SSMF #5 = Nostradamus
1. Intro
~ click here for an introduction (and for links to previous SSMFs) ~
2. Why is this an SSMF?
2.1. About 2 months ago I started discussing messianic prophecy with pommy, here. I compared some messianic prophecies with the prophecies of Nostradamus. [NOTE: I do not think all messianic prophecies are comparable with the prophecies of Nostradamus].
2.2. Much to my surprise, my comparison had no effect on pommy. When I asked him if he was familiar with Nostradamus, he answered, "Roughly. He predicted the worlds end round the turn of the millenium didn't he? As well as several significant events?"
2.3. Nostradamus did not predict the world's end around the year 2000, and I don't think he accurately predict much of anything.
2.4. The way I see it, if you cannot debunk Nostradamus, then there's no way you can debunk messianic prophecy (you have to learn the basics first).
2.5. Thus, today I would like to teach the basics. :)
3. Brief background on Nostradamus
According to sacred-texts.com: "The renowned prophet Nostradamus (Michel de Nostradame) was born on December 14, 1503 in St. Remy, Provence, France. ... Nostradamus began to write his prophetic verses in the city of Salon, in 1554. They are divided into ten sections called Centuries (which refers to the number of verses in each section, not to a unit of 100 years). The Centuries were published in 1555 and 1558, and have been in print continuously ever since."
4. 3 main problems
I have 3 main problems with Nostradamus' prophecies: they are too vague, too numerous, and too open-ended. If you have a large enough pool of prophecies to pick from, eventually, you're going to find something that sort-of sounds like it almost-happened at least once in recorded history. Nostradamus wrote 10 of these Centuries. Each Century contains 100 quatrains (except for Century 7, which only has 42). Thus, there are 942 quatrains total. Each quatrain contains 4 verses. Thus, there are 3,768 verses total.
4.1. Stats
4.1.1. Using 942 as our "total number of prophecies," if Nostradamus predicted 10 events correctly, that would mean he was "right" approximately 1% of the time (10 out of 942 = 0.0106 * 100 = 1.06%). Conversely, it would mean he was "wrong" about 99% of the time.
4.1.2. Using 3,768 as our total, if Nostradamus predicted 10 events correctly, that would mean he was "right" approximately 0% of the time (10 out of 3,768 = 0.0026 * 100 = 0.26%). Conversely, it would mean he was "wrong" about 100% of the time.
4.2. The Lottery Fallacy
4.2.1. If you buy a single lottery ticket, your chances of winning the lottery are very slim. But if you buy 2 tickets, your odds increase. If you buy 4 tickets, your odds increase more. If you buy several thousand tickets, your chances of winning the lottery are fairly good. If you buy several billion tickets, you are guaranteed to win.
4.2.2. The same principle can be applied to Nostradamus.
4.3. The Open-Ended Lottery Fallacy
4.3.1. If you buy a single lottery ticket, your chances of winning a lottery that takes place on day X is very slim. However, if you're able to use the same lottery ticket that you used on day X on another lottery that takes place on day Y, then your chances of winning increase. If you can use the same ticket on days W, X, Y, and Z, your odds increase more. If you can use the same ticket for several thousand days, your chances of winning the lottery are fairly good. And if you have an infinite number of days to use your ticket, you are guaranteed to win. (Well, you might not be around to collect, but your ticket will eventually win.) ;)
4.3.2. The same principle can be applied to Nostradamus. (Very few of Nostradamus' predictions contain precise dates. That gives him a near-infinite time frame to predict something.)
4.3.3. Well, almost. In his letter to his son, Nostradamus writes: "The work comprises prophecies from today to the year 3797." Thus, if Nostradamus finished his project in the year 1558, that means he had 2,239 years for everything to come true. That's 817,235 days (and 818,130.6 days, if you count leap year).
4.4. Combine the 2
4.4.1. If we multiply the number of days (818,130.6) by our base (942), then Nostradamus has 770,679,025.2 (over 770 million) chances to get something right.
4.4.2. If we multiply the number of days (818,130.6) by our other base (3,768), then Nostradamus has 3,082,716,100.8 (over 3 billion) chances to get something right.
4.4.3. I'd say the odds are in his favor.
5. Some prophecies contained precise dates
5.1. There are only 7 quatrains (out of 942) that are associated with precise dates -- and one of those dates is a date in the past (6:2 talks about the year 703). Keeping in mind that Nostradamus wrote in the 1500s, there are only 6 quatrains (out of 942) that give precise dates in the future. And as far as I can tell, all 6 of them are failed prophecies. One of them was supposed to take place in the year 1999 (see 10:77). I was alive in 1999, and I think I would've noticed the "king of the Mongols" coming back to life during my lifetime. I'm fairly sure that didn't happen, thus I'm fairly sure that this is a failed prophecy.
5.2. Below I've quoted the 7 quatrains that contain precise dates. I don't think any of them actually took place, thus, I consider them all to be failures. But I might be wrong. If anyone has any new information to support anything in any of these quatrains, please let me know.
5.3. exact dates
1:49 = the year 1700
Long before these happenings
the people of the East, influenced by the Moon,
in the year 1700 will cause many to be carried away,
and will almost subdue the Northern area.
3:77 = the year 1727
The third climate included under Aries
The year 1727 in October,
The King of Persia captured by those of Egypt:
Conflict, death, loss: to the cross great shame.
6:2 = the year 703
In the year five hundred eighty more or less,
One will await a very strange century:
In the year seven hundred and three the heavens witness thereof,
That several kingdoms one to five will make a change.
6:54 = the year 1607
At daybreak at the second crowing of the cock,
Those of Tunis, of Fez and of Bougie,
By the Arabs the King of Morocco captured,
The year sixteen hundred and seven, of the Liturgy.
8:71 = the year 1607
The number of astrologers will grow so great,
that they will be driven out, banned and their books censored.
In the year 1607 by sacred assemblies
so that none will be safe from the holy ones.
10:77 = the year 1999
The year 1999, seventh month,
From the sky will come a great King of Terror:
To bring back to life the great King of the Mongols,
Before and after Mars to reign by good luck.
10:91 = the year 1609
In the year 1609, Roman clergy,
At the beginning of the year you will hold an election:
Of one gray and black issued from Campania,
Never was there one so wicked as he.
6. The rest are vague
6.1. All of the rest of the quatrains (the remaining 935) are too vague to declare "failures," because one can always say that they just haven't happened yet. We'll have to wait until the year 3,797 to declare them all failures. However, we can group them into different categories of vagueness. For example, some quatrains give an exact location (some mention either the name of a city, or a country or region, or mention a specific mountain range or river).
