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[barking_iguana]

Let's put that question I asked in May in plain language

Comments

[markgritter]

OK, this is out of my comfort zone, but if I had to solve this problem here's how I'd tackle it

[markgritter]

In practice if you're using Monte Carlo methods maybe you can compute the joint probability f( X1, X2, ..., XN | M ) directly.

[markgritter]

Some guy on Quora suggests a Beta distribution --- it's a two-parameter distribution bounded to [0, 1].