The Killing: A New Theory
Okay, I'm sure you've heard just about enough. But I've got one more theory to run by you.
The Becker Problem
Francis Becker is still a good suspect, but I keep leaning away from him because other than him by complete chance ending up on guard detail for Ray, there are just too few connections. Sure, he's out a lot from home and work, sure he's creepy and sadistic, but how do you draw the lines from Trisha, to the dump site, to Adrian, to Ray, to Ashley Kwon, to the medical supplies used to dump the bodies. I just have a hunch that it's not going to end up being Becker. I am probably going to eat those words, but I have another theory I like better so I'm trying to rationalize this in my own mind as much as yours.
Another reason I think Becker may not be the killer is that it carries almost NO emotional weight at all for our two leads because neither of them have ever met him as far as we know, and they don't personally suspect him already (only the viewers do), and they don't know all the crap we know about him that even makes him suspicious, don't even know he's a guard in Ray's block (which, why would they).
One additional connection between Becker and Seward could, perhaps, be Seward's father? I honestly forgot about him until I recently saw a comment where someone was curious about his line about Ray being able to keep his mouth shut. I don't remember the line and will have to go back to verify, and I remember feeling like the scene was kind of a throw-away one, but maybe not. I mean, Ray's father planted the razor, so obviously he's a lifer with some clout and connections in the prison system.
A New Suspect... But Then Again, No
Is it possible Ray's father is the one who killed Trisha? Is that what Ray's keeping his mouth shut about? Unless he was locked up when she died. But why would Ray protect his father, who he obviously has animosity toward. I honestly would be shocked it it turns out that Ray knew the identity of the killer this whole time. Unless it's some kind of guilt thing. Because even though he may not have literally killed her, he might still feel responsible, like it's his fault? Obviously his father isn't killing anyone now, as he is in prison, so if he is responsible for Trisha in any way there'd have to be some kind of conspiracy/team-work happening. I can't imagine, in three episodes, how they'd make that work. Especially since his father has barely been seen or mentioned. (Although the razor thing was there right from the start, and the question of who planted it was always hanging in the air until we found out the truth.)
Adrian, Trisha, and... Skinner?
I know in my last speculation post I talked a lot about Reddick. But the more I think about it, the more I'm leaning away from it. So I keep trying to think about this in a rational way. What makes the most sense story-wise? And I've come up with a pretty good theory.
I had to ask myself; why was Trisha Seward killed? Why was she different? What is the connection between Adrian and the dump site? And the more I think about it, the more I'm convinced Trisha was killed because of what she and Adrian saw -- that's the only connection to the dump site that I can find that makes any sense whatsoever. We know Trisha wasn't at the dump site when she was killed. So how did Adrian know that place?
I believe it's possible that Trisha happened upon the dump site when she was with Adrian (perhaps even saw the killer actively dumping a body there). Maybe they're seen by the killer, maybe they're not, but either way they get away and the killer tracks her down a month or so later (can't remember the exact timeline) and kills her to keep her quiet. But because she's a woman with a family, not a street kid without connections, and people would "go looking" if she turned up missing, he left her there in the apartment instead of his usual MO (but couldn't help taking her ring). If Skinner is the killer, then him winding up on the Trisha Seward murder case isn't a coincidence, and would actually be very beneficial to him. Imagine if Trisha did go to the police about what she saw, and it was Skinner that she talked to, not knowing that he was the killer. He tracks her back to her apartment and kills her to keep his secret.
Trisha was a wake-up call. So he stops killing. But what is the catalyst for Ashley Kwon's death, and starting to kill again? What changed? (That's a question we have to ask no matter who the killer is, why start back again now?) If Skinner's the guy, the answer is probably simple. The letter about Seward's execution, bringing up memories, possibly a feeling of power, knowing he's about to get away with it. That his one tangible connection to these killings is about to go away forever and he can finally be free again. (Free to kill again.)
Maybe Skinner intercepted a call from Bullet too. Or overheard loudmouth Reddick talking about that troublesome CI calling and claiming to have important information. Maybe Bullet is just like Trisha Seward, killed for what she knows and breaking the killers usual MO. Becoming Holder's Trisha Seward.
Ruling out Multiple Killers
I don't think it's a group of people either. Conspiracies involving murders usually involve drugs/politics/blackmail, etc. We've got the child pornography aspect here that could play a role, but the thing is that only one of the girls on the tapes was a victim. The rest are alive with the possible exception of Kallie, but we don't know that yet. And the medical reports say the same knife was used. Passing it around would be pretty complicated. What we have here is a serial killer. I don't see any other conspiracy. How often do serial killers work in groups? It happens, but rarely.
I feel like Skinner is one of the only suspects with the opportunity and the means - especially assuming the rings (and Bullet) were planted - who fits with the story well enough to work as a single killer with no accomplice. Reddick comes close, and is still a possibility, but doesn't quite hit the mark. Becker too, could work, though planting evidence would be more difficult, but he just doesn't fit the story in a neat and tidy way.
[Spoiler for next week's promo]And we know that next week Adrian IDs someone else, possibly while at the prison to visit his dad on the day of his execution -- an execution that I think Skinner is attending -- so he is probably going to be at the prison when Adrian is there.
Another thing. Skinner is pretty much the only potential suspect that the writers haven't blatantly pointed a finger at. That is suspicious enough on its own!
