Although, in fairness, rural pubs, especially the smaller ones, *are* suffering. Some of them quite badly. It's not all as one way or the other as we might like to think.
Those of you coming over from Ireland, can any of you bring a copy of the Financial Times or something similar? My boss is insisting that the Irish guy who lives and works over here knows more about the financial impact the ban has had on irish pubs than you guys would.
I'll try and find some of the recent articles, but the main points are:
Rural pubs are hit the worst - business is down a lot. City Centre pubs are hit a bit - business is down.
Alcohol sales were already changing from on-trade to off-trade (people buying more in off licences) even before the ban due to high alcohol prices, but the ban has not encouraged people back to the pubs in high numbers.
Rurual pubs of course were also losing business due to rural population decline anyway mind you.
Essentially from what I've seen there is a case to be made that there will be a short term loss of business. My answer to this is that there was also a loss of earnings for builders when they stopped using asbestos. People eventually adapt. It's not been the calamity that the Vintners Federation were warning, but it's also not seen a huge increase in sales either.
But it's a public health issue. End of story.
"If it was all about profits, then GM would be selling crack."
There are few strong statistical indicators so far of the effects on business. But the Irish Revenue Commission says that its take from cigarette taxes dropped by 16% during the first half of this year. This included a 45% decline in January, when most people traditionally try to give up smoking, but also a 25% year-on-year fall in March when the ban came in. New York, which banned smoking in public places two years ago, saw an 11% decrease in cigarette sales in the first year.
That chimes with Gallaher's warning in June that Irish cigarette sales had fallen by just over 9% in the first five months of the year. However, that was nowhere near as severe as the 31% fall in France and 20% in Germany in May following massive duty increases.
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Where, oh where, have we heard that crock before, eh? It sure as hell didn't kill the business over here, I doubt it will in Scotland :-)
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Can anyone help out?
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Rural pubs are hit the worst - business is down a lot.
City Centre pubs are hit a bit - business is down.
Alcohol sales were already changing from on-trade to off-trade (people buying more in off licences) even before the ban due to high alcohol prices, but the ban has not encouraged people back to the pubs in high numbers.
Rurual pubs of course were also losing business due to rural population decline anyway mind you.
Essentially from what I've seen there is a case to be made that there will be a short term loss of business. My answer to this is that there was also a loss of earnings for builders when they stopped using asbestos. People eventually adapt. It's not been the calamity that the Vintners Federation were warning, but it's also not seen a huge increase in sales either.
But it's a public health issue. End of story.
"If it was all about profits, then GM would be selling crack."
Reply
There are few strong statistical indicators so far of the effects on business. But the Irish Revenue Commission says that its take from cigarette taxes dropped by 16% during the first half of this year. This included a 45% decline in January, when most people traditionally try to give up smoking, but also a 25% year-on-year fall in March when the ban came in. New York, which banned smoking in public places two years ago, saw an 11% decrease in cigarette sales in the first year.
That chimes with Gallaher's warning in June that Irish cigarette sales had fallen by just over 9% in the first five months of the year. However, that was nowhere near as severe as the 31% fall in France and 20% in Germany in May following massive duty increases.
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