The Moon Needs Water! (Part 2)
So in Part 1 I laid out the need for makeup water. Now, as one commenter pointed out, a Lunar settlement would have a lot of problems, such as getting rid of waste heat and airflow - convection moves a lot slower at 1/6 G. Actually, a lot of stuff is dependent on gravity - like plumbing, both drains and supply lines. But all those are local problems, and don't greatly affect balance of trade economics. Although maybe the reason all the Lunies wear bikinis is because the settlement is so damn hot! ;-)
Water, on the other hand, does affect trade. Obviously, for the first settlement or so, shipping it from Earth will have to be the answer. But Earth is a costly place to ship from. Jerry Pournelle tells me that the energy needed to get from the ground to Earth orbit is equivalent to flying from Los Angeles to Sydney, Australia. Bulk airfreight rates run around $2 / pound for that distance, and the energy cost to go to the Lunar surface is (roughly) 4 times the Earth-to-orbit figure. So, at $8 a pound, that container of water costs $1.3 million in shipping alone!
At that rate, ($66 / gallon water) doing what it takes to get to 99.9% efficiency makes sense. Hell, even at $2 per pound, $17 a gallon water isn’t exactly cheap. There is a chicken and egg dynamic going on here. The cost of water restricts settlement, while that same cost of water is a strong incentive to find a cheaper source of water.
But where oh where could an enterprising soul find cheap water? May I suggest Jupiter? Or rather, Ganymede, Europa and Callisto, three large Jovian moons composed largely of ice. Another commenter suggested the asteroid Ceres. Either or both, these bodies are a painfully far distance away from Earth, but the same mining techniques one would need to build a settlement on Luna should work just fine on any one of these places. Also, the nice thing about water is that there will be a steady demand, and thus each shipment of water is in no particular hurry to get to Luna.
What does this mean for world-building? Well, for one thing, the settlers on Luna could have much the same relationship with their water planet that modern Americans do to Saudi Arabia. We need what they have, and we’ll do what it takes to get it. Also, as the price of water falls, the incentive to scrimp and save every drop goes away as well. You could have a society where Grandma gets really upset at a spilled juice glass and her grandkids take long showers.
For another thing, there is a theory in economics called the “resource trap.” Basically, the concept is that if a country or region becomes dominated by extracting one valuable resource, the economy doesn’t grow. There’s no incentive to develop other industries or trade, and the people (and the government) can get trapped in arguing over dividing the existing pot as opposed to growing the pot.
If you are a writer looking for a source of conflict, well, here it is. Luna, tired of dealing with the “robber water barons” of Ganymede or Ceres, goes to war. Instant plot - just add water!
Water, on the other hand, does affect trade. Obviously, for the first settlement or so, shipping it from Earth will have to be the answer. But Earth is a costly place to ship from. Jerry Pournelle tells me that the energy needed to get from the ground to Earth orbit is equivalent to flying from Los Angeles to Sydney, Australia. Bulk airfreight rates run around $2 / pound for that distance, and the energy cost to go to the Lunar surface is (roughly) 4 times the Earth-to-orbit figure. So, at $8 a pound, that container of water costs $1.3 million in shipping alone!
At that rate, ($66 / gallon water) doing what it takes to get to 99.9% efficiency makes sense. Hell, even at $2 per pound, $17 a gallon water isn’t exactly cheap. There is a chicken and egg dynamic going on here. The cost of water restricts settlement, while that same cost of water is a strong incentive to find a cheaper source of water.
But where oh where could an enterprising soul find cheap water? May I suggest Jupiter? Or rather, Ganymede, Europa and Callisto, three large Jovian moons composed largely of ice. Another commenter suggested the asteroid Ceres. Either or both, these bodies are a painfully far distance away from Earth, but the same mining techniques one would need to build a settlement on Luna should work just fine on any one of these places. Also, the nice thing about water is that there will be a steady demand, and thus each shipment of water is in no particular hurry to get to Luna.
What does this mean for world-building? Well, for one thing, the settlers on Luna could have much the same relationship with their water planet that modern Americans do to Saudi Arabia. We need what they have, and we’ll do what it takes to get it. Also, as the price of water falls, the incentive to scrimp and save every drop goes away as well. You could have a society where Grandma gets really upset at a spilled juice glass and her grandkids take long showers.
For another thing, there is a theory in economics called the “resource trap.” Basically, the concept is that if a country or region becomes dominated by extracting one valuable resource, the economy doesn’t grow. There’s no incentive to develop other industries or trade, and the people (and the government) can get trapped in arguing over dividing the existing pot as opposed to growing the pot.
If you are a writer looking for a source of conflict, well, here it is. Luna, tired of dealing with the “robber water barons” of Ganymede or Ceres, goes to war. Instant plot - just add water!