Predictions

[beingjdc]

I like making these. Sometimes I'm right, no promises. Anyway, things which will happen by Summer 2013. At some point along this list, the European Central Bank will start printing money and giving it to distressed Eurozone Governments, at which point the game changes and the predictions no longer apply

Comments

[willjsm]

i definitely agree with this one.

[willjsm]

I agree about the general direction, although i think greece getting thrown out of the euro and the ensuing violence and disorder will encourage other countries to find a way to stay in; as such i disagree with (10). Also disagree with (9) - i don't think the popular hatred is against brussels, i think it's against the germans.

[jiggery_pokery]

Under what circumstances do governments of National Unity really get formed in practice? (I certainly heard the concept mooted, in the concept of Greece, a day or two ago.) Is it realistic that we might see them under circumstances such as these, or are politicians still too partisan to try to make it happen? Is there any merit in the concept of having them happen more frequently in circumstances such as the current ones?

A large part of me hoped that we might see one in the UK after the most recent Westminster election did not return a majority. However, especially considering that I really don't know much about them, I suspect I was hoping for one more for the novelty than anything else. I also note the divergence of our views on the relative desirability of, very roughly, "strong" and "representative" governments. :-)

[beingjdc]

Outside, perhaps, of total war, I would argue they get formed in circumstances where the political class is united in its desire to do something, and knows that the electorate does not wish to do that thing.

[jiggery_pokery]

Thanks, that seems reasonable. I suppose that there are so many ways to organise governments of National Unity that it's impossible to generalise effectively but there do seem to be at least considerable similarities between this general principle and what we have seen happening in Greece and in Italy.

The open question is that all the major UK parties were pretty keen that there needed to be major cuts in public spending, though the difference between what our biggest two parties were proposing was fairly small. I guess Ed is coming out and saying "whoa, now is the time for big Keynsian infrastructure stimulus" which is a difference, but it wasn't that big a difference at the last election. Perhaps it's difficult to know how much difference between the parties' positions there has to be for a National Unity government to fall apart due to disunity in practice.