My (crazed, convoluted, utterly paranoid) thoughts on the further mystery after seeing "The Magician" and "The Secret Origin of Felicity Smoak."
Spoilers & Specualtions below the cut.
In part 1, I explained all the myriad reasons Malcolm wasn't the one who shot Sara. After watching "The Magician," I was then actually convinced he DID have something to do with it! After all, look what it got him: he was able to plant a seed of doubt in Nyssa that could eventually turn her against her father and create a huge rift within the League of Assassins. Something Malcolm could really use!
Now, many folks were dismissing Malcolm as a suspect because "he was off training his daughter in Corto Maltese," as shown in the earlier episodes. I didn't buy that, because... there was time for him to fly up to Starling City, bump off Sara, and then fly back to Corto Maltese. (It's even easier now that I know Corto Maltese is in South America, not the Mediterranean, as I had previously thought. Fewer time zones to cross!)
Malcolm may have arranged to have plausible deniability. He may NOT have killed Sara, not himself, but I'm sure he could have used a catspaw. The most likely suspect: Thea.
I wasn't sure how he could convince Thea to kill Sara. It's actually not clear yet if Thea is a killer at all.
I was thinking that if the League of Assassins assassins had shown up and tried to kill Malcolm and/or Thea a few times... and Malcolm told Thea that Sara was in the League and trying to kill him/them... and that they needed to kill Sara to stay safe... she might have bought that.
And, of course... in "The Magician," we see that Malcolm indeed WAS in Starling City 2 weeks ago, when Sara was killed. (Told Ya!) Was Thea with him at the time? We still don't know.
Now at the end of "The Secret Origin of Felicity Smoak," we see Roy has a nightmare about killing Sara. Hmm!
Naturally, my suspicious (and, let's face it, fanboyish) mind tries to figure out how Malcolm arranged that. Has he been messing with Roy's head? Has he been drugging/hypnotizing Roy in his sleep? (Roy HAS been acting really strange lately. I kinda wish he was trying to get into Thea's pants, because this zen Roy is really freaking me out. And hey, if Malcolm is subliminally programming Roy to be his catspaw killer, he could take a moment to plant some suggestions about leaving his daughter alone...! :X)
The scary thought? Roy's been sleeping at his place, I presume. And Oliver has been staying in the club basement, where Malcolm can't get to him. So, Oliver moving in with Thea... yeah. Uh huh.
So then, since Roy THREW arrows at Sara... I'm thinking mirakuru is involved again. (Although, yeah, back in the Season 1 semi-finale, the show established that someone could throw an arrow with enough force to do damage... I still think that's crap.) And I was trying to figure out how Malcolm dosed him with mirakuru and other suggestibility-inducing drugs...
THEN, this morning I had a breakthrough! I know what happened! (maybe)
If Roy did the new, improved Vertigo, he would have seen the face of whoever he feared most. That's why he attacked Sara -- he thought she was someone else, an enemy (Slade?).
So now the question is... did Roy just do drugs because he's been depressed, or did someone slip him something? Let's not forget... where'd these black arrows come from? They're not his. (Oh, it's possible they were Sara's? She had a quiver sitting there on the roof? But she usually doesn't carry a bow.)
But anyway, it is, I have to admit, entirely possible that Malcolm is completely innocent! Uh... or let's just say, that he had nothing to do with Sara's death, here. :X