(no subject)
This previous Tuesday was a great day in American Politics. A midterm election in the second term of a president is usually one of the best indicators of what the American Public stands for, what the American Public wants to see in coming years. So what did this years election give a mandate to/for?
In short, moderate conservatism.
Lets start by taking a look at Ballot Initiatives.
Abortion -
Only one state had a proposal on their ballot with major interest to voters who consider abortion an important issue: South Dakota. The measure for a complete ban on abortion, only excepting life of the mother, failed. Two states had proposals that would require Parental Notification, both failed, California and Oregon
Same Sex Marriage -
8 states had ballot initiatives to ban gay marriage in this years election. Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Virgina, and Wisconsin. 7 of these states have passed the ban and Arizona is still to close to call. Whats this mean to future hopes of same sex marriage advocates? Well it puts the number of states with same sex marriage bans up to 18 (maybe 19 if Arizona ends up passing.) This leaves no chance of a constitutional Amendment passing the 3/4 rules for a proposed amendment to become allowed. So any hope lies solely in the hands of the Judicial Branch.
Minimum Wage -
Five States raised minimum wage, Colorado, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, and Ohio. This puts the total number of States with Minimum Wage above the federal requirement at 26. What this suggests is that the Democrats Want of increasing the minimum wage stands a pretty fair chance. But, Im going to save the meat of this issue til later.
Marijuana Decriminalization -
3 States had bills regarding Marijuana prohibition, full legalization in Nevada and Colorado, and allowing Medical Marijuana in South Dakota. They all failed.
Illegal Immigration -
Arizona sent a VERY strong message about their opinions dealing with this issue. They passed a bill that bars illegal immigrants from having the option to post bail, passed one that forbids Illegal Immigrants from receiving punitive damages in civil lawsuits, another that limits the amount of governmental assistance is provided to illegal immigrants children's education. They also proclaimed English the Official Language of Arizona.
The House of Representatives -
The Democrats actually won very big here. and despite what the general mood of America is, Liberals also won. Liberal Democrats control House Leadership in every aspect right now. They have the majority, they have the seniority. The places that the democrats picked up House sets is basically everywhere. they picked up house seats in: Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas (!!!!), Kentucky, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. While most of these gains are moderate/conservative democrats, the majority is large enough to allow (atm, this number will probably get larger) 11 democrats to vote against the rest of the party and still pass bills with a simple majority. With the Democratic leadership having control of committee and being able to coordinate with Senate leadership, we will see the Democrats in the House quite able to get legislation passed in the house.
The Senate-
Democrats won in the Senate, Liberals lost. While it is true that most of the democrats in leadership positions in the Senate are liberal Democrats, they need the help of their moderate/conservative contemporaries who have quite a bit of numerical power in the Senate right now.
One of the more obvious races that showed the loss the liberals had on Tuesday was Joe Lieberman, Connecticut Democrats essentially kicked him out of the party due to his Security Conservatism, in return he won the general election by gaining support of independents and Republicans.
Bob Casey, who beat the despicable Rick Santorum, only differs from Santorum in those issues that make Santorum so despicable, Abortion, Same Sex Marriage, and other moral based legislation.
James Webb, Assuming he wins, is as much a democrat as he is a republican, while yes, he will vote with the Dem Caucus most of the time I don't see him doing so on most issues. Secretary of Defense/Secretary of the Navy under Reagan.
Mix these three in with the 'Gang of 13' and you now have a moderate core of 16 Senators. Which will force the Senate to keep themselves in check. especially with such a small margin of power.
The democrats have also outlined what they want to do with the power they have been given:
Minimum Wage -
The Democratic Leadership has stated that they want to introduce a bill that raises the federal minimum wage to 7.25/hour. With as many states as there currently are with minimum wage laws exceeding the federal requirement, getting an increase in minimum wage is quite likely. 7.25/hour, however, will not pass. It's too much money for the poorer states. With the number of moderate democrats from smaller states in the senate, it will be rather difficult to get enough votes for this high of a rise to pass. As it goes through committee they will probably compromise down to 6.25 - 6.50
Enact Recommendations of 9/11 Commission -
They will have no problems dealing with this one.
