The 2nd debate

[geisha_guy]

Been ages since I posted, but up watching the 2nd debate tonight. Its hard putting faith in the American people after 8 years of Bush, but I have to believe they wont fall for the blatant flip-flopping of the McCain campaign over the past few weeks, and he's doing nothing to dispel that tonight so far

Comments

[ulaire_daidoji]

The "My Friends" Schtick really got on my nerves.

Bookies are giving odds of 11-4 on Mcain , 1-4 on Obama.

I still reckon Obama needs about a 9-10 point lead in the polls come November. When asked by pollsters, a lot of people say race isn't an issue but inside that little booth when push comes shove a lot of people are secretly racist.

[geisha_guy]

McCain's routine was straight out of the Reagan playbook actually, but he doesn't have the charisma to pull that off.

I agree on the Race issue - of all elections these polls are skewed as a result of this. What worries me most is the fact that ethnic voters may not turn out if they think Obama has that 10-point lead, and it is a bit of an Elephant in the Room that no-one has addressed it. Obama could do with a strong black community leader to get out there and beat the drum on turning out to vote, because you can be damn sure McCain and Palin will don their white hoods if necessary.

[ulaire_daidoji]

The Bradley Effect (the tendency of voters to say they'll vote for a black candidate in polls and then not do so in the actual election) is somewhat overhyped. Though it seems to exist in some states, it's not uniform across the US and appears to have diminished in recent times

[geisha_guy]

My focus was very much on voter turnout to be honest.

I still believe some of the polls are skewed, but as you say, not across the country. To be honest, the primaries version of the 'reverse bradley effect' as you put it was totally off as there was a combination sexism/racism thing going on.

[solo1y]

What struck me is the almost identical positions they adopt on all the major issues. Again they were competing to see who was the greatest friend of Israel, instead of committing to adopt a sensible policy towards that ersatz state.

All in all, it is as you said, the same rhetoric we heard during the last debate. Obama has so many things he could use to nail McCain's ass to the table - that he doesn't betrays where his loyalties lie.

[geisha_guy]

I think Obama is hoping he won't have to lurch left at any point in the run-up to the election day, and that by holding a safe centrist course he can let McCain marginalise himself further by raging on the right.

Talk about life imitating art though - for Vinnick/Santos and nuclear, see McCain/Obama and economy.

[solo1y]

I'd agree with that. Obama wants to run as positive campaign as he can (because that's Changey and he said he would) and now that he has the lead, he doesn't need to run negative, except to counter McCain's attacks.

(I didn't see the last season of West Wing, but I doubt Vinnick's veep went about describing Santos as an associate of terrorists; also Vinnick seemed to be far less of an asshole than McCain is - see the Rolling Stone's profile of him.)

As Obama said yesterday (channelling Bruce Boxleitner as John Sheridan from B5)- "we don't throw the first punch, but we'll throw the last one".

And at the risk of opening a can of worms, what's erstatz about the state of Israel?

Is it doing bad, illegal and immoral things in its occupation of the West Bank? Certainly.

Is the support of both presidential candidates too uncritical of these abuses? Definitely.

Do either of these things make Israel ersatz (by which I take it you mean false or illegitimate)? No.

P.

[dundragon]

MaCain was obsessed with slamming Obama on several issues. He loved that overhead projector for some reason. He just generally came across as a dirty old man. From what I can gather he has lost some support for his evasive answers and Obama bashing, that said a debate has never turned an election in the states (apart from reaffirming the belief that Sarah Palin is a nut case) so we will just have to wait 27 more days to see :)

[stabarinde]

To be fair, Putin *was* a KGB agent. But that doesn't mean one should go out and antagonise the head of another powerful state. Just, cos your Veep can see his country from her house. ;-)