A rare treat to see you post, Mr. Thorburn! I was just thinking about you the other day. I hope that Mrs. Thorburn and the little Thorsparks are thriving.
My gut feeling is that a sort of median prediction, erring on the pessimistic side of a prediction that I would not like to see come to pass, would have the Conservatives not reaching 326 but coming very close. They can probably get by adequately with a total in the low 320s when you consider that to defeat them would take all the "opposition" parties lining up together which seems unlikely, not least considering factors like Sinn Fein MPs not voting as a result of not swearing loyalty to the Queen. (On the other hand, getting to the low 320s puts them in greater danger should their own MPs decide to rebel, but I think that party discipline may well not be too hard to achieve if close-to-100% compliance is required to get contentious matters through.)
Perhaps the top-of-the-poll Lib Dems might spring a surprise yet! We can only hope...
Presumably Cliff Thorburn, moustachioed Canadian snooker world champion, rather than Paul Thorburn, red-headed Welsh ruby long-distance kicker, since I don't recall the latter ever being nicknamed Grinder?
The LibDem surge on the face of it renders my "there won't be a hung Parliament" comments not only unfortunately timed but also hopelessly wrong, but I remain of the view that an outright Tory win, albeit by a narrow margin, is the most likely outcome.
The historical evidence suggests that you are correct in supposing party discipline may be easier to maintain if the margins are tight provided - and this is important - it's a new party taking over, as this would be. I present as evidence the Labour government of 1964-66, majority 4, where even the wildest of left-wingers was restrained. A counter example is John Major's ill-fated 1992-97 government, which is why I added the rider that it needs to be a new party in government.
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My gut feeling is that a sort of median prediction, erring on the pessimistic side of a prediction that I would not like to see come to pass, would have the Conservatives not reaching 326 but coming very close. They can probably get by adequately with a total in the low 320s when you consider that to defeat them would take all the "opposition" parties lining up together which seems unlikely, not least considering factors like Sinn Fein MPs not voting as a result of not swearing loyalty to the Queen. (On the other hand, getting to the low 320s puts them in greater danger should their own MPs decide to rebel, but I think that party discipline may well not be too hard to achieve if close-to-100% compliance is required to get contentious matters through.)
Perhaps the top-of-the-poll Lib Dems might spring a surprise yet! We can only hope...
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The LibDem surge on the face of it renders my "there won't be a hung Parliament" comments not only unfortunately timed but also hopelessly wrong, but I remain of the view that an outright Tory win, albeit by a narrow margin, is the most likely outcome.
The historical evidence suggests that you are correct in supposing party discipline may be easier to maintain if the margins are tight provided - and this is important - it's a new party taking over, as this would be. I present as evidence the Labour government of 1964-66, majority 4, where even the wildest of left-wingers was restrained. A counter example is John Major's ill-fated 1992-97 government, which is why I added the rider that it needs to be a new party in government.
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