6.2. I found 536 such quatrains (See 1.05, 1.06, 1.07, 1.08, 1.09, 1.11, 1.12, 1.18, 1.19, 1.20, 1.22, 1.24, 1.26, 1.27, 1.28, 1.31, 1.34, 1.40, 1.51, 1.60, 1.61, 1.66, 1.70, 1.71, 1.72, 1.73, 1.74, 1.75, 1.77, 1.78, 1.79, 1.80, 1.82, 1.83, 1.87, 1.89, 1.90, 1.93, 1.98, 1.100, 2.01, 2.02, 2.03, 2.04, 2.14, 2.15, 2.16, 2.17, 2.21, 2.24, 2.24, 2.25, 2.26, 2.29, 2.30, 2.31, 2.32, 2.33, 2.34, 2.39, 2.43, 2.49, 2.50, 2.51, 2.52, 2.59, 2.60, 2.61, 2.63, 2.64, 2.65, 2.68, 2.71, 2.72, 2.73, 2.74, 2.76, 2.79, 2.83, 2.84, 2.85, 2.86, 2.87, 2.88, 2.90, 2.93, 2.94, 2.96, 3.03, 3.08, 3.09, 3.12, 3.14, 3.15, 3.16, 3.17, 3.18, 3.19, 3.20, 3.21, 3.23, 3.24, 3.25, 3.27, 3.31, 3.32, 3.33, 3.37, 3.38, 3.39, 3.42, 3.43, 3.45, 3.47, 3.49, 3.51, 3.52, 3.53, 3.54, 3.55, 3.56, 3.57, 3.58, 3.60, 3.61, 3.62, 3.63, 3.64, 3.66, 3.67, 3.68, 3.69, 3.70, 3.74, 3.75, 3.76, 3.77, 3.78, 3.79, 3.80, 3.82, 3.83, 3.85, 3.86, 3.87, 3.88, 3.89, 3.90, 3.92, 3.93, 3.97, 3.99, 3.100, 4.01, 4.02, 4.03, 4.04, 4.05, 4.09, 4.12, 4.17, 4.19, 4.23, 4.27, 4.34, 4.35, 4.36, 4.37, 4.38, 4.39, 4.42, 4.44, 4.46, 4.48, 4.51, 4.54, 4.58, 4.59, 4.60, 4.61, 4.63, 4.66, 4.68, 4.69, 4.70, 4.72, 4.73, 4.74, 4.76, 4.78, 4.79, 4.81, 4.82, 4.84, 4.86, 4.89, 4.90, 4,91, 4.93, 4.94, 4.95, 4.96, 4.97, 4.98, 4.100, 5.01, 5.03, 5.06, 5.11, 5.12, 5.13, 5.14, 5.16, 5.17, 5.20, 5.22, 5.23, 5.25, 5.26, 5.27, 5.28, 5.29, 5.30, 5.33, 5.34, 5.35, 5.39, 5.40, 5.42, 5.43, 5.46, 5.47, 5.48, 5.49, 5.50, 5.51, 5.54, 5.55, 5.57, 5.58, 5.59, 5.61, 5.62, 5.63, 5.64, 5.67, 5.68, 5.69, 5.70, 5.71, 5.73, 5.74, 5.76, 5.77, 5.80, 5.82, 5.84, 5.85, 5.86, 5.87, 5.88, 5.89, 5.90, 5.91, 5.92, 5.93, 5.94, 5.95, 5.98, 5.99, 5.100, 6.01, 6.03, 6.04, 6.05, 6.06, 6.07, 6.12, 6.15, 6.16, 6.19, 6.20, 6.21, 6.22, 6.23, 6.26, 6.27, 6.28, 6.30, 6.31, 6.36, 6.38, 6.39, 6.40, 6.41, 6.42, 6.43, 6.44, 6.45, 6.47, 6.48, 6.49, 6.52, 6.53, 6.54, 6.55, 6.56, 6.58, 6.60, 6.62, 6.64, 6.66, 6.68, 6.73, 6.75, 6.77, 6.78, 6.79, 6.80, 6.81, 6.83, 6.84, 6.85, 6.86, 6.87, 6.88, 6.97, 6.99, 7.03, 7.04, 7.05, 7.06, 7.08, 7.10, 7.12, 7.15, 7.19, 7.20, 7.21, 7.22, 7.24, 7.26, 7.27, 7.29, 7.30, 7.31, 7.32, 7.34, 7.36, 7.37, 7.39, 8.01, 8.02, 8.03, 8.04, 8.05, 8.06, 8.07, 8.08, 8.09, 8.10, 8.11, 8.12, 8.15, 8.18, 8.22, 8.24, 8.26, 8.30, 8.31, 8.32, 8.33, 8.34, 8.35, 8.36, 8.37, 8.38, 8.39, 8.40, 8.42, 8.44, 8.46, 8.47, 8.48, 8.49, 8.50, 8.51, 8.52, 8.54, 8.56, 8.58, 8.60, 8.62, 8.67, 8.70, 8.72, 8.75, 8.76, 8.81, 8.83, 8.84, 8.85, 8.86, 8.88, 8.91, 8.93, 8.94, 9.02, 9.03, 9.05, 9.06, 9.07, 9.09, 9.10, 9.13, 9.14, 9.15, 9.16, 9.18, 9.19, 9.20, 9.21, 9.22, 9.23, 9.24, 9.25, 9.26, 9.27, 9.28, 9.29, 9.30, 9.31, 9.32, 9.33, 9.34, 9.35, 9.37, 9.38, 9.39, 9.40, 9.41, 9.42, 9.45, 9.46, 9.49, 9.50, 9.52, 9.54, 9.55, 9.56, 9.57, 9.58, 9.59, 9.60, 9.61, 9.63, 9.64, 9.67, 9.68, 9.69, 9.70, 9.71, 9.72, 9.73, 9.74, 9.75, 9.78, 9.80, 9.85, 9.86, 9.87, 9.88, 9.89, 9.90, 9.90, 9.91, 9.93, 9.94, 9.95, 9.98, 10.05, 10.06, 10.07, 10.08, 10.09, 10.11, 10.13, 10.14, 10.16, 10.17, 10.20, 10.21, 10.23, 10.24, 10.25, 10.26, 10.29, 10.31, 10.33, 10.34, 10.37, 10.38, 10.40, 10.41, 10.44, 10.45, 10.46, 10.47, 10.48, 10.50, 10.51, 10.52, 10.54, 10.56, 10.58, 10.59, 10.60, 10.61, 10.62, 10.63, 10.64, 10.65, 10.66, 10.75, 10.78, 10.79, 10.83, 10.86, 10.87, 10.88, 10.91, 10.92, 10.93, 10.94, 10.95, 10.100).
6.3. That is, about 56.90% of the quatrains mention exact locations (536 / 942 = 0.5690 * 100 = 56.90%). Thus, we have 4 categories of vagueness:
6.4. Mitchell's Vagueness Scale
6.4.1. Quatrains that contain both an exact location AND an exact date -- there are only 3 of these.
6.4.2. Quatrains that contain an exact date (but NOT an exact location) -- there are only 4 of these.
6.4.3. Quatrains that contain an exact location (but NOT an exact date) -- there are 533 of these.
6.4.4. Quatrains that contain NEITHER an exact location NOR an exact date -- there are 402 of these.
7. vague and boring
7.1. Some of the quatrains that appear in levels 3 and 4 of my Vagueness Scale are so vague and boring that they could apply to any time and any place. They reference colors, animals, characters from greek mythology, planets, constellations, random initials, and some obscure words that Nostradamus might've just made up!
