The following predictions are taken from a pre-HBP "meme" that was floating around LJ a couple months ago. I have color-coded my answers according to estimated likelihood of successful prediction (and also according to my level of interest, among the lower-probability ones).
Two years ago, I did a series of pre-OotP predictions that I thought seemed pretty likely, and got only slightly over half of them right. After all, JKR can throw in all kinds of twists which we have no way of anticipating, and that fact can play havoc with the best-laid predictions of mice and men (so to speak). So this time around, I'm being a little more cautious with my expectations concerning my own forecasting accuracy.
The following are my color codes (we'll see afterwards if I was too optimistic or too pessimistic):
Blue: Seems like a slam dunk, ought to get at least three-fourths right.
Green: Seems like a natural outcome, hope to get at least half right.
Yellow: This is how I see it happening, but realistically, a lot of stuff could happen differently, and a one-fourth success rate on these seems reasonable.
Red: These are long-shots, but I'm fond of them, and if I get one or two of them right, I'll try not to be too obnoxious about it. :-) (In any cases, the ones in red should be the most interesting to read-- although, in a couple of cases, very sad.)
Gray: These ones don't really interest me that much, and in most cases they're not high-probability guesses, but I answered them to complete the questionnaire anyway.
And so, without further ado:
1. Summer
What will cause Harry to leave the Dursleys’ early?
Bill and Fleur’s wedding.
Where will he go for the rest of the summer?
The Burrow.
What will become of 12GP and Sirius’s estate?
Narcissa Malfoy will inherit 12GP and Kreacher. Harry will inherit Sirius’ money and other possessions (much to his own embarrassment, although Ron insists, “It’s okay, Harry, don’t worry about it”).
With whom will Harry spend time this summer?
Mainly the Weasleys and Hermione; he’ll also see the other major Order members from time to time (Lupin, Tonks, Moody, maybe Kingsley).
What will he do this summer, or what will happen to him?
No major adventures comparable to the QWC and the Trial.
How will he celebrate his birthday?
At the Burrow-his first real birthday party ever.
2. OWL results and sixth year courses
How did Harry and each of his friends in his year fare?
Ten OWL’s for Hermione, probably with straight Outstandings; seven for Harry (O in Defense but only A in Potions, with passing grades also in Charms, Transfiguration, Creatures, Herbology, and Astronomy but not Divination or History); maybe eight for Ron (probably about the same as Harry but except passing Divination).
What courses will they each be taking now?
Harry: Defense, Transfiguration, Charms, Potions, Creatures.
Ron: Defense, Transfiguration, Charms, Creatures, History.
Hermione: Defense, Transfiguration, Charms, Potions, Creatures, Arithmancy, History.
Did Harry score a high enough Potions OWL? Did Ron?
Not by Snape’s standards (not Harry, at least): A for Harry, E for Ron.
Will McGonagall have to intervene for Harry?
Yes.
Will either Harry or Ron stick with Divination?
No.
What will happen with Firenze and Prof. Trelawney?
Firenze will teach Defense.
Who will be the new DADA teacher?
Firenze.
Will there be any other changes to the staff?
No-not at the beginning of the year, at least.
What new subject matter might they cover?
No idea.
3. Voldemort and the Death Eaters
What will LV’s next move be?
The mysterious disappearances that Harry thought he would hear about last year finally start.
How will people react now that the truth about LV’s return is known?
Mostly in fear.
What role will Wormtail play? Will his life debt to Harry come into play in this book?
Wormtail dies in this book-not nobly, but fulfilling his debt to Harry.
What role will Bellatrix play?
Big-time DE, rival to Lucius for the spot at Voldemort’s right hand.
What will become of Lucius and the other imprisoned DE’s?
They’ll be freed by July. Mr. Nott will, however, have a falling-out with Lucius, ending in Mr. Nott’s exile or death.
Where does the scene with the Dark Mark (shown on the US ed. cover) take place, and why is the Mark being displayed?
Draco fires off the mark in celebration after Dumbledore’s death, at the end of the book.
Will we learn more about what happened Oct. 31, 1981?
Yes.
Will we learn more about the connection between Harry and LV?
Yes.
4. Harry
How will Harry deal with his emotions about Sirius’s death and the prophecy?
It’ll be a struggle, but he’ll increasingly learn to channel them into actions. (The phrase “deal with his emotions” will not, however, enter Harry’s vocabulary.)
Will Harry tell anyone about the prophecy yet, and if so, who? Whom will he tell first?
Ginny will be first (somewhat to Harry’s surprise, as he’ll have planned to tell Ron and Hermione first but won’t have figured out how to say it). That will be in the summer, with H/G not yet interested in each other that way (not very much, at least).
Will Harry continue to have dreams/visions of LV, and if so, how will he deal with them?
