Why "only 1-2% really have food intolerances" drives me nuts.

[fjm]

I saw this today in a cook book (Amazing Grains, bought because we need a wider range of options) and once more it made my teeth grind, not because it's wrong, but because the writer doesn't understand the implications

Comments

[gfish]

Phrasing it as a percentage is confusing and counterintuitive anyway. 1% doesn't equal one of your hundred friends -- at the given rate of 1%, by the time you count 11 or 12 friends, the odds that at least one of them has a food intolerance is already 50%. I think the presentation of a stat like this without context can be really misleading, in addition to overly clinical definitions.

[gfish]

...okay, no, I really messed up that math. It takes an even 70 friends to hit a 50% chance. But by the time you get to 100, there is still a good 20% chance 2 will have allergies, and a totally noticeable 4% chance that 3 will.

Whew, that feels better.

[fjm]

Very helpful. But my approach while basic is still bloody obvious to anyone who stops to think.