The 85th Annual Academy Awards
As I did last year, here are my initial picks for the Oscar winners. Format nicked with permission from rezendi.
Nominees for the 85th Academy Awards
Best Picture
"Amour" Nominees TBD
"Argo" Grant Heslov, Ben Affleck and George Clooney, Producers
"Beasts of the Southern Wild" Dan Janvey, Josh Penn and Michael Gottwald, Producers
"Django Unchained" Stacey Sher, Reginald Hudlin and Pilar Savone, Producers
"Les Misérables" Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Debra Hayward and Cameron Mackintosh, Producers
"Life of Pi" Gil Netter, Ang Lee and David Womark, Producers
"Lincoln" Steven Spielberg and Kathleen Kennedy, Producers
"Silver Linings Playbook" Donna Gigliotti, Bruce Cohen and Jonathan Gordon, Producers
"Zero Dark Thirty" Mark Boal, Kathryn Bigelow and Megan Ellison, Producers
Will win: Les Misérables, Argo, or Lincoln
Should win: Beasts of the Southern Wild, anything but Silver Linings Playbook
Note: Are you fucking kidding me with Silver Linings Playbook? Really? With that excepted, this is actually a tighter race than it seems. I don't think Life of Pi will take this, though it will likely take Cinematography and possibly Director. I know it seems like a cop-out that I'm picking three, but it's too close right now for me to tell. Also, I'd like to take this opportunity to mention that I will once again be doing the Best Picture marathon at AMC, and considering the combined runtimes of these films is nearly 22 hours, it will likely be a grueling 26 hour day full of movies that make me want to kill myself, and Beasts of the Southern Wild. Sweet!
Best Actor
Bradley Cooper in "Silver Linings Playbook"
Daniel Day-Lewis in "Lincoln"
Hugh Jackman in "Les Misérables"
Joaquin Phoenix in "The Master"
Denzel Washington in "Flight"
Will win: Daniel Day-Lewis
Should win: Daniel Day-Lewis or Hugh Jackman
Note: This is a two-man race. I love Denzel, but Flight was not remarkable; The Master was awful, and again, are you fucking kidding me with Silver Linings Playbook? Jackman might take this, but against the established force that is Daniel Day-Lewis, I think a musical actor is a long shot.
Best Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin in "Argo"
Robert DeNiro in "Silver Linings Playbook"
Philip Seymour Hoffman in "The Master"
Tommy Lee Jones in "Lincoln"
Christoph Waltz in "Django Unchained"
Will win: Christoph Waltz
Should win: Waltz or Tommy Lee Jones
Note: This is a tough one to call, actually. A lot of seasoned actors who turned in some really banner performances. I'm saying Waltz now, because of the Globes and the relatively few noms for Django, but I'm not 100% sold on it. The Academy tends to skew a little more conservative, so this might be Jones's year. He hasn't won an Oscar since 1994, so who knows. Alan Arkin was great, but I'm not sure it's enough against this crew.
Best Actress
Jessica Chastain in "Zero Dark Thirty"
Jennifer Lawrence in "Silver Linings Playbook"
Emmanuelle Riva in "Amour"
Quvenzhané Wallis in "Beasts of the Southern Wild"
Naomi Watts in "The Impossible"
Will win: Jessica Chastain
Should win: Jessica Chastain
Note: I would love, LOVE to see Quvenzhané Wallis take this, but it's never gonna happen. Emmanuelle Riva may have been great, but the Academy has only given a Best Actress nod to a foreign language film twice in its history (1961 - Sophia Loren for "Two Women" and 2007 - Marion Cotillard "La Vie En Rose", if you're curious). I know Jennifer Lawrence took a Globe, but she won't win out when she and Chastain are in direct competition.
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams in "The Master"
Sally Field in "Lincoln"
Anne Hathaway in "Les Misérables"
Helen Hunt in "The Sessions"
Jacki Weaver in "Silver Linings Playbook"
Will win: Anne Hathaway
Should win: Anne Hathaway
Note: Hathaway was in her own league in Les Mis. Sally Field is my dark horse, because she was amazing in Lincoln, but I think Anne's got it this year.
Best Director
"Amour" Michael Haneke
"Beasts of the Southern Wild" Benh Zeitlin
"Life of Pi" Ang Lee
"Lincoln" Steven Spielberg
"Silver Linings Playbook" David O. Russell
Will win: Benh Zeitlin
Should win: anyone but David O. Russell
Note: This is a tough one. I'm surprised that Ben Affleck didn't get a nod for Argo. That said, man, this could go a lot of different ways. Lee and Spielberg are both heavy hitters, and a lot of critics have a special hard on for Haneke. I'm calling it for Zeitlin partly because of wishful thinking, and partly because I don't think Beasts... is going to get all the attention it deserves.