7.2. Most of these quatrains talk about "horrible things" that'll happen -- as if "horrible things" don't happen to someone, somewhere every day!
7.3. I'll give 3 examples from each "boring" category. You can judge for yourself if these prophecies are "too vague" or not.
7.4. colors
1:3 = the reds and the whites will rule wrongly
When the litters are overturned by the whirlwind
and faces are covered by cloaks,
the new republic will be troubled by its people.
At this time the reds and the whites will rule wrongly.
6:65 = gray and brown in half-opened war
Gray and brown in half-opened war,
By night they will be assaulted and pillaged:
The brown captured will pass through the lock,
His temple opened, two slipped in the plaster.
9:41 = the black duke with a red feather
The great "Chyren" will seize Avignon,
From Rome letters in honey full of bitterness:
Letter and embassy to leave from Chanignon,
Carpentras taken by a black duke with a red feather.
7.5. animals
1:23 = Boar vs Leopard
In the third month, at sunrise,
the Boar and the Leopard meet on the battlefield.
The fatigued Leopard looks up to heaven
and sees an eagle playing around the sun.
5:68 = Camel vs Cock
In the Danube and of the Rhine will come to drink
The great Camel, not repenting it:
Those of the Rhône to tremble, and much more so those of the Loire,
and near the Alps the Cock will ruin him.
6:71 = through Lions and Eagles
When they will come to give the last rites to the great King
Before he has entirely given up the ghost:
He who will come to grieve over him the least,
Through Lions, Eagles, cross crown sold.
7.6. greek myths
2:90 = Castor and Pollux
Though life and death the realm of Hungary changed:
The law will be more harsh than service:
Their great city cries out with howls and laments,
Castor and Pollux enemies in the arena.
8:31 = Bellerophon and Proteus
The crusader brother through impassioned love
will cause Bellerophon to die through Proteus;
the fleet for a thousand years, the maddened woman,
the potion drunk, both of them then die.
10:75 = Hermes
Long awaited he will never return
In Europe, he will appear in Asia:
One of the league issued from the great Hermes,
And he will grow over all the Kings of the East.
7.7. planets & constellations
3:96 = Saturn in Leo (Feb 13th)
The Chief of Fossano will have his throat cut
By the leader of the bloodhound and greyhound:
The deed executed by those of the Tarpeian Rock,
Saturn in Leo February 13.
5:14 = Saturn and Mars in Leo
Saturn and Mars in Leo Spain captive,
By the African chief trapped in the conflict,
Near Malta, Herod taken alive,
And the Roman scepter will be struck down by the Cock.
10:67 = Mercury, Mars, Venus, Saturn, and Jupiter
A very mighty trembling in the month of May,
Saturn in Capricorn, Jupiter and Mercury in Taurus:
Venus also, Cancer, Mars in Virgo,
Hail will fall larger than an egg.
7.8. random initials
1:81 = K. Th. L.
Nine will be set apart from the human flock,
separated from judgment and advise.
Their fate is to be divided as they depart.
K. Th. L. dead, banished and scattered.
8:66 = D. M.
When the inscription D.M. is found
in the ancient cave, revealed by a lamp.
Law, the King and Prince Ulpian tried,
the Queen and Duke in the pavilion under cover.
10:96 = A and A
The Religion of the name of the seas will win out
Against the sect of the son of Adaluncatif:
The stubborn, lamented sect will be afraid
Of the two wounded by A and A.
7.9. obscure / made up words
6:46 = Nonseggle?
A just one will be sent back again into exile,
Through pestilence to the confines of Nonseggle,
His reply to the red one will cause him to be misled,
The King withdrawing to the Frog and the Eagle.
8:48 = Chaldondon'salva tierra?
Saturn in Cancer, Jupiter with Mars
in February Chaldondon'salva tierra.
Sierra Morena besieged on three sides
near Verbiesque, war and mortal conflict.
10:69 = thicket of Ambellon?
The shining deed of the old one exalted anew,
Through the South and Aquilon they will be very great:
Raised by his own sister great crowds,
Fleeing, murdered in the thicket of Ambellon.
7.10. comments
7.10.1. I am not convinced of the predictive power of any of these prophecies. They are too vague to be useful. If something is so vague that it predicts everything, then it's not really predicting anything.
7.10.2. I would be more convinced if Nostradamus predicted something more concrete. For example, Nostradamus wrote a lot about the planets.
7.10.2.1. He mentions Mercury in 2.65, 3.03, 4.28, 4.29, 4.97, 5.93, 9.12, 9.55, 9.73, 10.67, 10.79.
7.10.2.2. He mentions Venus in 4.28, 4.33, 4.84, 4.97, 5.11, 5.24, 5.25, 5.53, 5.72, 8.32, 10.08, 10.28, 10.67.
7.10.2.3. He mentions Mars in 1.15, 1.83, 2.48, 2.61, 3.03, 3.32, 3.56, 4.33, 4.67, 4.72, 4.84, 4.97, 4.100, 5.14, 5.23, 5.25, 5.42, 5.77, 5.91, 6.04, 6.24, 6.25, 6.35, 6.49, 6.50, 6.87, 7.02, 8.02, 8.46, 8.48, 8.49, 8.85, 9.55, 9.63, 9.73, 10.67, 10.72.
7.10.2.4. He mentions Jupiter in 1.51, 2.98, 4.33, 5.24, 5.77, 6.35, 8.48, 8.49, 9.55, 10.67.
7.10.2.5. He mentions Saturn in 1.83, 2.48, 2.65, 3.92, 3.96, 4.67, 4.86, 5.11, 5.14, 5.24, 5.62, 5.87, 5.91, 6.17, 8.48, 8.49, 9.44, 9.72, 10.50, 10.67.
7.10.2.6. And he mentions "Neptune" in 1.77, 2.78, 3.01, 6.90 -- but in each case here, it looks like he's talking about the Roman god Neptune (not the planet Neptune).
7.10.2.7. However, Nostradamus never mentions anything about the planets Uranus or Pluto. That would've been a good thing to "predict" at the time, since those planets weren't discovered until the 1780s (for Uranus), and the 1930s (for Pluto). Had Nostradamus predicted something about a "new planet", I'd probably take him more seriously. ;)
8. vague and HILAROUS!
8.1. There are also a few quatrains that appear in levels 3 and 4 of my Vagueness Scale that I think are absolutely hilarious!
8.2. I've grouped them into 3 main categories: Sky Stuff, Monsters, and "Other".
8.3. Sky Stuff
1:17 = 40 years w/ no rainbows?
For forty years the rainbow will not be seen.
For forty years it will be seen every day.
The dry earth will grow more parched,
and there will be great floods when it is seen.
1:46 = sky fire for 3 nights
Very near Auch, Lectoure and Mirande
a great fire will fall from the sky for three nights.
The cause will appear both stupefying and marvelous;
shortly afterwards there will be an earthquake.