Reduce Dependence on Foreign Oil -
This is the liberals weakest position, they want to reduce oil dependence, which is great, but they are unwilling to increase our production. While going the alternative fuel routes, is fantastic and necessary, it is also necessary for us to increase our ability to produce more domestic oil in order to cut foreign oil out of the question at the moment. This is where the Democrats have the ability to most show us whether or not they can succeed in bipartisanship.
Lobbying Reform -
I really don't see how much they can reform lobbying without trampling all over the First Amendment clause guaranteeing a right to 'petition the government for a redress of grievances.' If they can find a way to limit the power that lobbyists can flex without destroying the First Amendment then the party will pretty much be golden in 08, but its a very very tough task.
Cut the Interest Rate on Student Loans in half -
PLEASE?! I really hope they can enact this, I think that half might be pretty hard to get through, but another good chance for bipartisanship that I hope the Democrats can pull out.
Streamline Medicares Prescription Drug Program -
I'm not quite certain how they plan to do this so I'm not going to make any predictions.
Expand Federal Funding for Stem Cell Research -
Again because of such a close Senate I am not sure that this is going to be able to pass. Too many conservative Democrats in the Senate that will be forced to vote it down or lose their seat because of it.
Iraq -
Democrats are telling us that they want to look for new ideas to change the direction of Iraq. And so far it looks like there will definitely be a new direction in Iraq. We already have a new Secretary of Defense (an Old Bush 1 guy at that) and Bush looks like he is willing to work with the Democratic Congress in order to help matters out. Whether or not this will be change for the better remains to be seen, but change is good, and I'm quite certain that a cut and run strategy (which is not likely to be suggested seriously) will be shot down very quickly (again, primarily because of the Senate.)
Appeasing the Base -
This is the place where the Democrats have to me most careful. The Liberal Democratic Base is calling for things such as Investigations, Oversight, and Accountability. If the Democrats fall for them calling for major investigations into the White House, a major fallout could occur. In order to win in 08 the Democrats must show that they are able to produce positive legislation, help get us out of Iraq and make good on the promises that they are giving us. If they fall to the Pressure of investigations, then too much time will be spent and they will lose the trust that the American people have given them. Especially if an investigation leads to impeachment. If an investigation leads to impeachment, I guarantee it will come to acquittal in the Senate as the Senate is far from liberal enough to impeach without very solid reasons.
The Big Winners!
Moderates -
Balance in Washington, Conservative issues, and Liberal leaders show that the Country is truly wanting a Centrist look, and that is exactly what it is getting.
Joe Lieberman -
No matter what the numbers looked like, as long as Lieberman won, it was going to be a big win for him. With the extremely close Senate, it means one other thing. Lieberman has the most important vote when it comes to Security Issues, if a security issue is split (49-49) we know that Bernie Sanders will be voting to the left. Its quite likely though that in these issues, Lieberman will vote to the right, casting the Deciding vote over to Dick Cheney.
Nancy Pelosi -
Historical win for her, it means that there is likely a woman speaker of the house for the first time in history.
Dick Cheney -
With a close Senate he may actually get to have a voice in the Senate.
Democrats in General -
Control of Congress gives Democrats a good chance of proving themselves as capable legislators and they will be able to operate under their terms.
Biggest Losers -
Religious Right -
Losing such Moral impositionists as Santorum, Foley (hah), Chocola, Hostettler etc. and losing to Democrats in general has cost them the ability to get anything pushed through the legislature.
Liberals -
The voters came out and voted for Democrats, but they did not vote for Liberals. There are now more moderates in Congress than there were before, there are more states banning Same Sex Marriages, Michigan pulling on Affirmative Action law, Marijuana Legalization unable to pass anywhere this year, shows that it was Conservatives that spoke the loudest.
