What Next?

[drplokta]

I want your predictions for where we'll be in ten years' time, June 2026, by which time there should have been at least two general elections (unless things have gone really badly wrong). If you think the UK will have split up, then references to the UK should be taken to mean the successor state with the highest population.
Poll

Comments

[andrewducker]

Right now I largely feel that it all depends on too many tiny factors that could go in a lot of directions, depending on individuals who I can't predict.

Boris could get in and invoke article 50 on day one. Or he could do something incredibly statesmanlike, and turn the whole situation around in a way I'm not expecting.

But right now everything depends on that. And I have absolutely no idea what he's going to do.

[history_monk]

I don't have an answer to any of these questions. We have a chaotic situation here, which will be determined by lots of unpredictable individual decisions.

[coth]

I can't answer any of these. I can't see any good outcomes, but I have no clue what we will actually get.

In my mind the logic of a representative democracy means that in light of the many demonstrable harms arising to this nation, MPs voting to leave the EU would be traitors to their oaths, their duty and their country. But by that same logic the referendum was a fraud on the electorate and we got it anyway.

I can't see our nation coming out of this with any remainng faith in our political institutions. This whole business is a huge failure of our political system. I can't suggest any way of fixing it that might be possible.

[fanf]

Most of this is too much up in the air to give good answers, but I think it is worth unpacking the worst prime minister question:

Chamberlain: thought he was doing the right thing, couldn't have averted war, shouldn't be blamed.

Eden: no worse than Blair for idiot wars of aggression. Only notable for making it obvious that Britain was no longer a first rank power.

Thatcher: knew what she was doing and achieved what she intended, mostly. We might not like what she did but she was undeniably competent.

Cameron: seems not to believe in anything nor have any strategic goals nor any understanding of the political atmosphere of the country. (Farage is about the only politician with a good handle on that last one.)

[ffutures]

I have no faith in any of my answers, but it was a fun quiz. Still hoping that Alien Space Bats reverse the result or something.