2:35 = the Sun will be reduced
The fire by night will take hold in two lodgings,
Several within suffocated and roasted.
It will happen near two rivers as one:
Sun, Sagittarius and Capricorn all will be reduced.
2:41 = 2 Suns will appear
The great star will burn for seven days,
The cloud will cause two suns to appear:
The big mastiff will howl all night
When the great pontiff will change country.
2:65 = Saturn will fade :(
The sloping park great calamity
To be done through Hesperia and Insubria:
The fire in the ship, plague and captivity,
Mercury in Sagittarius Saturn will fade.
8.4. Monsters and Creatures
1:58 = 2 heads, 4 arms
Through a slit in the belly a creature will be born with two heads
and four arms: it will survive for some few years.
The day that Alquiloie celebrates his festivals
Fossana, Turin and the ruler of Ferrara will follow.
1:64 = ½ pig man?
At night they will think they have seen the sun,
when the see the half pig man:
Noise, screams, battles seen fought in the skies.
The brute beasts will heard to speak.
2:67 = forked nose?
The blond one will come to compromise the fork-nosed one
Through the duel and will chase him out:
The exiles within he will have restored,
Committing the strongest to the marine places.
2:73 = 1 head, 3 arms
The shore of Lake Garda to Lake Fucino,
Taken from the Lake of Geneva to the port of L'Orguion:
Born with three arms the predicted warlike image,
Through three crowns to the great Endymion.
3:21 = fish with human face
In the Conca by the Adriatic Sea
There will appear a horrible fish,
With face human and its end aquatic,
Which will be taken without the hook.
3:69 = ½ pig man had a kid!
The great army led by a young man,
It will come to surrender itself into the hands of the enemies:
But the old one born to the half-pig,
He will cause Châlon and Mâcon to be friends.
5:9 = bearded lady
The great arch demolished down to its base,
By the chief captive his friend forestalled,
He will be born of the lady with hairy forehead and face,
Then through cunning the Duke overtaken by death.
5:45 = Bronzebeard the hawk-nose!
The great Empire will soon be desolated
And transferred to near the Ardennes:
The two bastards beheaded by the oldest one,
And Bronzebeard the hawk-nose will reign.
6:44 = monster born of bear and sow
By night the Rainbow will appear for Nantes,
By marine arts they will stir up rain:
In the Gulf of Arabia a great fleet will plunge to the bottom,
In Saxony a monster will be born of a bear and a sow.
8:15 = she-male / transvestite
Great exertions towards the North by a man-woman
to vex Europe and almost all the Universe.
The two eclipses will be put into such a rout
that they will reinforce life or death for the Hungarians.
9:3 = 2 double-headed monsters
The "great cow" at Racenna in great trouble,
Led by fifteen shut up at Fornase:
At Rome there will be born two double-headed monsters,
Blood, fire, flood, the greatest ones in space.
8.5. "Other"
1:65 = wounded @ tennis?
A child without hands, never so great a thunderbolt seen,
the royal child wounded at a game of tennis.
At the well lightning strikes, joining together
three trussed up in the middle under the oaks.
3:17 = Church people commit scandals
Mount Aventine will be seen to burn at night:
The sky very suddenly dark in Flanders:
When the monarch will chase his nephew,
Then Church people will commit scandals.
3:44 = domesticated animal speaks!
When the animal domesticated by man
After great pains and leaps will come to speak:
The lightning to the virgin will be very harmful,
Taken from earth and suspended in the air.
5:44 = red one taken by pirates!
On sea the red one will be taken by pirates,
Because of him peace will be troubled:
Anger and greed will he expose through a false act,
The army doubled by the great Pontiff.
9:76 = Young Baldy?
With the rapacious and blood-thirsty king,
Issued from the pallet of the inhuman Nero:
Between two rivers military hand left,
He will be murdered by Young Baldy.
10:7 = conflict for Nancy
The great conflict that they are preparing for Nancy,
The Macedonian will say I subjugate all:
The British Isle in anxiety over wine and salt,
"Hem. mi." Philip two Metz will not hold for long.
10:66 = America!
The chief of London through the realm of America,
The Isle of Scotland will be tried by frost:
King and Reb will face an Antichrist so false,
That he will place them in the conflict all together.
8.6. comments
8.6.1. A lot of these just sound stupid. A creature with 2 heads and 4 arms (1:58)? A fish with a human face (3:21)? A monster born of a bear (6:44)? These sound like bad nursery rhymes.
8.6.2. And some of them are so trivial! A child wounded at tennis (1:65)? A "red one" taken by pirates (5:44)? It's hard to take them seriously.
8.6.3. And what exactly _is_ a "forked-nose" (2:67)?
8.6.4. Also, has there ever been a time when "Church people" did NOT commit scandals (3:17)? ;)
8.6.5. I suppose it's comments like THAT that prompted Nostradamus to write so hatefully in one of his later quatrains:
6:100 = Nostradamus sounds PISSED!
INCANTATION OF THE LAW AGAINST INEPT CRITICS
Let those who read this verse consider it profoundly,
Let the profane and the ignorant herd keep away:
And far away all Astrologers, Idiots and Barbarians,
May he who does otherwise be subject to the sacred rite.
8.6.5.1. (It sounds like some people in Nostradamus' day were making fun of him, too).
8.6.5.2. NOTE TO SELF: when all else fails, calling your critics "inept", "ignorant", and "idiotic" is always easier than confronting their arguments. ;)
8.6.6. I was surprised to see the word "America" used only once in quatrain 10:66. Again, that seems like something Nostradamus could've predicted that could've actually been confirmed. Had Nostradamus predicted a "world power" to appear in America (or maybe a "President" or even a "King" of America), I'd probably take him more seriously.
9. main point(s)
9.1. To summarize, I see 3 main problems with the predictions of Nostradamus. They are too vague (with their colors and animals and wide array of random things), they are too numerous (if you have 942 quatrains, you're bound to get _something_ right), and they are open-ended (which greatly magnifies their probability of getting _something_ right).
9.2. I think some biblical prophecies share the same problems. If you add up all the possible places in the Old Testament where a messianic prophecy _could_ be, you'll get a comparably large number. For example:
9.2.1. There are 150 psalms in the book of Psalms. Each psalm contains about 16 verses (I actually counted them one day, there are 2,452 verses in the book of Psalms alone).
9.2.2. If you combine the 2,000+ verses from Psalms, with all the verses in the books of Isaiah, Jeremiah, Ezekiel, Daniel, Hosea, Joel, Amos, Obadiah, Jonah, Micah, Nahum, Habakkuk, Zephaniah, Haggai, Zechariah, and Malachi ... I think you'll come up with a comparatively large number of "possible prophecies".
