CFUW 119: Robin & Red Robin

Jun 14, 2010 00:33

Makoto-san wanted to talk about your theory.

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Comments 56

maman_a_tort June 14 2010, 04:38:12 UTC
I don't want to say it in public, but based on the way the votes fell in the first ousting your theory could work. The three remaining teams who voted on Kida's team were yours, Saki's and Satoshi's. I don't think you'd point that out if you were wolves, which makes them the most suspicious. We currently have a private post with Satoshi's team and I'd rather he keep thinking I trust him if this turns out viable.

I still don't think it's the only option, but I do acknowledge it could work if that is the case.

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goddamnbatsperm June 14 2010, 04:50:00 UTC
Yes, exactly. We're running on the theory that Saki's and Satoshi's teams are the remaining wolves.

This works out if you notice they didn't vote in the last ousting. There were two abstainers, which are the same as the ones who voted for the logical sheep in the first ousting.

This means that your theory about the wolves piling on their own is plausible but not viable in this situation.

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maman_a_tort June 14 2010, 04:59:06 UTC
You're suggesting they abstained so that later they could say they didn't vote for a sheep this round?

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goddamnbatsperm June 14 2010, 05:05:16 UTC
I'm not actually suggesting their motivation. What I am suggesting is the fact that they ended up not being in a position where they had to vote for their own, self-defeating, or for my team, which popular opinion would suggest is not a wolf team and therefore it would be a suspicious choicce. The question of whether they would or would not have chosen to dogpile on a wolf is now moot.

This could open up the counter-argument that Anri's team was in fact a wolf, but the whole theory rests on Saki's team being a wolf, and they are mutually exclusive.

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maman_a_tort June 15 2010, 00:11:38 UTC
Well then.

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goddamnbatsperm June 15 2010, 00:46:17 UTC
[kicks something over]

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maman_a_tort June 15 2010, 02:37:46 UTC
The third wolf team is Kagura's, and they're panicking.

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goddamnbatsperm June 15 2010, 02:39:50 UTC
Why do you say that?

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maman_a_tort June 15 2010, 02:46:09 UTC
Look at what they're saying. They're still insisting that Jubilee's team were wolves even though they have nothing to back it up, and it's almost as if they're misunderstanding the logic on purpose. They don't want Kida's team to go out.

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goddamnbatsperm June 15 2010, 14:29:35 UTC
Next?

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rhymeswithgrim June 15 2010, 03:42:54 UTC
Who are you considering voting on in the suspicion poll?

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derepathy June 15 2010, 03:54:28 UTC
Ah... Makoto-san is better at this than I am and we didn't discuss it before she left, but... Labrador-san? It's still early and people are still discussing it, so it's not a set decision yet...

And I still need to finish reading through the posts Kida unlocked.

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rhymeswithgrim June 15 2010, 04:12:02 UTC
I have a train of though, but I'll wait until I'm more convinced of its solidity before I blurt my thoughts out again.

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derepathy June 15 2010, 04:14:04 UTC
Mm, being extra-careful is good.

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