Yes; he’ll start to take Occlumency seriously this time.
Will he continue Occlumency lessons?
Yes, with Dumbledore.
Will Harry learn anything more about his parents or his past in this book? Will he find out how his parents got together?
He’ll find out some, but not all.
5. Romance
Will Harry notice another girl in a more-than-friendly way?
Yes, Ginny.
Will another girl show interest in him?
Yes (Ginny), though not immediately.
Will he get another kiss in this book?
Yes.
Will Ginny date Dean Thomas? Will she date someone else?
Yes (Dean), although it will be fairly casual (not much deeper than with Michael), and will end partway through the year.
Will Ron make a move on Hermione, and if so, how will she react (or vice versa)?
Ron will initiate (whether premeditatedly or spontaneously-- could be either), and Hermione will react with an odd combination of happiness, relief, and exasperation.
Will Ron and Hermione become a couple?
Yes.
Will Ron and Hermione kiss, and if so, will Harry see it?
Yes; not the first time.
How will Harry react to whatever happens between Ron and Hermione?
“About time.”
Will there be another formal event?
Yes.
Will anything further develop between Bill and Fleur? What about Hagrid and Mme Maxime?
Bill and Fleur will marry. Hagrid is out of the picture for Maxime.
What do Hermione and Krum write about? Has she visited him, or will she?
Just friendly stuff, although fueled somewhat by longing on Viktor’s part. No, she won’t visit.
6. Quidditch
Who will be the new Captain?
Ginny.
Who will be the new Beaters?
New characters, both fifth-year girls.
Will Harry return as Seeker?
Yes.
Will Ron return as Keeper?
Yes, and he’ll do very well.
Will Ginny be a new Chaser?
Yes.
Who else will be on the team?
Another new Chaser, probably a girl.
How much of a role will it have in the story?
Draco will finally grab the Snitch against Harry… and Harry will realize that it doesn’t bother him that much. He’s got bigger things to worry about, and will have come to view Draco more with contempt than as a serious threat to his self-image.
7. Dumbledore
What is going on in the scenes depicted on the different covers we’ve seen so far?
Four scenes are pictured: (1) forest (US deluxe edition slipcase), (2) basin (both US front cover, and UK back cover with boat); (3) fire (UK front cover); and (4) Dark Mark (US back cover). The Forest scene will be from the middle of the book, with Harry and Dumbledore going to meet some significant character (perhaps the HBP). The latter three will be from the “final adventure,” and will occur in the order given above: Harry and Dumbledore go to some secret location underground, where a boat takes them to a subterranean island with the basin-not a Pensieve, but some kind of a portal that will combine the properties of a Portkey and a Pensieve, which allows them to see what’s happening (real-time) in various places and which, if they get in it, will Port them to the place currently shown. In that place, they will meet Voldemort, who will attack them with a fire-spell. Dumbledore will die allowing Harry to escape. When the news reaches Hogwarts, Draco will fire off the Mark in celebration.
The “observer” role suggested for Ron, Hermione, and Ginny on the Scholastic promotional stand, where they appear to be looking up at Harry and Dumbledore over the basin, in addition to being borrowed from the final Dark Mark scene, will also symbolically depict the supporting roles that those three will have for Harry in this book. Ginny’s role, in particular, will increase to an importance comparable to that of Ron and Hermione but will be separate from theirs-she won’t be like a “fourth member of the Trio,” but will be a new and independent influence in Harry's life.
How does Dumbledore mend his relationship with Harry?
The mending was done at the end of OotP.
Will he take over giving Harry Occlumency lessons?
Yes.
Will he die in this book?
Yes.
8. The Half-Blood Prince
Who is he and what is his significance?
New character. Will be important, but not the central focus of the plot (as the Goblet and the Order weren’t in their respective books)-- probably a source of key information. Will be a focus of some mystery, kind of like Nicolas Flamel in PS/SS (except that we'll actually meet the HBP).
9. Sirius, the veil, and death
Will Harry see Sirius in some form in this book?
Yes (Pensieve or similar).
Will he attempt to journey behind the veil?
No.
Will he repair and use the mirror?
Yes, but not with Sirius.
Will anyone else die in this book?
Yes. We'll lose Hedwig (sniff), as the DE's AK her on a delivery. Harry will inherit Fawkes after Dumbledore's death.
Will we find out anything more about the Hogwarts ghosts or ghosts in general?
No.
10. Other characters
What will happen with Percy?
He will somewhat stiffly admit that he was wrong; it will be a struggle for the family (except Molly, but especially Fred and George) to welcome him back. Alternative possibility: Fudge will be killed or otherwise put out of commission; with the Wizengamot unable to meet, the top post would have gone to the Senior Undersecretary, but she’s out of commission too, so the Junior Undersecretary takes over-which is the worst thing that could possibly have happened to him.