9.2.3. Again, I don't think all messianic prophecies are comparable to Nostradamus prophecies. But I do think some of the prophecies listed here (for example, Psalm 16:10, 34:20, 68:18, 69:21, 110:1, 118:2, Micah 5:2, Zechariah 11:12, Malachi 3:1, etc), share the same problems as Nostradamus' prophecies.
cheers,
MITCHELL
~ click here for an introduction (and for links to previous SSMFs) ~
2. Why is this an SSMF?
2.1. About 2 months ago I started discussing messianic prophecy with pommy, here. I compared some messianic prophecies with the prophecies of Nostradamus. [NOTE: I do not think all messianic prophecies are comparable with the prophecies of Nostradamus].
2.2. Much to my surprise, my comparison had no effect on pommy. When I asked him if he was familiar with Nostradamus, he answered, "Roughly. He predicted the worlds end round the turn of the millenium didn't he? As well as several significant events?"
2.3. Nostradamus did not predict the world's end around the year 2000, and I don't think he accurately predict much of anything.
2.4. The way I see it, if you cannot debunk Nostradamus, then there's no way you can debunk messianic prophecy (you have to learn the basics first).
2.5. Thus, today I would like to teach the basics. :)
3. Brief background on Nostradamus
According to sacred-texts.com: "The renowned prophet Nostradamus (Michel de Nostradame) was born on December 14, 1503 in St. Remy, Provence, France. ... Nostradamus began to write his prophetic verses in the city of Salon, in 1554. They are divided into ten sections called Centuries (which refers to the number of verses in each section, not to a unit of 100 years). The Centuries were published in 1555 and 1558, and have been in print continuously ever since."
4. 3 main problems
I have 3 main problems with Nostradamus' prophecies: they are too vague, too numerous, and too open-ended. If you have a large enough pool of prophecies to pick from, eventually, you're going to find something that sort-of sounds like it almost-happened at least once in recorded history. Nostradamus wrote 10 of these Centuries. Each Century contains 100 quatrains (except for Century 7, which only has 42). Thus, there are 942 quatrains total. Each quatrain contains 4 verses. Thus, there are 3,768 verses total.
4.1. Stats
4.1.1. Using 942 as our "total number of prophecies," if Nostradamus predicted 10 events correctly, that would mean he was "right" approximately 1% of the time (10 out of 942 = 0.0106 * 100 = 1.06%). Conversely, it would mean he was "wrong" about 99% of the time.
4.1.2. Using 3,768 as our total, if Nostradamus predicted 10 events correctly, that would mean he was "right" approximately 0% of the time (10 out of 3,768 = 0.0026 * 100 = 0.26%). Conversely, it would mean he was "wrong" about 100% of the time.
4.2. The Lottery Fallacy
4.2.1. If you buy a single lottery ticket, your chances of winning the lottery are very slim. But if you buy 2 tickets, your odds increase. If you buy 4 tickets, your odds increase more. If you buy several thousand tickets, your chances of winning the lottery are fairly good. If you buy several billion tickets, you are guaranteed to win.
4.2.2. The same principle can be applied to Nostradamus.
4.3. The Open-Ended Lottery Fallacy
4.3.1. If you buy a single lottery ticket, your chances of winning a lottery that takes place on day X is very slim. However, if you're able to use the same lottery ticket that you used on day X on another lottery that takes place on day Y, then your chances of winning increase. If you can use the same ticket on days W, X, Y, and Z, your odds increase more. If you can use the same ticket for several thousand days, your chances of winning the lottery are fairly good. And if you have an infinite number of days to use your ticket, you are guaranteed to win. (Well, you might not be around to collect, but your ticket will eventually win.) ;)
4.3.2. The same principle can be applied to Nostradamus. (Very few of Nostradamus' predictions contain precise dates. That gives him a near-infinite time frame to predict something.)
4.3.3. Well, almost. In his letter to his son, Nostradamus writes: "The work comprises prophecies from today to the year 3797." Thus, if Nostradamus finished his project in the year 1558, that means he had 2,239 years for everything to come true. That's 817,235 days (and 818,130.6 days, if you count leap year).
4.4. Combine the 2
4.4.1. If we multiply the number of days (818,130.6) by our base (942), then Nostradamus has 770,679,025.2 (over 770 million) chances to get something right.
4.4.2. If we multiply the number of days (818,130.6) by our other base (3,768), then Nostradamus has 3,082,716,100.8 (over 3 billion) chances to get something right.
4.4.3. I'd say the odds are in his favor.
5. Some prophecies contained precise dates
5.1. There are only 7 quatrains (out of 942) that are associated with precise dates -- and one of those dates is a date in the past (6:2 talks about the year 703). Keeping in mind that Nostradamus wrote in the 1500s, there are only 6 quatrains (out of 942) that give precise dates in the future. And as far as I can tell, all 6 of them are failed prophecies. One of them was supposed to take place in the year 1999 (see 10:77). I was alive in 1999, and I think I would've noticed the "king of the Mongols" coming back to life during my lifetime. I'm fairly sure that didn't happen, thus I'm fairly sure that this is a failed prophecy.
5.2. Below I've quoted the 7 quatrains that contain precise dates. I don't think any of them actually took place, thus, I consider them all to be failures. But I might be wrong. If anyone has any new information to support anything in any of these quatrains, please let me know.
5.3. exact dates
1:49 = the year 1700
Long before these happenings
the people of the East, influenced by the Moon,
in the year 1700 will cause many to be carried away,
and will almost subdue the Northern area.
3:77 = the year 1727
The third climate included under Aries
The year 1727 in October,
The King of Persia captured by those of Egypt:
Conflict, death, loss: to the cross great shame.
6:2 = the year 703
In the year five hundred eighty more or less,
One will await a very strange century:
In the year seven hundred and three the heavens witness thereof,
That several kingdoms one to five will make a change.
6:54 = the year 1607
At daybreak at the second crowing of the cock,
Those of Tunis, of Fez and of Bougie,
By the Arabs the King of Morocco captured,
The year sixteen hundred and seven, of the Liturgy.
8:71 = the year 1607
The number of astrologers will grow so great,
that they will be driven out, banned and their books censored.
In the year 1607 by sacred assemblies
so that none will be safe from the holy ones.
10:77 = the year 1999
The year 1999, seventh month,
From the sky will come a great King of Terror:
To bring back to life the great King of the Mongols,
Before and after Mars to reign by good luck.
10:91 = the year 1609
In the year 1609, Roman clergy,
At the beginning of the year you will hold an election:
Of one gray and black issued from Campania,
Never was there one so wicked as he.
6. The rest are vague
6.1. All of the rest of the quatrains (the remaining 935) are too vague to declare "failures," because one can always say that they just haven't happened yet. We'll have to wait until the year 3,797 to declare them all failures. However, we can group them into different categories of vagueness. For example, some quatrains give an exact location (some mention either the name of a city, or a country or region, or mention a specific mountain range or river).
