(no subject)
Yesterday Simon Cowell appeared on CNN to promote last night's premiere of American Inventor. While talking about American Idol he said something very interesting. He said of the 500,000 people who auditioned "we have launched one and a half careers." He did not say, and stupidly was not asked, who the 1.5 careers belong to. I would guess Kelly Clarkson would be the one. But who would be the half? Clay Aiken? Carrie Underwood? What happened to Fantasia? Ruben? And more importantly, does anybody care?
I can think of nothing I have heard or read that better makes the point that American Idol is not about music. It's about making money by generating television ratings. It's about making entertaining TV that will grab people and keep them watching. It is tremendously successful at achieving that goal.
Over twenty million Americans watch each episode. Even the early auditions. How many of those viewers will buy a CD or a concert ticket? We are few and far between. We rant about the ridiculous and silly auditions, the squabbling of the judges, and the unfair and sometimes unfathomable vote results, but we watch it because it is entertaining. Sometimes we just take the whole thing way to seriously. But we wouldn't invest all the hours we do if it wasn't important to us.
Since it is important to us let's talk about Wednesday night's results show.
Were you shocked? I don't think many people were surprised to see Melissa McGhee go home. She belonged in the bottom three and if she didn't go home this week it would probably have been next week. But what about Ace Young and Lisa Tucker. Why in the world were they in the bottom three? I don't think either of them have a chance at winning the title, but bottom three of the Top 12? Does that make any sense at all? Why weren't Kevin Covais and Kellie Pickler standing on that stage?
As I have written many times before this show is not about the most talented singer. It's about which contestants will generate a large and loyal fan base.
I also believe that there is not one particular type of fan base for each of the 12 contestants. Rather there are groupings. Multiple contestants sharing the same core fan base group. I see two major groups in this years Top 12 (now 11).
One of this year's groups includes Chris Daughtry, Taylor Hicks, Ace Young, Bucky Covington, and Elliott Yamin. If that is correct, then who will this group give the majority of their votes to? Probably Chris, maybe Taylor, but certainly not Ace or Bucky or Elliott. I wasn't surprised to see Ace in the bottom three. Again, it is not a matter of whether or not he was in the bottom three talent wise when compared to all 12 contestants. It was his voting block comparing him to the other four contestants they would consider voting for. It's all about the votes within the group of similar contestants. And within his voting block their are four people that the majority felt were more talented and or more appealing. In the case of Bucky versus Ace I think it was Bucky's personality that gave him the nod over Ace. Look for Ace to be in the bottom 3 again, and to go home in the next couple of weeks.
Another group includes the young female contestants. Paris Bennett, Lisa Tucker, the departed Melissa McGhee, and Kellie Pickler. I think this is the group that will be championed by the teenies. The teenies are those young teen and pre-teen females who many people, including myself, feel control the outcome of the show. At this point in the competition the teenies had four possible choices and their vote got split as well. I would bet the vast majority of their vote, deserving or not, went to Kellie. They love her underdog story, her look, her personality and they will vote for her in droves until the end. Obviously Paris got the second most votes in this group of 4. So I was not surprised to see Lisa in the bottom three as well. Although I think she deserved it even less than Ace.
That leaves three contestants; Mandisa, Katharine McPhee, and Kevin Covais.
I think because her of more mature and sophisticated look and style Katharine does not appeal to the teenies and does not fit in with the young girls group. Actually I would place her in a group with Mandisa. I think the voters who respond to Mandisa and Katharine are more focused on talent than style. If I'm right you can look for Katharine to go home a week or two before Mandisa.
And that leaves Kevin, and I wish he would leave. Kevin started out appearing to be sweet and innocent and genuinely surprised at his success. Over the last few weeks he has changed. His attempts to manipulate the vote have been revealed. He has begun to believe the hype about his sex appeal, and stop me from slitting my wrists, his talent! He is developing and showing an attitude that he can not back up with ability.
So why was he not in the bottom three. Why was Scott Savol around so long last year? Once again the teenies think he is cute. And they don't just vote for one contestant, they plan out their votes, discuss the plan with friends, and then vote accordingly. And no it is not a conspiracy...it is a consensus. Don't believe that? Read Confessions Of A Teenie Voter. It's a fascinating and informative interview.
Kevin is benefiting from those votes and he will continue to until the fickle taste of the teenies change or they perceive a threat to one of the young girl group that they really support. Then they will drop him so fast he will never see it coming. Believing his own press, he won't understand it either.
If all of this is correct then you can look for Ace, Bucky, Elliot, Lisa, Paris, and Katharine to be eliminated by their respective voting groups.
Somewhere along the way, most likely after the above are gone, Mandisa and Kevin will be eliminated.
That leaves Kellie Pickler, Taylor Hicks and Chris Daughtry as the top three. And that's not good news for Taylor and Chris. They will split their potential vote. The teenies aren't going to vote for them. They are too old, too edgy and too masculine to appeal to young teen girls.
Kellie Pickler is in a great position to win it all.
And when it is all over we will be left with "one and a half careers." But it will all have been entertaining.