I've seen a couple of people speculating that the Arkenstone is a Silmaril. My first reaction was, "Bzuh? How could that be? The Silmarils were destroyed at the end of the First Age, except for the one that's become Earendil's star. No way one could be the Arkenstone
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I was very intrigued by the theory the first time that I heard it, mostly for the reasons that you've laid out here. I doubt that Tolkien completely intended that to be the case (like others have said, he most likely would have said something somewhere, so it's probably a case of him reusing the idea), but there's absolutely nothing with the theory that I've thought of that would make it impossible. And based on the way some things have been playing out in the movies, I highly suspect that at least one of the people involved in the writing is subscribing to the theory.
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