6.2. I found 536 such quatrains (See 1.05, 1.06, 1.07, 1.08, 1.09, 1.11, 1.12, 1.18, 1.19, 1.20, 1.22, 1.24, 1.26, 1.27, 1.28, 1.31, 1.34, 1.40, 1.51, 1.60, 1.61, 1.66, 1.70, 1.71, 1.72, 1.73, 1.74, 1.75, 1.77, 1.78, 1.79, 1.80, 1.82, 1.83, 1.87, 1.89, 1.90, 1.93, 1.98, 1.100, 2.01, 2.02, 2.03, 2.04, 2.14, 2.15, 2.16, 2.17, 2.21, 2.24, 2.24, 2.25, 2.26, 2.29, 2.30, 2.31, 2.32, 2.33, 2.34, 2.39, 2.43, 2.49, 2.50, 2.51, 2.52, 2.59, 2.60, 2.61, 2.63, 2.64, 2.65, 2.68, 2.71, 2.72, 2.73, 2.74, 2.76, 2.79, 2.83, 2.84, 2.85, 2.86, 2.87, 2.88, 2.90, 2.93, 2.94, 2.96, 3.03, 3.08, 3.09, 3.12, 3.14, 3.15, 3.16, 3.17, 3.18, 3.19, 3.20, 3.21, 3.23, 3.24, 3.25, 3.27, 3.31, 3.32, 3.33, 3.37, 3.38, 3.39, 3.42, 3.43, 3.45, 3.47, 3.49, 3.51, 3.52, 3.53, 3.54, 3.55, 3.56, 3.57, 3.58, 3.60, 3.61, 3.62, 3.63, 3.64, 3.66, 3.67, 3.68, 3.69, 3.70, 3.74, 3.75, 3.76, 3.77, 3.78, 3.79, 3.80, 3.82, 3.83, 3.85, 3.86, 3.87, 3.88, 3.89, 3.90, 3.92, 3.93, 3.97, 3.99, 3.100, 4.01, 4.02, 4.03, 4.04, 4.05, 4.09, 4.12, 4.17, 4.19, 4.23, 4.27, 4.34, 4.35, 4.36, 4.37, 4.38, 4.39, 4.42, 4.44, 4.46, 4.48, 4.51, 4.54, 4.58, 4.59, 4.60, 4.61, 4.63, 4.66, 4.68, 4.69, 4.70, 4.72, 4.73, 4.74, 4.76, 4.78, 4.79, 4.81, 4.82, 4.84, 4.86, 4.89, 4.90, 4,91, 4.93, 4.94, 4.95, 4.96, 4.97, 4.98, 4.100, 5.01, 5.03, 5.06, 5.11, 5.12, 5.13, 5.14, 5.16, 5.17, 5.20, 5.22, 5.23, 5.25, 5.26, 5.27, 5.28, 5.29, 5.30, 5.33, 5.34, 5.35, 5.39, 5.40, 5.42, 5.43, 5.46, 5.47, 5.48, 5.49, 5.50, 5.51, 5.54, 5.55, 5.57, 5.58, 5.59, 5.61, 5.62, 5.63, 5.64, 5.67, 5.68, 5.69, 5.70, 5.71, 5.73, 5.74, 5.76, 5.77, 5.80, 5.82, 5.84, 5.85, 5.86, 5.87, 5.88, 5.89, 5.90, 5.91, 5.92, 5.93, 5.94, 5.95, 5.98, 5.99, 5.100, 6.01, 6.03, 6.04, 6.05, 6.06, 6.07, 6.12, 6.15, 6.16, 6.19, 6.20, 6.21, 6.22, 6.23, 6.26, 6.27, 6.28, 6.30, 6.31, 6.36, 6.38, 6.39, 6.40, 6.41, 6.42, 6.43, 6.44, 6.45, 6.47, 6.48, 6.49, 6.52, 6.53, 6.54, 6.55, 6.56, 6.58, 6.60, 6.62, 6.64, 6.66, 6.68, 6.73, 6.75, 6.77, 6.78, 6.79, 6.80, 6.81, 6.83, 6.84, 6.85, 6.86, 6.87, 6.88, 6.97, 6.99, 7.03, 7.04, 7.05, 7.06, 7.08, 7.10, 7.12, 7.15, 7.19, 7.20, 7.21, 7.22, 7.24, 7.26, 7.27, 7.29, 7.30, 7.31, 7.32, 7.34, 7.36, 7.37, 7.39, 8.01, 8.02, 8.03, 8.04, 8.05, 8.06, 8.07, 8.08, 8.09, 8.10, 8.11, 8.12, 8.15, 8.18, 8.22, 8.24, 8.26, 8.30, 8.31, 8.32, 8.33, 8.34, 8.35, 8.36, 8.37, 8.38, 8.39, 8.40, 8.42, 8.44, 8.46, 8.47, 8.48, 8.49, 8.50, 8.51, 8.52, 8.54, 8.56, 8.58, 8.60, 8.62, 8.67, 8.70, 8.72, 8.75, 8.76, 8.81, 8.83, 8.84, 8.85, 8.86, 8.88, 8.91, 8.93, 8.94, 9.02, 9.03, 9.05, 9.06, 9.07, 9.09, 9.10, 9.13, 9.14, 9.15, 9.16, 9.18, 9.19, 9.20, 9.21, 9.22, 9.23, 9.24, 9.25, 9.26, 9.27, 9.28, 9.29, 9.30, 9.31, 9.32, 9.33, 9.34, 9.35, 9.37, 9.38, 9.39, 9.40, 9.41, 9.42, 9.45, 9.46, 9.49, 9.50, 9.52, 9.54, 9.55, 9.56, 9.57, 9.58, 9.59, 9.60, 9.61, 9.63, 9.64, 9.67, 9.68, 9.69, 9.70, 9.71, 9.72, 9.73, 9.74, 9.75, 9.78, 9.80, 9.85, 9.86, 9.87, 9.88, 9.89, 9.90, 9.90, 9.91, 9.93, 9.94, 9.95, 9.98, 10.05, 10.06, 10.07, 10.08, 10.09, 10.11, 10.13, 10.14, 10.16, 10.17, 10.20, 10.21, 10.23, 10.24, 10.25, 10.26, 10.29, 10.31, 10.33, 10.34, 10.37, 10.38, 10.40, 10.41, 10.44, 10.45, 10.46, 10.47, 10.48, 10.50, 10.51, 10.52, 10.54, 10.56, 10.58, 10.59, 10.60, 10.61, 10.62, 10.63, 10.64, 10.65, 10.66, 10.75, 10.78, 10.79, 10.83, 10.86, 10.87, 10.88, 10.91, 10.92, 10.93, 10.94, 10.95, 10.100).
6.3. That is, about 56.90% of the quatrains mention exact locations (536 / 942 = 0.5690 * 100 = 56.90%). Thus, we have 4 categories of vagueness:
6.4. Mitchell's Vagueness Scale
6.4.1. Quatrains that contain both an exact location AND an exact date -- there are only 3 of these.
6.4.2. Quatrains that contain an exact date (but NOT an exact location) -- there are only 4 of these.
6.4.3. Quatrains that contain an exact location (but NOT an exact date) -- there are 533 of these.
6.4.4. Quatrains that contain NEITHER an exact location NOR an exact date -- there are 402 of these.
7. vague and boring
7.1. Some of the quatrains that appear in levels 3 and 4 of my Vagueness Scale are so vague and boring that they could apply to any time and any place. They reference colors, animals, characters from greek mythology, planets, constellations, random initials, and some obscure words that Nostradamus might've just made up!