I am sure 10 minutes into the next episode I'll change my mind. But for now, I feel like this is a pretty solid theory.
The Becker Problem
Francis Becker is still a good suspect, but I keep leaning away from him because other than him by complete chance ending up on guard detail for Ray, there are just too few connections. Sure, he's out a lot from home and work, sure he's creepy and sadistic, but how do you draw the lines from Trisha, to the dump site, to Adrian, to Ray, to Ashley Kwon, to the medical supplies used to dump the bodies. I just have a hunch that it's not going to end up being Becker. I am probably going to eat those words, but I have another theory I like better so I'm trying to rationalize this in my own mind as much as yours.
Another reason I think Becker may not be the killer is that it carries almost NO emotional weight at all for our two leads because neither of them have ever met him as far as we know, and they don't personally suspect him already (only the viewers do), and they don't know all the crap we know about him that even makes him suspicious, don't even know he's a guard in Ray's block (which, why would they).
One additional connection between Becker and Seward could, perhaps, be Seward's father? I honestly forgot about him until I recently saw a comment where someone was curious about his line about Ray being able to keep his mouth shut. I don't remember the line and will have to go back to verify, and I remember feeling like the scene was kind of a throw-away one, but maybe not. I mean, Ray's father planted the razor, so obviously he's a lifer with some clout and connections in the prison system.
A New Suspect... But Then Again, No
Is it possible Ray's father is the one who killed Trisha? Is that what Ray's keeping his mouth shut about? Unless he was locked up when she died. But why would Ray protect his father, who he obviously has animosity toward. I honestly would be shocked it it turns out that Ray knew the identity of the killer this whole time. Unless it's some kind of guilt thing. Because even though he may not have literally killed her, he might still feel responsible, like it's his fault? Obviously his father isn't killing anyone now, as he is in prison, so if he is responsible for Trisha in any way there'd have to be some kind of conspiracy/team-work happening. I can't imagine, in three episodes, how they'd make that work. Especially since his father has barely been seen or mentioned. (Although the razor thing was there right from the start, and the question of who planted it was always hanging in the air until we found out the truth.)
Adrian, Trisha, and... Skinner?
I know in my last speculation post I talked a lot about Reddick. But the more I think about it, the more I'm leaning away from it. So I keep trying to think about this in a rational way. What makes the most sense story-wise? And I've come up with a pretty good theory.
I had to ask myself; why was Trisha Seward killed? Why was she different? What is the connection between Adrian and the dump site? And the more I think about it, the more I'm convinced Trisha was killed because of what she and Adrian saw -- that's the only connection to the dump site that I can find that makes any sense whatsoever. We know Trisha wasn't at the dump site when she was killed. So how did Adrian know that place?
I believe it's possible that Trisha happened upon the dump site when she was with Adrian (perhaps even saw the killer actively dumping a body there). Maybe they're seen by the killer, maybe they're not, but either way they get away and the killer tracks her down a month or so later (can't remember the exact timeline) and kills her to keep her quiet. But because she's a woman with a family, not a street kid without connections, and people would "go looking" if she turned up missing, he left her there in the apartment instead of his usual MO (but couldn't help taking her ring). If Skinner is the killer, then him winding up on the Trisha Seward murder case isn't a coincidence, and would actually be very beneficial to him. Imagine if Trisha did go to the police about what she saw, and it was Skinner that she talked to, not knowing that he was the killer. He tracks her back to her apartment and kills her to keep his secret.
Trisha was a wake-up call. So he stops killing. But what is the catalyst for Ashley Kwon's death, and starting to kill again? What changed? (That's a question we have to ask no matter who the killer is, why start back again now?) If Skinner's the guy, the answer is probably simple. The letter about Seward's execution, bringing up memories, possibly a feeling of power, knowing he's about to get away with it. That his one tangible connection to these killings is about to go away forever and he can finally be free again. (Free to kill again.)
Maybe Skinner intercepted a call from Bullet too. Or overheard loudmouth Reddick talking about that troublesome CI calling and claiming to have important information. Maybe Bullet is just like Trisha Seward, killed for what she knows and breaking the killers usual MO. Becoming Holder's Trisha Seward.
Ruling out Multiple Killers
I don't think it's a group of people either. Conspiracies involving murders usually involve drugs/politics/blackmail, etc. We've got the child pornography aspect here that could play a role, but the thing is that only one of the girls on the tapes was a victim. The rest are alive with the possible exception of Kallie, but we don't know that yet. And the medical reports say the same knife was used. Passing it around would be pretty complicated. What we have here is a serial killer. I don't see any other conspiracy. How often do serial killers work in groups? It happens, but rarely.
I feel like Skinner is one of the only suspects with the opportunity and the means - especially assuming the rings (and Bullet) were planted - who fits with the story well enough to work as a single killer with no accomplice. Reddick comes close, and is still a possibility, but doesn't quite hit the mark. Becker too, could work, though planting evidence would be more difficult, but he just doesn't fit the story in a neat and tidy way.
[Spoiler for next week's promo]And we know that next week Adrian IDs someone else, possibly while at the prison to visit his dad on the day of his execution -- an execution that I think Skinner is attending -- so he is probably going to be at the prison when Adrian is there.
Another thing. Skinner is pretty much the only potential suspect that the writers haven't blatantly pointed a finger at. That is suspicious enough on its own!
I am sure 10 minutes into the next episode I'll change my mind. But for now, I feel like this is a pretty solid theory.