UK death rates
Here's a quick chart of the death rate by age group in the UK, with data from here.
This is actual figures, rather than projections, and they date from 2007 (or earlier) and things have got slightly better since then. Everyone always plots this on a logarithmic scale (see link above for an example), which does make it possible to see the substantial relative differences over most of the age course, and to read off data accurately at any age group. But it massively disguises the actual magnitude of the change in relative risk, unless you are very, very good at interpreting logarithmic charts, which I'm not. This straight-up plot makes it pretty clear: these days, death mostly (but not entirely) happens to people over 55, and gets more likely the older you get after that.
I got these figures to work out chances of needing to draw on life insurance for the benefit of minor children.
Based on these figures, I calculated that a child born to a 35-year-old father has a 1.5% chance of their father dying in the first 10 years of their life (father aged 35-44, (1-1/663)^10), and a 3.5% chance of losing them in the second 10 years of their life (father aged 45-55). If you add those (which isn't right, but close) that makes a neat round 5%, or 1 in 20. The chances of losing their mother are less: 0.9% in the first 10 years, and 2.4% in the second 10 years, making 3.3%, or about 1 in 30.
[NB You can't just add the percentages like that - you need to use the final percentage from the first 10 years as the starting one for the next 10 years - but this margin of my time isn't enough to do it properly. It's close to that, though, and this method gives you an overestimate. Adding the percentage of either parent dying - 5% + 3.3% = 8.3% or about 1/12 - is wrong in a similar way and gives an overestimate of the chances of losing any parent. If I have time later I'll do this properly, but don't hold your breath - do please post in the comments if you do it.]
Those figures seem in the right ballpark, if a little high: most people I know had younger parents than that (hence less likely to die), but I do know a handful people who lost a parent while they were a child, out of, say, around one or two hundred people I know well enough that I might know that about them.
This entry crossposted to http://doug.dreamwidth.org/312516.html, where there are
comment(s) not shown here.
This is actual figures, rather than projections, and they date from 2007 (or earlier) and things have got slightly better since then. Everyone always plots this on a logarithmic scale (see link above for an example), which does make it possible to see the substantial relative differences over most of the age course, and to read off data accurately at any age group. But it massively disguises the actual magnitude of the change in relative risk, unless you are very, very good at interpreting logarithmic charts, which I'm not. This straight-up plot makes it pretty clear: these days, death mostly (but not entirely) happens to people over 55, and gets more likely the older you get after that.
I got these figures to work out chances of needing to draw on life insurance for the benefit of minor children.
Based on these figures, I calculated that a child born to a 35-year-old father has a 1.5% chance of their father dying in the first 10 years of their life (father aged 35-44, (1-1/663)^10), and a 3.5% chance of losing them in the second 10 years of their life (father aged 45-55). If you add those (which isn't right, but close) that makes a neat round 5%, or 1 in 20. The chances of losing their mother are less: 0.9% in the first 10 years, and 2.4% in the second 10 years, making 3.3%, or about 1 in 30.
[NB You can't just add the percentages like that - you need to use the final percentage from the first 10 years as the starting one for the next 10 years - but this margin of my time isn't enough to do it properly. It's close to that, though, and this method gives you an overestimate. Adding the percentage of either parent dying - 5% + 3.3% = 8.3% or about 1/12 - is wrong in a similar way and gives an overestimate of the chances of losing any parent. If I have time later I'll do this properly, but don't hold your breath - do please post in the comments if you do it.]
Those figures seem in the right ballpark, if a little high: most people I know had younger parents than that (hence less likely to die), but I do know a handful people who lost a parent while they were a child, out of, say, around one or two hundred people I know well enough that I might know that about them.
This entry crossposted to http://doug.dreamwidth.org/312516.html, where there are
comment(s) not shown here.