7.2. Most of these quatrains talk about "horrible things" that'll happen -- as if "horrible things" don't happen to someone, somewhere every day!
7.3. I'll give 3 examples from each "boring" category. You can judge for yourself if these prophecies are "too vague" or not.
7.4. colors
1:3 = the reds and the whites will rule wrongly
When the litters are overturned by the whirlwind
and faces are covered by cloaks,
the new republic will be troubled by its people.
At this time the reds and the whites will rule wrongly.
6:65 = gray and brown in half-opened war
Gray and brown in half-opened war,
By night they will be assaulted and pillaged:
The brown captured will pass through the lock,
His temple opened, two slipped in the plaster.
9:41 = the black duke with a red feather
The great "Chyren" will seize Avignon,
From Rome letters in honey full of bitterness:
Letter and embassy to leave from Chanignon,
Carpentras taken by a black duke with a red feather.
7.5. animals
1:23 = Boar vs Leopard
In the third month, at sunrise,
the Boar and the Leopard meet on the battlefield.
The fatigued Leopard looks up to heaven
and sees an eagle playing around the sun.
5:68 = Camel vs Cock
In the Danube and of the Rhine will come to drink
The great Camel, not repenting it:
Those of the Rhône to tremble, and much more so those of the Loire,
and near the Alps the Cock will ruin him.
6:71 = through Lions and Eagles
When they will come to give the last rites to the great King
Before he has entirely given up the ghost:
He who will come to grieve over him the least,
Through Lions, Eagles, cross crown sold.
7.6. greek myths
2:90 = Castor and Pollux
Though life and death the realm of Hungary changed:
The law will be more harsh than service:
Their great city cries out with howls and laments,
Castor and Pollux enemies in the arena.
8:31 = Bellerophon and Proteus
The crusader brother through impassioned love
will cause Bellerophon to die through Proteus;
the fleet for a thousand years, the maddened woman,
the potion drunk, both of them then die.
10:75 = Hermes
Long awaited he will never return
In Europe, he will appear in Asia:
One of the league issued from the great Hermes,
And he will grow over all the Kings of the East.
7.7. planets & constellations
3:96 = Saturn in Leo (Feb 13th)
The Chief of Fossano will have his throat cut
By the leader of the bloodhound and greyhound:
The deed executed by those of the Tarpeian Rock,
Saturn in Leo February 13.
5:14 = Saturn and Mars in Leo
Saturn and Mars in Leo Spain captive,
By the African chief trapped in the conflict,
Near Malta, Herod taken alive,
And the Roman scepter will be struck down by the Cock.
10:67 = Mercury, Mars, Venus, Saturn, and Jupiter
A very mighty trembling in the month of May,
Saturn in Capricorn, Jupiter and Mercury in Taurus:
Venus also, Cancer, Mars in Virgo,
Hail will fall larger than an egg.
7.8. random initials
1:81 = K. Th. L.
Nine will be set apart from the human flock,
separated from judgment and advise.
Their fate is to be divided as they depart.
K. Th. L. dead, banished and scattered.
8:66 = D. M.
When the inscription D.M. is found
in the ancient cave, revealed by a lamp.
Law, the King and Prince Ulpian tried,
the Queen and Duke in the pavilion under cover.
10:96 = A and A
The Religion of the name of the seas will win out
Against the sect of the son of Adaluncatif:
The stubborn, lamented sect will be afraid
Of the two wounded by A and A.
7.9. obscure / made up words
6:46 = Nonseggle?
A just one will be sent back again into exile,
Through pestilence to the confines of Nonseggle,
His reply to the red one will cause him to be misled,
The King withdrawing to the Frog and the Eagle.
8:48 = Chaldondon'salva tierra?
Saturn in Cancer, Jupiter with Mars
in February Chaldondon'salva tierra.
Sierra Morena besieged on three sides
near Verbiesque, war and mortal conflict.
10:69 = thicket of Ambellon?
The shining deed of the old one exalted anew,
Through the South and Aquilon they will be very great:
Raised by his own sister great crowds,
Fleeing, murdered in the thicket of Ambellon.
7.10. comments
7.10.1. I am not convinced of the predictive power of any of these prophecies. They are too vague to be useful. If something is so vague that it predicts everything, then it's not really predicting anything.
7.10.2. I would be more convinced if Nostradamus predicted something more concrete. For example, Nostradamus wrote a lot about the planets.
7.10.2.1. He mentions Mercury in 2.65, 3.03, 4.28, 4.29, 4.97, 5.93, 9.12, 9.55, 9.73, 10.67, 10.79.
7.10.2.2. He mentions Venus in 4.28, 4.33, 4.84, 4.97, 5.11, 5.24, 5.25, 5.53, 5.72, 8.32, 10.08, 10.28, 10.67.
7.10.2.3. He mentions Mars in 1.15, 1.83, 2.48, 2.61, 3.03, 3.32, 3.56, 4.33, 4.67, 4.72, 4.84, 4.97, 4.100, 5.14, 5.23, 5.25, 5.42, 5.77, 5.91, 6.04, 6.24, 6.25, 6.35, 6.49, 6.50, 6.87, 7.02, 8.02, 8.46, 8.48, 8.49, 8.85, 9.55, 9.63, 9.73, 10.67, 10.72.
7.10.2.4. He mentions Jupiter in 1.51, 2.98, 4.33, 5.24, 5.77, 6.35, 8.48, 8.49, 9.55, 10.67.
7.10.2.5. He mentions Saturn in 1.83, 2.48, 2.65, 3.92, 3.96, 4.67, 4.86, 5.11, 5.14, 5.24, 5.62, 5.87, 5.91, 6.17, 8.48, 8.49, 9.44, 9.72, 10.50, 10.67.
7.10.2.6. And he mentions "Neptune" in 1.77, 2.78, 3.01, 6.90 -- but in each case here, it looks like he's talking about the Roman god Neptune (not the planet Neptune).
7.10.2.7. However, Nostradamus never mentions anything about the planets Uranus or Pluto. That would've been a good thing to "predict" at the time, since those planets weren't discovered until the 1780s (for Uranus), and the 1930s (for Pluto). Had Nostradamus predicted something about a "new planet", I'd probably take him more seriously. ;)
8. vague and HILAROUS!
8.1. There are also a few quatrains that appear in levels 3 and 4 of my Vagueness Scale that I think are absolutely hilarious!
8.2. I've grouped them into 3 main categories: Sky Stuff, Monsters, and "Other".
8.3. Sky Stuff
1:17 = 40 years w/ no rainbows?
For forty years the rainbow will not be seen.
For forty years it will be seen every day.
The dry earth will grow more parched,
and there will be great floods when it is seen.
1:46 = sky fire for 3 nights
Very near Auch, Lectoure and Mirande
a great fire will fall from the sky for three nights.
The cause will appear both stupefying and marvelous;
shortly afterwards there will be an earthquake.