Best Documentary
"5 Broken Cameras" Emad Burnat and Guy Davidi
"The Gatekeepers" Nominees TBD
"How to Survive a Plague" Nominees TBD
"The Invisible War" Nominees TBD
"Searching for Sugar Man" Nominees TBD
Will win: The Invisible War
Should win: The Invisible War
Note: The Invisible War has gotten a lot of excellent buzz (it's the one about rape in the military you've seen going around on Facebook/Tumblr), and it's a really solid doc. But it's really controversial, which could help it or hurt it, depending on how the Academy swings this year. Once again, the doc I worked on never made it off the shortlist, but that's two years in a row we've had one make a showing. Come on, 2014!
Best Foreign Film
"Amour" Austria
"Kon-Tiki" Norway
"No" Chile
"A Royal Affair" Denmark
"War Witch" Canada
Will win: Amour
Should win: probably Amour
Note: To be honest, I didn't see most of these, so I'm calling it based on the fact that Amour will not win Best Picture. Although, haha, Norway made a movie about the Kon-Tiki? That's awesome!
Best Adapted Screenplay
"Argo" Screenplay by Chris Terrio
"Beasts of the Southern Wild" Screenplay by Lucy Alibar & Benh Zeitlin
"Life of Pi" Screenplay by David Magee
"Lincoln" Screenplay by Tony Kushner
"Silver Linings Playbook" Screenplay by David O. Russell
Will win: Argo
Should win: anything but Silver Linings Playbook
Note: This is another tough one, but I think it might be one of the few categories that Argo can take. Tony Kushner, though, that's pedigree. And I didn't realize that Beasts.. was an adaptation watching it, but I think its strength was truly in the visual categories and not the writing. Same with Life of Pi. I will honestly be happy with anything but Silver Linings Playbook winning this category.
Best Original Screenplay
"Amour" Written by Michael Haneke
"Django Unchained" Written by Quentin Taratino
"Flight" Written by John Gatins
"Moonrise Kingdom" Written by Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola
"Zero Dark Thirty" Written by Mark Boal
Will win: Django Unchained
Should win: Django Unchained or Moonrise Kingdom
Note: Can Wes Anderson muster enough voters outraged by the omission of Moonrise Kingdom from every other major category to propel it to victory over the Tarantino powerhouse? Sources point to no.
As for the rest, I think Adele will take the Best Original Song for "Skyfall," that's just a given. Also, having seen all of the nominees for Best Animated Short, "Paperman" is going to take it. I love that little film SO MUCH. Animated Feature is a little tougher, but as much as I'd love to see "Wreck-It Ralph" take it, I think it's actually a race between "Brave" and "Paranorman," and "Brave" is gonna come out on top. Score is a toss-up, but I think "Life of Pi" might take it. I'll have opinions on Live Action and Documentary shorts after this weekend, I'm sure. If anyone wants my opinions on the design and technical categories, just ask. As you can clearly see, I'll talk your damn ear off about this stuff.
Nominees for the 85th Academy Awards
Best Picture
"Amour" Nominees TBD
"Argo" Grant Heslov, Ben Affleck and George Clooney, Producers
"Beasts of the Southern Wild" Dan Janvey, Josh Penn and Michael Gottwald, Producers
"Django Unchained" Stacey Sher, Reginald Hudlin and Pilar Savone, Producers
"Les Misérables" Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Debra Hayward and Cameron Mackintosh, Producers
"Life of Pi" Gil Netter, Ang Lee and David Womark, Producers
"Lincoln" Steven Spielberg and Kathleen Kennedy, Producers
"Silver Linings Playbook" Donna Gigliotti, Bruce Cohen and Jonathan Gordon, Producers
"Zero Dark Thirty" Mark Boal, Kathryn Bigelow and Megan Ellison, Producers
Will win: Les Misérables, Argo, or Lincoln
Should win: Beasts of the Southern Wild, anything but Silver Linings Playbook
Note: Are you fucking kidding me with Silver Linings Playbook? Really? With that excepted, this is actually a tighter race than it seems. I don't think Life of Pi will take this, though it will likely take Cinematography and possibly Director. I know it seems like a cop-out that I'm picking three, but it's too close right now for me to tell. Also, I'd like to take this opportunity to mention that I will once again be doing the Best Picture marathon at AMC, and considering the combined runtimes of these films is nearly 22 hours, it will likely be a grueling 26 hour day full of movies that make me want to kill myself, and Beasts of the Southern Wild. Sweet!
Best Actor
Bradley Cooper in "Silver Linings Playbook"
Daniel Day-Lewis in "Lincoln"
Hugh Jackman in "Les Misérables"
Joaquin Phoenix in "The Master"
Denzel Washington in "Flight"
Will win: Daniel Day-Lewis
Should win: Daniel Day-Lewis or Hugh Jackman
Note: This is a two-man race. I love Denzel, but Flight was not remarkable; The Master was awful, and again, are you fucking kidding me with Silver Linings Playbook? Jackman might take this, but against the established force that is Daniel Day-Lewis, I think a musical actor is a long shot.
Best Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin in "Argo"
Robert DeNiro in "Silver Linings Playbook"
Philip Seymour Hoffman in "The Master"
Tommy Lee Jones in "Lincoln"
Christoph Waltz in "Django Unchained"
Will win: Christoph Waltz
Should win: Waltz or Tommy Lee Jones
Note: This is a tough one to call, actually. A lot of seasoned actors who turned in some really banner performances. I'm saying Waltz now, because of the Globes and the relatively few noms for Django, but I'm not 100% sold on it. The Academy tends to skew a little more conservative, so this might be Jones's year. He hasn't won an Oscar since 1994, so who knows. Alan Arkin was great, but I'm not sure it's enough against this crew.
