Repost,, 'cause LJ sucks.
Let's pretend, for just a second, that the high pressure systems that developed that dictated Katrina's track in the last 72 hours didn't do what NWS said they would. Let's pretend that the system over Texas strengthened, and Katrina makes landfall over Fort Walton Beach, Florida, early Monday morning.
Everything south of Highway 20 is gone, buried under a 28 foot storm surge, and battered by 30-40 foot waves on top of it. The South EOC is gone. The entire City of Destin is in the bay. 80% of Eglin base housing is obliterated. Fort Walton Beach south of the Cinco Bayou bridge is reduced to concrete slabs; 70% of the city north of the bridge is equally devastated. Some houses are left standing, although they've had water up to their rooftops, if they're well-built enough to keep their roofs.
The River floods, threatening hundreds of homes. The North County, where Police, Fire, and Emergency Operators are centered, is completely cut off from the South County, where six to ten thousand people living in the poorest sections of Destin and Fort Walton Beach didn't have the money to evacuate. Police, Fire and Emergency vehicle radios in the South County do not have the distance required to communicate with dispatch in Crestview. (This is a well-established fact.) The Nextels that First Responders use are totally inoperative, giving them upwards of a two or three hour response time to emergencies -- if they can even get there. The only communications systems still working are Amateur Radio operators, most of whom evacuated three days before the storm hit.
The bridges fail. The Brooks Bridge is the first to go, followed instantly by the Destin Bridge and the 331 bridge. The Hathaway Bridge in Panama City, 60 miles to the east (less than the distance between Gulfport and New Orleans) is destroyed as well. Destin, Sandestin, Santa Rosa Beach, all of 30A - totally inaccessible. Highway 98 is gone. There are no unflooded ways into the South County for four days.
Food and water are scarce. All three Wal-Marts in the county are instantly looted. Gas is nonexistent, especially since Niceville, the gas-importation hotspot for the surrounding fifty miles, sustains heavy damage. Police morale is low. Looters are being shot by civilians, and it's tough for the remaining authorities to determine who is a looter and who is just acting in prudent self-defense. 60% of the hospital capacity in Okaloosa County is destroyed in the first 4 hours.
By Wednesday, the paramedics, police, and fire fighters are psychologically and physically exhausted from searching all the little towns for the elderly, sick, and wounded. Some towns aren't even accessible yet. The Army Corps of Engineers moves in, and starts creating floating bridges so that First Responders can get to the South County. Meanwhile, local First Responders and the hastily-called up National Guard are doing their damnest to get to people before they starve, or - more likely - dehydrate.
Then FEMA comes in. They halt the Red Cross at the Florida - Alabama border. They cut the emergency communications lines at the Crestview EOC. They send three Wal-Mart trucks full of bottled water back to where they came from. They reject the Coast Guard's offer of a thousand gallons of diesel. The Secretary of Homeland Security and the Director of FEMA are busy claiming to National Media that everything is fine -- there is no crisis, no unrest, and no problem with anything in Okaloosa County.
And this is all before Thursday. Wait until we start recovery, and FEMA issues you funds to repair your roof -- and then demands it back again, like in Ivan.
Is this what you want to happen here, people? Because this is what's happening to New Orleans. And Gulfport.
Write your State and National Congress-critters. Demand change. Write to your local County Commissioners. Demand a plan of action, should a Category 4 or 5 hurricane threaten. Write to the Governor. Write, write WRITE!
Because this could be us. Maybe not this year (or maybe so). Maybe we'll have a week's worth of warning. Maybe we'll have two days.
Everything south of Highway 20 is gone, buried under a 28 foot storm surge, and battered by 30-40 foot waves on top of it. The South EOC is gone. The entire City of Destin is in the bay. 80% of Eglin base housing is obliterated. Fort Walton Beach south of the Cinco Bayou bridge is reduced to concrete slabs; 70% of the city north of the bridge is equally devastated. Some houses are left standing, although they've had water up to their rooftops, if they're well-built enough to keep their roofs.
The River floods, threatening hundreds of homes. The North County, where Police, Fire, and Emergency Operators are centered, is completely cut off from the South County, where six to ten thousand people living in the poorest sections of Destin and Fort Walton Beach didn't have the money to evacuate. Police, Fire and Emergency vehicle radios in the South County do not have the distance required to communicate with dispatch in Crestview. (This is a well-established fact.) The Nextels that First Responders use are totally inoperative, giving them upwards of a two or three hour response time to emergencies -- if they can even get there. The only communications systems still working are Amateur Radio operators, most of whom evacuated three days before the storm hit.
The bridges fail. The Brooks Bridge is the first to go, followed instantly by the Destin Bridge and the 331 bridge. The Hathaway Bridge in Panama City, 60 miles to the east (less than the distance between Gulfport and New Orleans) is destroyed as well. Destin, Sandestin, Santa Rosa Beach, all of 30A - totally inaccessible. Highway 98 is gone. There are no unflooded ways into the South County for four days.
Food and water are scarce. All three Wal-Marts in the county are instantly looted. Gas is nonexistent, especially since Niceville, the gas-importation hotspot for the surrounding fifty miles, sustains heavy damage. Police morale is low. Looters are being shot by civilians, and it's tough for the remaining authorities to determine who is a looter and who is just acting in prudent self-defense. 60% of the hospital capacity in Okaloosa County is destroyed in the first 4 hours.
By Wednesday, the paramedics, police, and fire fighters are psychologically and physically exhausted from searching all the little towns for the elderly, sick, and wounded. Some towns aren't even accessible yet. The Army Corps of Engineers moves in, and starts creating floating bridges so that First Responders can get to the South County. Meanwhile, local First Responders and the hastily-called up National Guard are doing their damnest to get to people before they starve, or - more likely - dehydrate.
Then FEMA comes in. They halt the Red Cross at the Florida - Alabama border. They cut the emergency communications lines at the Crestview EOC. They send three Wal-Mart trucks full of bottled water back to where they came from. They reject the Coast Guard's offer of a thousand gallons of diesel. The Secretary of Homeland Security and the Director of FEMA are busy claiming to National Media that everything is fine -- there is no crisis, no unrest, and no problem with anything in Okaloosa County.
And this is all before Thursday. Wait until we start recovery, and FEMA issues you funds to repair your roof -- and then demands it back again, like in Ivan.
Is this what you want to happen here, people? Because this is what's happening to New Orleans. And Gulfport.
Write your State and National Congress-critters. Demand change. Write to your local County Commissioners. Demand a plan of action, should a Category 4 or 5 hurricane threaten. Write to the Governor. Write, write WRITE!
Because this could be us. Maybe not this year (or maybe so). Maybe we'll have a week's worth of warning. Maybe we'll have two days.