Mathematics Point to Obama

[artemis77]

(This is an interesting analysis on the delegate count from the Obama community. With graphs and numbers from the Slate delegate counter.)

Mathematically impossible for Clinton to win candidacy.

Okay, back to work - no online for many hours. Take care, kiddos.

Comments

[lietya]

It's not mathematically impossible until the superdelegates have permanently chosen (their current waffling about doesn't count). I hate the superdelegate system - and I admit, I have serious doubts about Hillary's chances - but they are an unignorable factor. There are now about 450 of them in play, and that's enough that they could give her the election if they so chose. They probably wouldn't, they almost certainly shouldn't, but they COULD, which makes any talk of "mathematically eliminated" meaningless. That's part of what's so frustrating about this whole process

[artemis77]

Did you read the Time Magazine piece linked in there? I'd say they're pretty reliable.

The Super Delegates will not go against the will of the people - it would be political suicide for those that are currently in elected offices. The main goal of most politicians is to remain in power, hence, they're not going to do it. So going with the KISS theory (keep it simple stupid - not you, of course) - lets just count them because not counting them is akin to banking on some natural disaster in a state that would kill everyone and eliminate all possible delegates from that count. For fuck's sake.

[artemis77]

Also, when even being conservative with the Slate counter gives Hillary more delegates based on the percentage of votes received than she'd actually get - given that some areas mandate that a candidate get a certain threshold number of votes before they get delegates at all. That's been written about as well.

[lietya]

Which Time Magazine article? I think I've read it - I get the mag for work - but I don't see a link in that post.

All I'm saying is that it's not mathematically impossible (actually, so does the linked post here say that), and that the original post is oversimplifying if it claims that *all* remaining states handle delegate allocation the same way.