Best Actress
Jessica Chastain in "Zero Dark Thirty"
Jennifer Lawrence in "Silver Linings Playbook"
Emmanuelle Riva in "Amour"
Quvenzhané Wallis in "Beasts of the Southern Wild"
Naomi Watts in "The Impossible"
Will win: Jessica Chastain
Should win: Jessica Chastain
Note: I would love, LOVE to see Quvenzhané Wallis take this, but it's never gonna happen. Emmanuelle Riva may have been great, but the Academy has only given a Best Actress nod to a foreign language film twice in its history (1961 - Sophia Loren for "Two Women" and 2007 - Marion Cotillard "La Vie En Rose", if you're curious). I know Jennifer Lawrence took a Globe, but she won't win out when she and Chastain are in direct competition.
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams in "The Master"
Sally Field in "Lincoln"
Anne Hathaway in "Les Misérables"
Helen Hunt in "The Sessions"
Jacki Weaver in "Silver Linings Playbook"
Will win: Anne Hathaway
Should win: Anne Hathaway
Note: Hathaway was in her own league in Les Mis. Sally Field is my dark horse, because she was amazing in Lincoln, but I think Anne's got it this year.
Best Director
"Amour" Michael Haneke
"Beasts of the Southern Wild" Benh Zeitlin
"Life of Pi" Ang Lee
"Lincoln" Steven Spielberg
"Silver Linings Playbook" David O. Russell
Will win: Benh Zeitlin
Should win: anyone but David O. Russell
Note: This is a tough one. I'm surprised that Ben Affleck didn't get a nod for Argo. That said, man, this could go a lot of different ways. Lee and Spielberg are both heavy hitters, and a lot of critics have a special hard on for Haneke. I'm calling it for Zeitlin partly because of wishful thinking, and partly because I don't think Beasts... is going to get all the attention it deserves.
Best Documentary
"5 Broken Cameras" Emad Burnat and Guy Davidi
"The Gatekeepers" Nominees TBD
"How to Survive a Plague" Nominees TBD
"The Invisible War" Nominees TBD
"Searching for Sugar Man" Nominees TBD
Will win: The Invisible War
Should win: The Invisible War
Note: The Invisible War has gotten a lot of excellent buzz (it's the one about rape in the military you've seen going around on Facebook/Tumblr), and it's a really solid doc. But it's really controversial, which could help it or hurt it, depending on how the Academy swings this year. Once again, the doc I worked on never made it off the shortlist, but that's two years in a row we've had one make a showing. Come on, 2014!
Best Foreign Film
"Amour" Austria
"Kon-Tiki" Norway
"No" Chile
"A Royal Affair" Denmark
"War Witch" Canada
Will win: Amour
Should win: probably Amour
Note: To be honest, I didn't see most of these, so I'm calling it based on the fact that Amour will not win Best Picture. Although, haha, Norway made a movie about the Kon-Tiki? That's awesome!
Best Adapted Screenplay
"Argo" Screenplay by Chris Terrio
"Beasts of the Southern Wild" Screenplay by Lucy Alibar & Benh Zeitlin
"Life of Pi" Screenplay by David Magee
"Lincoln" Screenplay by Tony Kushner
"Silver Linings Playbook" Screenplay by David O. Russell
Will win: Argo
Should win: anything but Silver Linings Playbook
Note: This is another tough one, but I think it might be one of the few categories that Argo can take. Tony Kushner, though, that's pedigree. And I didn't realize that Beasts.. was an adaptation watching it, but I think its strength was truly in the visual categories and not the writing. Same with Life of Pi. I will honestly be happy with anything but Silver Linings Playbook winning this category.
Best Original Screenplay
"Amour" Written by Michael Haneke
"Django Unchained" Written by Quentin Taratino
"Flight" Written by John Gatins
"Moonrise Kingdom" Written by Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola
"Zero Dark Thirty" Written by Mark Boal
Will win: Django Unchained
Should win: Django Unchained or Moonrise Kingdom
Note: Can Wes Anderson muster enough voters outraged by the omission of Moonrise Kingdom from every other major category to propel it to victory over the Tarantino powerhouse? Sources point to no.
As for the rest, I think Adele will take the Best Original Song for "Skyfall," that's just a given. Also, having seen all of the nominees for Best Animated Short, "Paperman" is going to take it. I love that little film SO MUCH. Animated Feature is a little tougher, but as much as I'd love to see "Wreck-It Ralph" take it, I think it's actually a race between "Brave" and "Paranorman," and "Brave" is gonna come out on top. Score is a toss-up, but I think "Life of Pi" might take it. I'll have opinions on Live Action and Documentary shorts after this weekend, I'm sure. If anyone wants my opinions on the design and technical categories, just ask. As you can clearly see, I'll talk your damn ear off about this stuff.