Obligatory World Cup Predictions Post
So, Brazil will almost certainly win every match which means Australia, Japan and Croatia are all on 0 points from them, leaving a total of 6 possible points, in combinations of either 0,0 (two defeats), 1,1 (two draws), 1,3 (one draw, one win) and 3,3 (two wins).
If Australia beats Japan (+3) and draws with Croatia (+1), then provided Croatia either draws with Japan or wins by less and concedes more goals to Brazil, we're going through.
If Australia draws with Japan (+1) and draws with Croatia (+1), then unless Japan and Croatia draw on a scoring game (and concede more goals than us to Brazil), we're out.
If Australia loses to Japan (0), and wins against Croatia (+3), then unless Croatia beats Japan (by fewer goals then by what we beat them, and with more goals scored against them by Brazil), we're out. A draw is okay, so long as both countries are behind us on goals.
All other outcomes? We're out.
So... in conclusion:
1. This does not look good, and
2. We really have to win tomorrow night.
And since I claim the supporting rights of dual citizenship:
I just realised! (apologies if everyone else figured this out weeks ago when the draw came out)
England's probably going to come first in Group B (B1) and will then play the runner-up of A (A2), probably Ecuador at this rate.
Assuming the win, the quarterfinal will be against the winner from D1 v C2. Group C is the one with Argentina and Holland, and D1 will probably be Portugal, maybe Mexico. C2 will probably win this match.
Which means, there's a strong chance England will be playing Argentina in the quarterfinal.
History repeats.
::headthunk::
This is bad because:
1. We have this nasty habit of losing to Argentina (or winning but whilst playing really ugly football)
2. If (1) is so, no matter how many thugs had their passports confiscated, there'll be broken glass and teeth on the streets of Hamburg.
*
In other news, my cousin Tamsin is soon flying back to the UK after a working holiday in Sydney. We're having a goodbye dinner tomorrow evening (I'm going to look so very silly wearing green and gold in a restaurant) after which I disappear off to the match (oh how I wish it were to the actual match).
It's been odd having a cousin in Australia, though nice. It's odd that I've got all those cousins, aunts, uncles and sole matriarchal Grandma in the UK who I practically never see or hear from except round birthdays and Christmas. Sometimes it all seems quite made up, a fictional creation story my parents told me when I was young about how we came to be here and why our skin isn't suited to the climate; and the collection of cards that arrive twice a year, and the odd pound coin lying around the place are like letters to Santa and the sacred relics of saints.
...and then I read over the transcription of my thoughts and wonder where the hell that came from.