polls narrow the gap?
An interesting Georgia poll came out today, one that somewhat confirms another, very biased poll that was out yesterday. It also raises some questions on the national level.
Yesterday's poll came from the Jim Martin (D) senate campaign and put incumbent Saxby Chambliss (R) up by just three points, 37-34 with 26% undecided. Most scoffed at the idea ( Read more... )
Yesterday's poll came from the Jim Martin (D) senate campaign and put incumbent Saxby Chambliss (R) up by just three points, 37-34 with 26% undecided. Most scoffed at the idea ( Read more... )
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Real Clear Politics is great for obsessing over tracking the polls. The third table on this page is especially telling. Notice how every state that is changing is changing in an Obamaward direction. Trends are all away from McCain. Some like Florida are ridiculously steep.
I repeat, John McCain is going down like panties on prom night.
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Even McConnell took a big hit.
But I need to see new polls in places like Louisiana, where a Dem is the (Senate) incumbent, to see if the trend is centered on one party or on incumbents in general.
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Take a look at the tracking graph for men, and then the one for women, on the Georgia poll you already linked (go to the crosstab page, then click the "1/T" icon, then choose "men" from the pull-down menu near the top left), and then look at the same thing in Florida and Ohio at the above link. (Really, look at lots, but those two states in particular caught my eye.)
What I find really interesting is that, to my eye, after the Palin pick and the RNC, McCain surged with men -- she didn't seem to impress women that much -- and now, in these most recent polls in these most critical states, SOMETHING has happened to make men change course.
No way to really tell which one thing it is, if it actually is just one thing -- but my gut tells me it's the Katie Couric interview.
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It's really about information. Women's reaction to Palin was more visceral one way or the other and less likely to change. Men were more willing to give her a chance (yes, partly because she's attractive), but now that she's been around long enough to screw up a few interviews (the only interviews she's given) the shine is starting to dull, and now men are starting to question McCain's judgment in choosing her.
That's if it's all about Palin. I think she plays a huge role in this campaign just because of what she represents. Now that the economy has tanked, people are going to look at the candidates' actions in response; so far, McCain looks like he panicked, perhaps like he did in picking Palin.
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ETA: Here's an earlier thread on the same poll, started by a Democrat.
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It's a complaint that does come up every now and then; I don't think there's much to it. While I'm sure there are some people who leave the house for church first thing in the morning and don't come back until late at night, I think church for most people is a portion of their day, which also includes going out to breakfast or lunch, watching football on TV at home, and having dinner with their families.
If I get time, I'll do some day-by-day breakdowns, though it gets complicated because then we're looking at raw, as opposed to weighted, data.
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