Political Prediction of the Day

Sep 24, 2010 14:59

I'm going to offer an official prediction, so that in four years when it happens I can say "I told you so." Or if it doesn't happen, you can mock me ( Read more... )

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robbbbbb September 24 2010, 23:09:12 UTC
In some ways, I hope you're correct ( ... )

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johhnymayhem September 26 2010, 08:08:29 UTC
Well that's a surprisingly optimistic prediction; I hope you're not too far from the truth. I would imagine that creating a third party is the best chance, maybe the only chance, for our politics to grow in a better direction.

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kenshi September 26 2010, 21:59:22 UTC
I've been coming to the same conclusion, but I think we might see a Tea Party juggernaut rise as early as the 2012 election, not 2014.

I'm kenshi, and I approve this message.

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boffo September 26 2010, 23:48:38 UTC
I think it will take a little more time for the Tea Partiers to get disillusioned with the Republicans, and then form into an official party.

Keep in mind the Tea Party isn't any sort of coherent organization. It's millions of individuals and hundreds of organizations that self-identify as Tea Partiers. Which one of those will form an official party? How will they decide? They'll work that out, but not quickly.

I do think we might see a few Tea Partiers elected to Congress as independents in 2012. But not an official party, and certainly not in the Presidential election.

Although I suppose it's possible we'd see a rich charismatic person (like Perot, but not actually him) mount a Presidential run with Tea Party support.

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kenshi September 27 2010, 00:51:10 UTC
Think about how fast political shift occurred between 1856 and 1860, or 1928 and 1932. This situation has the same potential, even if right now it seems implausible.

Discontent and motive for change are forming a super-saturated solution in the US body politic. It won't take much for it to instantly crystallize around a new consensus power within the electorate. When it happens, I suspect the speed with which it occurs will surprise a lot of people.

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boffo September 27 2010, 16:48:49 UTC
I hope you're right.

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