In short, moderate conservatism.
Lets start by taking a look at Ballot Initiatives.
Abortion -
Only one state had a proposal on their ballot with major interest to voters who consider abortion an important issue: South Dakota. The measure for a complete ban on abortion, only excepting life of the mother, failed. Two states had proposals that would require Parental Notification, both failed, California and Oregon
Same Sex Marriage -
8 states had ballot initiatives to ban gay marriage in this years election. Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Virgina, and Wisconsin. 7 of these states have passed the ban and Arizona is still to close to call. Whats this mean to future hopes of same sex marriage advocates? Well it puts the number of states with same sex marriage bans up to 18 (maybe 19 if Arizona ends up passing.) This leaves no chance of a constitutional Amendment passing the 3/4 rules for a proposed amendment to become allowed. So any hope lies solely in the hands of the Judicial Branch.
Minimum Wage -
Five States raised minimum wage, Colorado, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, and Ohio. This puts the total number of States with Minimum Wage above the federal requirement at 26. What this suggests is that the Democrats Want of increasing the minimum wage stands a pretty fair chance. But, Im going to save the meat of this issue til later.
Marijuana Decriminalization -
3 States had bills regarding Marijuana prohibition, full legalization in Nevada and Colorado, and allowing Medical Marijuana in South Dakota. They all failed.
Illegal Immigration -
Arizona sent a VERY strong message about their opinions dealing with this issue. They passed a bill that bars illegal immigrants from having the option to post bail, passed one that forbids Illegal Immigrants from receiving punitive damages in civil lawsuits, another that limits the amount of governmental assistance is provided to illegal immigrants children's education. They also proclaimed English the Official Language of Arizona.
The House of Representatives -
The Democrats actually won very big here. and despite what the general mood of America is, Liberals also won. Liberal Democrats control House Leadership in every aspect right now. They have the majority, they have the seniority. The places that the democrats picked up House sets is basically everywhere. they picked up house seats in: Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas (!!!!), Kentucky, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. While most of these gains are moderate/conservative democrats, the majority is large enough to allow (atm, this number will probably get larger) 11 democrats to vote against the rest of the party and still pass bills with a simple majority. With the Democratic leadership having control of committee and being able to coordinate with Senate leadership, we will see the Democrats in the House quite able to get legislation passed in the house.
The Senate-
Democrats won in the Senate, Liberals lost. While it is true that most of the democrats in leadership positions in the Senate are liberal Democrats, they need the help of their moderate/conservative contemporaries who have quite a bit of numerical power in the Senate right now.
One of the more obvious races that showed the loss the liberals had on Tuesday was Joe Lieberman, Connecticut Democrats essentially kicked him out of the party due to his Security Conservatism, in return he won the general election by gaining support of independents and Republicans.
Bob Casey, who beat the despicable Rick Santorum, only differs from Santorum in those issues that make Santorum so despicable, Abortion, Same Sex Marriage, and other moral based legislation.
James Webb, Assuming he wins, is as much a democrat as he is a republican, while yes, he will vote with the Dem Caucus most of the time I don't see him doing so on most issues. Secretary of Defense/Secretary of the Navy under Reagan.
Mix these three in with the 'Gang of 13' and you now have a moderate core of 16 Senators. Which will force the Senate to keep themselves in check. especially with such a small margin of power.
The democrats have also outlined what they want to do with the power they have been given:
Minimum Wage -
The Democratic Leadership has stated that they want to introduce a bill that raises the federal minimum wage to 7.25/hour. With as many states as there currently are with minimum wage laws exceeding the federal requirement, getting an increase in minimum wage is quite likely. 7.25/hour, however, will not pass. It's too much money for the poorer states. With the number of moderate democrats from smaller states in the senate, it will be rather difficult to get enough votes for this high of a rise to pass. As it goes through committee they will probably compromise down to 6.25 - 6.50
Enact Recommendations of 9/11 Commission -
They will have no problems dealing with this one.