2:35 = the Sun will be reduced
The fire by night will take hold in two lodgings,
Several within suffocated and roasted.
It will happen near two rivers as one:
Sun, Sagittarius and Capricorn all will be reduced.
2:41 = 2 Suns will appear
The great star will burn for seven days,
The cloud will cause two suns to appear:
The big mastiff will howl all night
When the great pontiff will change country.
2:65 = Saturn will fade :(
The sloping park great calamity
To be done through Hesperia and Insubria:
The fire in the ship, plague and captivity,
Mercury in Sagittarius Saturn will fade.
8.4. Monsters and Creatures
1:58 = 2 heads, 4 arms
Through a slit in the belly a creature will be born with two heads
and four arms: it will survive for some few years.
The day that Alquiloie celebrates his festivals
Fossana, Turin and the ruler of Ferrara will follow.
1:64 = ½ pig man?
At night they will think they have seen the sun,
when the see the half pig man:
Noise, screams, battles seen fought in the skies.
The brute beasts will heard to speak.
2:67 = forked nose?
The blond one will come to compromise the fork-nosed one
Through the duel and will chase him out:
The exiles within he will have restored,
Committing the strongest to the marine places.
2:73 = 1 head, 3 arms
The shore of Lake Garda to Lake Fucino,
Taken from the Lake of Geneva to the port of L'Orguion:
Born with three arms the predicted warlike image,
Through three crowns to the great Endymion.
3:21 = fish with human face
In the Conca by the Adriatic Sea
There will appear a horrible fish,
With face human and its end aquatic,
Which will be taken without the hook.
3:69 = ½ pig man had a kid!
The great army led by a young man,
It will come to surrender itself into the hands of the enemies:
But the old one born to the half-pig,
He will cause Châlon and Mâcon to be friends.
5:9 = bearded lady
The great arch demolished down to its base,
By the chief captive his friend forestalled,
He will be born of the lady with hairy forehead and face,
Then through cunning the Duke overtaken by death.
5:45 = Bronzebeard the hawk-nose!
The great Empire will soon be desolated
And transferred to near the Ardennes:
The two bastards beheaded by the oldest one,
And Bronzebeard the hawk-nose will reign.
6:44 = monster born of bear and sow
By night the Rainbow will appear for Nantes,
By marine arts they will stir up rain:
In the Gulf of Arabia a great fleet will plunge to the bottom,
In Saxony a monster will be born of a bear and a sow.
8:15 = she-male / transvestite
Great exertions towards the North by a man-woman
to vex Europe and almost all the Universe.
The two eclipses will be put into such a rout
that they will reinforce life or death for the Hungarians.
9:3 = 2 double-headed monsters
The "great cow" at Racenna in great trouble,
Led by fifteen shut up at Fornase:
At Rome there will be born two double-headed monsters,
Blood, fire, flood, the greatest ones in space.
8.5. "Other"
1:65 = wounded @ tennis?
A child without hands, never so great a thunderbolt seen,
the royal child wounded at a game of tennis.
At the well lightning strikes, joining together
three trussed up in the middle under the oaks.
3:17 = Church people commit scandals
Mount Aventine will be seen to burn at night:
The sky very suddenly dark in Flanders:
When the monarch will chase his nephew,
Then Church people will commit scandals.
3:44 = domesticated animal speaks!
When the animal domesticated by man
After great pains and leaps will come to speak:
The lightning to the virgin will be very harmful,
Taken from earth and suspended in the air.
5:44 = red one taken by pirates!
On sea the red one will be taken by pirates,
Because of him peace will be troubled:
Anger and greed will he expose through a false act,
The army doubled by the great Pontiff.
9:76 = Young Baldy?
With the rapacious and blood-thirsty king,
Issued from the pallet of the inhuman Nero:
Between two rivers military hand left,
He will be murdered by Young Baldy.
10:7 = conflict for Nancy
The great conflict that they are preparing for Nancy,
The Macedonian will say I subjugate all:
The British Isle in anxiety over wine and salt,
"Hem. mi." Philip two Metz will not hold for long.
10:66 = America!
The chief of London through the realm of America,
The Isle of Scotland will be tried by frost:
King and Reb will face an Antichrist so false,
That he will place them in the conflict all together.
8.6. comments
8.6.1. A lot of these just sound stupid. A creature with 2 heads and 4 arms (1:58)? A fish with a human face (3:21)? A monster born of a bear (6:44)? These sound like bad nursery rhymes.
8.6.2. And some of them are so trivial! A child wounded at tennis (1:65)? A "red one" taken by pirates (5:44)? It's hard to take them seriously.
8.6.3. And what exactly _is_ a "forked-nose" (2:67)?
8.6.4. Also, has there ever been a time when "Church people" did NOT commit scandals (3:17)? ;)
8.6.5. I suppose it's comments like THAT that prompted Nostradamus to write so hatefully in one of his later quatrains:
6:100 = Nostradamus sounds PISSED!
INCANTATION OF THE LAW AGAINST INEPT CRITICS
Let those who read this verse consider it profoundly,
Let the profane and the ignorant herd keep away:
And far away all Astrologers, Idiots and Barbarians,
May he who does otherwise be subject to the sacred rite.
8.6.5.1. (It sounds like some people in Nostradamus' day were making fun of him, too).
8.6.5.2. NOTE TO SELF: when all else fails, calling your critics "inept", "ignorant", and "idiotic" is always easier than confronting their arguments. ;)
8.6.6. I was surprised to see the word "America" used only once in quatrain 10:66. Again, that seems like something Nostradamus could've predicted that could've actually been confirmed. Had Nostradamus predicted a "world power" to appear in America (or maybe a "President" or even a "King" of America), I'd probably take him more seriously.
9. main point(s)
9.1. To summarize, I see 3 main problems with the predictions of Nostradamus. They are too vague (with their colors and animals and wide array of random things), they are too numerous (if you have 942 quatrains, you're bound to get _something_ right), and they are open-ended (which greatly magnifies their probability of getting _something_ right).
9.2. I think some biblical prophecies share the same problems. If you add up all the possible places in the Old Testament where a messianic prophecy _could_ be, you'll get a comparably large number. For example:
9.2.1. There are 150 psalms in the book of Psalms. Each psalm contains about 16 verses (I actually counted them one day, there are 2,452 verses in the book of Psalms alone).
9.2.2. If you combine the 2,000+ verses from Psalms, with all the verses in the books of Isaiah, Jeremiah, Ezekiel, Daniel, Hosea, Joel, Amos, Obadiah, Jonah, Micah, Nahum, Habakkuk, Zephaniah, Haggai, Zechariah, and Malachi ... I think you'll come up with a comparatively large number of "possible prophecies".
9.2.3. Again, I don't think all messianic prophecies are comparable to Nostradamus prophecies. But I do think some of the prophecies listed here (for example, Psalm 16:10, 34:20, 68:18, 69:21, 110:1, 118:2, Micah 5:2, Zechariah 11:12, Malachi 3:1, etc), share the same problems as Nostradamus' prophecies.
cheers,
MITCHELL