Silver (orange) linings

[forthright]

Dear fellow lefties,

So you're upset that the Conservatives have won a (smallish) majority, and now have 165 seats instead of 143. Okay, I get that. Harper's a clod, and he clearly has authoritarian tendencies, and giving him the ability to pass his legislative agenda for the next four years isn't exactly super-duper. But I want to put things into perspective.

• 104 seats. 104. With increased representation throughout the country. Layton in Stornoway and the NDP with massive parliamentary resources that come with being Official Opposition. Seriously, guys.
• This result came about as much because of Liberal and Bloc collapse than anything else. Don't assume that the Conservatives won because you voted NDP, or because some riding went NDP. You can't just add up the Liberal and NDP votes for a riding as a 'left' bloc and then cry "oh, woe, vote splitting". Just because the Liberals may have been your second choice doesn't mean that the NDP would have been every Liberal voter's second choice. It is very clear that a large number of traditional LPC voters (perhaps as many as half) are willing to migrate to the Conservatives before the NDP. Most of the Conservative pickups were in the 905 belt (hardly friendly territory for the NDP)
• Remember that just seven years ago the Liberals were governing with a majority larger than what Harper will have now, and the NDP had 13 seats nationwide. This too shall pass.
• I won't arrogantly claim that separatism is dead in Quebec, but the Bloc is reduced to a rump of, right now, 3 seats. Three. I suspect that the sovereignty movement will now pass out of federal politics. This is a good thing inasmuch as it gets rid of some artificial electoral distortions relating to first-past-the-post, but also, it gets rid of a lot of annoying separatists from Parliament.
• But it also shows real unity in Quebec. The NDP won not only in separatist strongholds, but also in Notre-Dame-de-Grace-Lachine and Westmount-Ville-Marie, which have been Liberal anglophone strongholds since the Dawn of Time.
• We no longer have to see Michael Ignatieff's smug face. Well, okay, he hasn't resigned yet, but he lost his seat and his party was crushed - it's just a matter of time.
• Elizabeth May. Okay, you may not agree with her, but her presence in Parliament means that at long last, the media outlets will have to enforce their rule and give the Greens a place in leadership debates, which is long overdue.
• Do we really think that a minority NDP-Liberal coalition would have been able to put through an aggressive left-wing agenda? Clearly not. The NDP was never going to win the most seats outright. Any coalition was going to be fragile, if it even happened - there's every likelihood that Ignatieff would have cast his lot with the Tories instead. And in any case, the likelihood that LPC + NDP > 154 was very, very small, so then you have to contend with the Bloc. Whatever they would have managed, it clearly would have been fleeting.
• This puts to rest the 'NDP won't turn out' myth. Clearly they did, in large numbers, everywhere. The surge was real, and probably they hit it right at its maximum, to great effect.
• Yes, Harper's Old-Timey Canadiocracy is going to put through some ridiculous legislation now and then, but they are sitting on, what, 39% of the popular vote. They are going to be thinking ahead to the next election, because 165 is hardly a comfortable majority, and they are going to have to tack to the center at least some of the time or else risk getting drummed out of office.
• Let's reflect on what would have happened with dozens of brand-new Quebec MPs most of whom, a month ago, had absolutely no chance of winning, some of whom don't speak good French despite representing massively francophone ridings, and many of whom have absolutely no legislative experience at any level. Seriously, who takes a vacation in the middle of an electoral campaign? This gives the novices a chance to become seasoned without dumping them into roles in the government that they aren't prepared to handle, and gives the NDP a chance to build a real base of support. The NDP already gets saddled with a reputation for incompetent governance, unfairly - let's be glad not to have it compounded.
• Layton has been playing the long game for seven years now. Remember how we laughed when he came to Montreal? Who's laughing now? October 19, 2015 is not so long.