Reduce Dependence on Foreign Oil -
This is the liberals weakest position, they want to reduce oil dependence, which is great, but they are unwilling to increase our production. While going the alternative fuel routes, is fantastic and necessary, it is also necessary for us to increase our ability to produce more domestic oil in order to cut foreign oil out of the question at the moment. This is where the Democrats have the ability to most show us whether or not they can succeed in bipartisanship.
Lobbying Reform -
I really don't see how much they can reform lobbying without trampling all over the First Amendment clause guaranteeing a right to 'petition the government for a redress of grievances.' If they can find a way to limit the power that lobbyists can flex without destroying the First Amendment then the party will pretty much be golden in 08, but its a very very tough task.
Cut the Interest Rate on Student Loans in half -
PLEASE?! I really hope they can enact this, I think that half might be pretty hard to get through, but another good chance for bipartisanship that I hope the Democrats can pull out.
Streamline Medicares Prescription Drug Program -
I'm not quite certain how they plan to do this so I'm not going to make any predictions.
Expand Federal Funding for Stem Cell Research -
Again because of such a close Senate I am not sure that this is going to be able to pass. Too many conservative Democrats in the Senate that will be forced to vote it down or lose their seat because of it.
Iraq -
Democrats are telling us that they want to look for new ideas to change the direction of Iraq. And so far it looks like there will definitely be a new direction in Iraq. We already have a new Secretary of Defense (an Old Bush 1 guy at that) and Bush looks like he is willing to work with the Democratic Congress in order to help matters out. Whether or not this will be change for the better remains to be seen, but change is good, and I'm quite certain that a cut and run strategy (which is not likely to be suggested seriously) will be shot down very quickly (again, primarily because of the Senate.)
Appeasing the Base -
This is the place where the Democrats have to me most careful. The Liberal Democratic Base is calling for things such as Investigations, Oversight, and Accountability. If the Democrats fall for them calling for major investigations into the White House, a major fallout could occur. In order to win in 08 the Democrats must show that they are able to produce positive legislation, help get us out of Iraq and make good on the promises that they are giving us. If they fall to the Pressure of investigations, then too much time will be spent and they will lose the trust that the American people have given them. Especially if an investigation leads to impeachment. If an investigation leads to impeachment, I guarantee it will come to acquittal in the Senate as the Senate is far from liberal enough to impeach without very solid reasons.
The Big Winners!
Moderates -
Balance in Washington, Conservative issues, and Liberal leaders show that the Country is truly wanting a Centrist look, and that is exactly what it is getting.
Joe Lieberman -
No matter what the numbers looked like, as long as Lieberman won, it was going to be a big win for him. With the extremely close Senate, it means one other thing. Lieberman has the most important vote when it comes to Security Issues, if a security issue is split (49-49) we know that Bernie Sanders will be voting to the left. Its quite likely though that in these issues, Lieberman will vote to the right, casting the Deciding vote over to Dick Cheney.
Nancy Pelosi -
Historical win for her, it means that there is likely a woman speaker of the house for the first time in history.
Dick Cheney -
With a close Senate he may actually get to have a voice in the Senate.
Democrats in General -
Control of Congress gives Democrats a good chance of proving themselves as capable legislators and they will be able to operate under their terms.
Biggest Losers -
Religious Right -
Losing such Moral impositionists as Santorum, Foley (hah), Chocola, Hostettler etc. and losing to Democrats in general has cost them the ability to get anything pushed through the legislature.
Liberals -
The voters came out and voted for Democrats, but they did not vote for Liberals. There are now more moderates in Congress than there were before, there are more states banning Same Sex Marriages, Michigan pulling on Affirmative Action law, Marijuana Legalization unable to pass anywhere this year, shows that it was Conservatives that spoke the loudest.