coercion strategy aimed at a Mar-a-Lago inhabitant?
24:55 - Andrei Illarionov: The goal is coercive negotiations with the incoming USA administration on the Europe’s security architecture
40:31 - Glen Howard: What is the Malofeev's message?
41:42 - Andrei Illarionov: Putin needs to get "Yuzhmash" essentially intact. Why?
48:12 - Glen Howard: It is a frightening picture
49:50 - Philip M. Breedlove: A childish reaction of the US media gives Putin what he wants - capitulation
1:00:36 - Glen Howard: Whether incoming US administration prepared to the Putin's strategy?
1:02:47 - Philip M. Breedlove: Putin's new demands are for Europe
1:05:16 - Glen Howard: What is the Ukrainian strategy?
1:06:27 - Philip M. Breedlove: What is our strategy? The difference between what we say or what we do
1:10:16 - Andrei Illarionov: Putin is raising his stakes; the president-elect must not rush for negotiations; the Putin's obsession with missiles is his weak points: missiles production, missile deployment, anti-missile defense
1:18:48 - Pavel Luzin: Ukraine really needs their own IRMB, think about Votkinsk
1:22:57 - Philip M. Breedlove: We should not accept capitulation
1:24:22 - Glen Howard: This was an urgent discussion