Prediction

[beingjdc]

Because I enjoy looking silly, and despite the fact that the exit polls in 15 minutes are going to be very good for the Conservatives

Comments

[juggzy]

I'm predicting 33/30/28 con/lab/lib but now realise that this may be because I hang about on the internet.

[beingjdc]

37 28 27.

[juggzy]

Which essentially means that 63% percent of the country don't want a robber baron taking the deficit and making sure that those who caused it don't have to repay any of it.

Win! Yes?

[beingjdc]

Or it means that 64% of the country want a public school boy who supports "savage cuts" and cites Thatches as an inspiration. Take your pick - for all the talk of tactical voting only ever being anti-Tory, plenty of Tories vote Lib Dem to get Labour out in the relevant marginals.

[beingjdc]

Suits me.

[burkesworks]

the exit polls in 15 minutes are going to be very good for the Conservatives...

Turns out they're rather less good than your prediction!

[beingjdc]

Uniform swing issue - lack of numbers. 538's reconstruction, turning their UNS assumption into a vote share, and back again through proportional swing, would give the Tories 344 seats.

[jiggery_pokery]

FWIW, my prediction was (and, if I had posted it, would have been) very similar to yours.

Fools seldom differ!

[beingjdc]

I think that's not a bad overall prediction - just missed how many people would change their minds about the Lib Dems and head back to Labour at the last minute!