"Theresa May, You should have stayed at home yesterday."
So my predictions after the election were way off - I couldn't even count the majority right! I correctly foresaw that the renegotiation with Europe was a bust but I never even imagined we'd lose the referendum.
Anyway, in the continued interests of being falsifiable where possible, some thoughts about our new PM:
- I've tended to view the Brexit vote as a far-right coup within the Tory party. In which case May's ascendancy is a counter coup by the establishment.
- Viewed through this lens she looks weak, she's tried to mollify the insurgents (the Three Brexiteers in government) and brutally dispatched the old guard anyway (Osborne). In which case if trouble comes, it will come from the right (wanting the full English Brexit) rather than the centre (arguments for a second referendum/commons vote on Article 50/etc.)
- Following this line of reasoning, it's going to dicey when the Brexiteers start realising how difficult leaving is going to be. Business is going to be pushing hard to retain the single market etc. (a continental Brexit) and it's going to be hard to ignore them. The question is probably how much of a delay will the Tory right put up with before anything happens? I'd guess they've got till spring next year before anyone starts making a fuss.
- Supposedly David Davis and Liam Fox (pronounced: dɪsˈɡreɪst fôr′mər mĭn′ĭ-stər li'əm fŏks) can't stand to be in the same room as each other. I doubt either of them are fans of Boris (and probably doubt his true belief), and Boris is only ever in anything for Boris. There will be no united front there.
- I also wouldn't be surprised if some ex-General or other comes out of the woodwork with questions/allegations about Liam Fox - conspiracy theories aside the business that led to his previous resignation was deeply dodgy and never properly explained.
- On the other hand Theresa May has enjoyed a remarkably quiet six years at the home office (a job that used to dispatch Tony Blair's ministers at a rate of knots). She can probably ride a lot of things out, especially while Corbyn remains Labour leader.
- Similarly, while it's been pointed out that she's sacked more ministers and junior ministers than she has a majority, I doubt there's going to be trouble from that quarter; Tories are loyal when it matters and the old Cameroonian-Osbornites no longer have a dog in the fight (unlike the right).
- Elsewhere, there will doubtlessly be much fuss about Priti Patel at Int. Dev. in the liberal papers but she'll ride it out. Her own party won't care much and the tabloids will love her. She's probably a good bet for next leader in ten-or-so years time.
- Hammond's going to have a tricky time if the economy wobbles as much as looks likely. The old austerity rhetoric will sound outdated from a new chancellor but any attempt to produce a stimulus will be seized upon as an admission that A. Brexit is damaging, and B. Six years of tight fiscal policy have been the wrong thing to do. But again, with John McDonnell not looking very serious on the other side of the house, he'll ride it out.
- The only other nasty business on the horizon is the decision whether or not to ditch Universal Credit. Damian Green's appointment doesn't give much clue but I guess it'll be quietly shuffled aside rather than taken out back and shot.
- I doubt there will be an early election. It would be a pain to call under the fixed-term act, an unnecessary risk, and an exposure of the fact that there is still no Brexit plan. There might be one in 2017/2018 if a plan takes shape (or possibly a second referendum, but don't bank on Remain being one of the options). By 2019 it would be too close to the scheduled election anyway.
- The current strong polls are pretty typical of a new PM and you will probably see them die back to a mid-to-high-single-digit lead over Corbyn's Labour party pretty soon (that's still feckin' awful for Corbyn btw).
- We'll all get a bit of blessed peace over the summer while parliament is in recess. I expect the rest of the 2016 to lack any more fireworks (and look like beautiful calm efficiency compared to the Labour party).
- Fun fact: Theresa May's unopposed appointment actually goes against the Conservative constitution (which states that the membership will be given a choice). It's illuminating to contrast this with the Labour party currently being taken to court over their own leadership election - tells you a lot about the two parties.
- Less fun thought: An Owen Smith Labour party is going to look a lot like Neil Kinnock vs Margaret Thatcher all over again. Probably with the same outcome.
Anyway, in the continued interests of being falsifiable where possible, some thoughts about our new PM:
- I've tended to view the Brexit vote as a far-right coup within the Tory party. In which case May's ascendancy is a counter coup by the establishment.
- Viewed through this lens she looks weak, she's tried to mollify the insurgents (the Three Brexiteers in government) and brutally dispatched the old guard anyway (Osborne). In which case if trouble comes, it will come from the right (wanting the full English Brexit) rather than the centre (arguments for a second referendum/commons vote on Article 50/etc.)
- Following this line of reasoning, it's going to dicey when the Brexiteers start realising how difficult leaving is going to be. Business is going to be pushing hard to retain the single market etc. (a continental Brexit) and it's going to be hard to ignore them. The question is probably how much of a delay will the Tory right put up with before anything happens? I'd guess they've got till spring next year before anyone starts making a fuss.
- Supposedly David Davis and Liam Fox (pronounced: dɪsˈɡreɪst fôr′mər mĭn′ĭ-stər li'əm fŏks) can't stand to be in the same room as each other. I doubt either of them are fans of Boris (and probably doubt his true belief), and Boris is only ever in anything for Boris. There will be no united front there.
- I also wouldn't be surprised if some ex-General or other comes out of the woodwork with questions/allegations about Liam Fox - conspiracy theories aside the business that led to his previous resignation was deeply dodgy and never properly explained.
- On the other hand Theresa May has enjoyed a remarkably quiet six years at the home office (a job that used to dispatch Tony Blair's ministers at a rate of knots). She can probably ride a lot of things out, especially while Corbyn remains Labour leader.
- Similarly, while it's been pointed out that she's sacked more ministers and junior ministers than she has a majority, I doubt there's going to be trouble from that quarter; Tories are loyal when it matters and the old Cameroonian-Osbornites no longer have a dog in the fight (unlike the right).
- Elsewhere, there will doubtlessly be much fuss about Priti Patel at Int. Dev. in the liberal papers but she'll ride it out. Her own party won't care much and the tabloids will love her. She's probably a good bet for next leader in ten-or-so years time.
- Hammond's going to have a tricky time if the economy wobbles as much as looks likely. The old austerity rhetoric will sound outdated from a new chancellor but any attempt to produce a stimulus will be seized upon as an admission that A. Brexit is damaging, and B. Six years of tight fiscal policy have been the wrong thing to do. But again, with John McDonnell not looking very serious on the other side of the house, he'll ride it out.
- The only other nasty business on the horizon is the decision whether or not to ditch Universal Credit. Damian Green's appointment doesn't give much clue but I guess it'll be quietly shuffled aside rather than taken out back and shot.
- I doubt there will be an early election. It would be a pain to call under the fixed-term act, an unnecessary risk, and an exposure of the fact that there is still no Brexit plan. There might be one in 2017/2018 if a plan takes shape (or possibly a second referendum, but don't bank on Remain being one of the options). By 2019 it would be too close to the scheduled election anyway.
- The current strong polls are pretty typical of a new PM and you will probably see them die back to a mid-to-high-single-digit lead over Corbyn's Labour party pretty soon (that's still feckin' awful for Corbyn btw).
- We'll all get a bit of blessed peace over the summer while parliament is in recess. I expect the rest of the 2016 to lack any more fireworks (and look like beautiful calm efficiency compared to the Labour party).
- Fun fact: Theresa May's unopposed appointment actually goes against the Conservative constitution (which states that the membership will be given a choice). It's illuminating to contrast this with the Labour party currently being taken to court over their own leadership election - tells you a lot about the two parties.
- Less fun thought: An Owen Smith Labour party is going to look a lot like Neil Kinnock vs Margaret Thatcher all over again. Probably with the same outcome.