the cancer that is (probably not) killing IB fandom
I've seen some people positing the argument that Eli Roth/ER finding the Kink Meme/"Blueberry-gate" has had a negative effect on fandom participation, so I ran some numbers. Because I demand SCIENCE.
I. Some numbers from 100_scalps
I collected information on total posts made every day to 100_scalps, fic posts made to 100_scalps, and comments made on posts to 100_scalps. Comment counts are not entirely accurate as many people link to their stories and icons off-community, so the posts in the community do not have high comment counts. Fic counts do not include fics posted to the kink meme that were not reposted to the community as their own posts.
If you would like to see the fic and posts information visually, here is a line graph. The red line represents posts, the blue line represents fic. Vertical green lines mark the beginning/end of ER's nonsense.
For the averages, I sampled from three different time periods: the 11 days before Eli Roth found the Kink Meme (Sept 9-Sept 19), the 7 days from Eli Roth finding the Kink Meme to when Blueberry-gate went down (Sept 20-Sept 26), and the 11 days following Blueberry-gate (Sept 27-Oct 7).
Fic numbers/average per day
11 Days Before: 1.18182
During: 2.42857
11 Days After: 1.90909
Slightly more fic is being posted now than was before Blueberry-gate, although not nearly as much as during Blueberry-gate. There are much more intentionally multi-part fics than were before Blueberry-gate.
Post numbers/average per day
11 Days Before: 3.09091
During: 4.28571
11 Days After: 3.09091
Shockingly: NO DIFFERENCE.
Comment numbers/average per day
11 Days Before: 43
During: 105
11 Days After: 36
Number of zero-comment days
11 Days Before: 3
During: 1
11 Days After: 1
High comment day
11 Days Before: 191
During: 236
11 Days After: 98
Comments have gone dowwwwn from prior to Blueberry-gate. However, the prior and during sections may be artificially inflated by the presence of NK Rathbone's prompt request posts. It's difficult to tell if we have fewer active participants in the fandom, or if we just haven't had any good discussion posts recently.
II. Some thoughts on other communities
Part of the reason I think the fandom feels less active is that there is less cross-posting. Early after Inglourious Basterds came out, there were four communities: 100_scalps, operation_kino, iheartcinemaah, and basterds. As the fandom has become more a functioning entity, some of these communities are becoming less active. This means fic is being posted to one or two communities now instead of to three or four, which means that friends lists feel less active, even with objectively more content being posted.
III. Another hypothesis
Because the communities became significantly more active when Eli Roth was attentionwhoring, when things have gone back to (relatively) normal, the drop-off feels like activity has gone down, even though the activity level is very similar to what it was prior to Roth finding the kink meme.
IV. Things I have not addressed
I have not looked at comparable movie fandoms, or those fandoms' "lifetimes". That means I don't know if these numbers are comparable to ones I might find in another fandom over the same period of time from the movie's release. To be honest, I'm not sure I want to go crunch the numbers for that, but it could be fun.
edit: Something I thought about when discussing the numbers with a friend, but didn't discuss here: There is the issue, if you look at the graph, that leading up to Roth butting his nose in, early on there were high peaks and low valleys in the numbers, while now it is evening off to somewhere more in the middle. We're not getting the peaks, but we're not really getting the valleys either.
Not sure what this is indicative of. I do want to look at fic-posting numbers, though. Not just what kind of fic people are posting (although, oh cake_breath, I do agree that I have an interest there, but I might want to hold off for a little bit to see if there are any new trends developing), but the schedules. Are the writers now posting fic more frequently, but there are fewer writers overall, whereas before there were lots of people posting, but only one story each? Or is this just how I'm subjectively reading the situation?
I. Some numbers from 100_scalps
I collected information on total posts made every day to 100_scalps, fic posts made to 100_scalps, and comments made on posts to 100_scalps. Comment counts are not entirely accurate as many people link to their stories and icons off-community, so the posts in the community do not have high comment counts. Fic counts do not include fics posted to the kink meme that were not reposted to the community as their own posts.
If you would like to see the fic and posts information visually, here is a line graph. The red line represents posts, the blue line represents fic. Vertical green lines mark the beginning/end of ER's nonsense.
For the averages, I sampled from three different time periods: the 11 days before Eli Roth found the Kink Meme (Sept 9-Sept 19), the 7 days from Eli Roth finding the Kink Meme to when Blueberry-gate went down (Sept 20-Sept 26), and the 11 days following Blueberry-gate (Sept 27-Oct 7).
Fic numbers/average per day
11 Days Before: 1.18182
During: 2.42857
11 Days After: 1.90909
Slightly more fic is being posted now than was before Blueberry-gate, although not nearly as much as during Blueberry-gate. There are much more intentionally multi-part fics than were before Blueberry-gate.
Post numbers/average per day
11 Days Before: 3.09091
During: 4.28571
11 Days After: 3.09091
Shockingly: NO DIFFERENCE.
Comment numbers/average per day
11 Days Before: 43
During: 105
11 Days After: 36
Number of zero-comment days
11 Days Before: 3
During: 1
11 Days After: 1
High comment day
11 Days Before: 191
During: 236
11 Days After: 98
Comments have gone dowwwwn from prior to Blueberry-gate. However, the prior and during sections may be artificially inflated by the presence of NK Rathbone's prompt request posts. It's difficult to tell if we have fewer active participants in the fandom, or if we just haven't had any good discussion posts recently.
II. Some thoughts on other communities
Part of the reason I think the fandom feels less active is that there is less cross-posting. Early after Inglourious Basterds came out, there were four communities: 100_scalps, operation_kino, iheartcinemaah, and basterds. As the fandom has become more a functioning entity, some of these communities are becoming less active. This means fic is being posted to one or two communities now instead of to three or four, which means that friends lists feel less active, even with objectively more content being posted.
III. Another hypothesis
Because the communities became significantly more active when Eli Roth was attentionwhoring, when things have gone back to (relatively) normal, the drop-off feels like activity has gone down, even though the activity level is very similar to what it was prior to Roth finding the kink meme.
IV. Things I have not addressed
I have not looked at comparable movie fandoms, or those fandoms' "lifetimes". That means I don't know if these numbers are comparable to ones I might find in another fandom over the same period of time from the movie's release. To be honest, I'm not sure I want to go crunch the numbers for that, but it could be fun.
edit: Something I thought about when discussing the numbers with a friend, but didn't discuss here: There is the issue, if you look at the graph, that leading up to Roth butting his nose in, early on there were high peaks and low valleys in the numbers, while now it is evening off to somewhere more in the middle. We're not getting the peaks, but we're not really getting the valleys either.
Not sure what this is indicative of. I do want to look at fic-posting numbers, though. Not just what kind of fic people are posting (although, oh cake_breath, I do agree that I have an interest there, but I might want to hold off for a little bit to see if there are any new trends developing), but the schedules. Are the writers now posting fic more frequently, but there are fewer writers overall, whereas before there were lots of people posting, but only one story each? Or is this just how I'm subjectively reading the situation?