You have longer to live than you probably think you do.

[fraser_by_proxy]

So I went onto Statistics New Zealand the other day and downloaded the New Zealand Life Tables (2000-2002).

I wanted to make this graph:

Comments

[anarchangel23]

This is the same statistical quirk which puts the lie to that occasionally heard fallacy that a 40 year old in the middle ages (with an E⁰ of around 25 or so) was considered really old. Once you get past the first 5 years, life expectancy increases dramatically.

Discussion of life expectancy always leads me to wonder speculatively: At what point will advances in longevity begin to increase faster than we age? Sadly, I suspect we're a couple of decades ahead of the curve now.

On the disparity issue. Has there been a life expectancy survey which compared economic status with ethnicity? I've never seen a comparison between poor white people and poor brown people; it always seems to be averages, which immediately makes me think racism, but I wonder how much of it is economic disadvantage? One for another post, perhaps :)

[anarchangel23]

"On the disparity issue. Has there been a life expectancy survey which compared economic status with ethnicity?"

Yes. I saw a graph once comparing life expectancy by both ethnicity and income decile. Women stayed on top and non-Maori stayed on top regardless of income, although there was a marked increase in life expectancy with increasing income. Scarily, (to me, at least) the high-income Maori life expectancy, at its best, was about where the low-income Pakeha level was. So, some health issues related to poverty, but also ethnic background.

Steph
(Can't log in, at work)

[fraser_by_proxy]

Pretty much, and NZDep, which attempts to correlate other data with how deprived an area is, also suggests that pākeha and māori have differing life expectancy regardless of how deprived their geographic area is, so it's not that māori live in worse places either.

[xullrae]

I was talking to my (Māori) cleaner about this a couple of weeks ago - she reckons it's partly because Māori have only had 800 years to get used to the cold, damp weather, whereas most of the rest of us are originally from places like Scotland and therefore better suited to the climate :-)

Also, don't some/most Māori have genes which make them more vulnerable to things like heart disease? Not a problem until you start eating crap like McDonalds, of course.

[anonymous]

Could we have a graph where the y axis starts at 0?

[fraser_by_proxy]

Ding!

[arn]

So what you are essentially hinting at here is that there is essentially an age at which you become immortal? That's what I am taking away from this.

[fraser_by_proxy]

:)

Well, that's a fallacy to assume that from this graph, but it does lead into some interesting other data about life expectancy escape velocity, which is where the rate that the life expectancy for your cohort is advancing passes one year per year. i.e. in one year's time, if your life expectancy is more than one year higher than it was a year ago, then that means you're running towards a finish line that's receding faster than you're running.

Interesting, huh?

[zephfi]

watch out, you're starting to sound like an insurance actuary! :) actually, looking long-term, insurance medicine is a good later-in-career earner for you to bear in mind. particularly if this sort of stuff interests you.

i find all that stuff fascinating. i also like learning about disease prevalence etc and applying that information and test specificity/sensitivities to establish Positive Predictive Values etc. e.g. if a 34 yr old with no chest pain has a positive stress-ECG test, what is the likelihood that he actually has CAD? /geek out

[fraser_by_proxy]

My last exam had a question on specificity and sensitivity and false positives and NPVs and PPVs! :D

I like that stuff. It's nice and easy 'cos it's just maths.