What role will Grawp have in the story?
He will be helpful at some key point. Beats me how.
Will we find out more about Neville's past? What?
Nothing major.
Will we find out more about Snape's past? What?
This may be where we find out more about the Tree/Tunnel incident.
Will we find out if there is a particular reason that Snape hates Neville so much?
No.
Will we find out more about Hagrid's past? What?
Nothing significant.
Will the Trio become a Sextet?
No, but the Trio will become less of a distinct group; Ginny in particular will have a significance almost paralleling Ron’s and Hermione’s (but independent of them-not really a “fourth member of the Trio”).
What role will Luna play?
Sort of an advisor for Harry, giving a perspective complementing Hermione’s (with Ginny the balancing point between them). Her presence may open Hermione's mind a bit, as well.
What will Rita Skeeter do next?
Work for Mr. Lovegood.
What will happen to Fudge and the MoM?
Fudge will be replaced, and the Ministry will face more and more "mayhem."
What will happen to Draco, and what is “Draco’s Detour” about?
Draco will continue to align himself with his father’s ways. The “Detour” will be on the way back to Hogwarts, as Harry secretly follows Draco to a DE rendezvous of some sort (or, at least, on some sort of assignment for the DE's).
Who or what is Felix Felicis?
A person, either the "Old Lion" or the HBP or both.
Who is the lion-like man described in the excerpt that was released earlier?
The HBP.
Will we see more of Theodore Nott and/or Blaise Zabini? Will there be a “good” Slytherin among Harry’s cohort?
Theodore will join Harry’s side. He’ll be more of a “reformed” Slytherin than a “good” one; he was never as “bad” as Draco in the first place, of course, but he had still believed in the DE philosophy until now. Blaise will follow.
What will become of Professor Umbridge?
Off into a Lockhart-like oblivion.
Will we learn more about Ginny’s possession in CoS?
A little.
Does Ginny owe Harry a life debt? If so, what will become of it?
Probably so, but I don’t know how it will play into the story.
Will Ron say Voldemort’s name? Will Harry’s other friends say it?
Ginny and Luna will; I’m not sure about Ron and Neville.
Does Grindelwald have any significance in the story?
Not much.
11. Other subplots and loose ends
What will happen with SPEW and the House Elves?
Hermione will start to shift away from junior-political-activist mode (at which she wasn’t very good anyway), finding instead a more successful way of helping them, such as education.
What will happen with the Centaurs? Will any of them take sides in the war like Firenze?
“The Centaurs are for the Centaurs.” Most or all will remain neutral regarding Voldemort, but will have a mostly malevolent influence.
What role will the Goblins and other magical creatures play?
The majority of the Goblins and Giants will take Voldemort’s side. A few House-Elves will start to take a positive stand along with Dobby, though.
Will Hermione learn to apparate after her birthday? Will Ron?
Yes (both).
Will Harry go into the Forbidden Forest this year, and if so, will he see Aragog or the Ford Anglia?
Yes; at least one (I’ll say Aragog).
What is Spinner’s End?
The site of Bill and Fleur’s wedding, in a forest somewhere. (Alternative possibility: The home of either Lupin, the HBP, the Old Lion, or Felix Felicis.)
How will the matter of inter-house relations be addressed?
Harry and friends will struggle to accept Theodore and Blaise as reformed (Hermione will be the quickest to accept them, Ron the slowest). Slytherin House as a whole will not, however, be vindicated in general.
Will we find out more about Hogwarts's past (the Founders)? What? Will we learn more about the fall-out between GG and SS?
Yes, though it won’t be the major plot thread.
Will we learn the identity of the eavesdropper who heard the beginning of the prophecy?
No.
Will we see the Chamber of Secrets again?
No.
What other old characters, creatures, spells, concepts, etc will we see again?
Nothing that I can think of.
...This will be my last post before the book comes out. I have it pre-ordered at the local B&N, and expect to finish sometime around 8 or 9 PDT on Saturday morning, and then to sleep as much of the day as I can.
By the way,
zsenya, if you're reading this: Yes, I still have my "Head Boy" shirt and Gryffindor scarf from SQUKNY, and plan to wear them to the book release. (Thanks again!) :-)
Oh, and for whatever little it's worth: My plan is to start reading with Mozart's Sinfonia Concertante for Violin and Viola on the CD player. Further music selections will depend on the mood of the book. If I go on to Mozart's Piano Concerto #22, that'll mean I'm still thinking, "Yeah, this is so cool!" If, on the other hand, I end at 8 AM with Mahler's Symphony #6, that'll mean "This was as depressing as OotP." But at this point I'm more optimistic than that....
Happy reading, everyone!