Every cloud ...

[geoffrey_f]

In which I say little that will make any sense for those not interested in Australian politics.

Tomorrow, Australians will elected a bunch of vaguely racist, variably homophobic, largely sexist morons to office. Don't get me wrong, Labor's stuffed up royally, but this particular Opposition is so noxious that the concept still makes me ill. So in the hope that tomorrow may not be a total write-off, here are my hoped-for silver linings - the things I can actually hope for, that might actually happen.

• The Greens to hold steady. This looked unlikely earlier in the campaign but looks possible now. Adam Bandt may hold Melbourne. I count two almost definite Green seats in the Senate (Peter Whish-Wilson in Tasmania and Janet Rice in Victoria), two maybes (Scott Ludlam in WA and Cate Faehrmann in NSW) and three long shots (Adam Stone in Queensland, Sarah Hanson-Young in SA and Simon Sheikh in the ACT).
• A minimum of crazies in the Senate. The nature of probability indicates that we'll get at least one (not counting Cory Bernardi), but let's hope they aren't too many and that they're comparatively sane. Please, NSW, no Pauline.
• Palmer to win Fairfax. At least things'll be more interesting. I'd also love to see him win Fisher, just to thwart Mal Brough.
• Katter to scare a few complacent Nats.
• Andrew Wilkie to be re-elected, obviously.
• Sophie Mirabella to go down in Indi. A Coalition government would be that much more palatable without her in it - plus it would be a great morale-boost for independents if Cathy McGowan is elected.
• The Liberals to win Mallee and O'Connor from the Nats. This is a purely electoral-nerd wish, but the sooner the Coalition is just the Conservative Party (or whatever they decide to call it), the better. This means I am always pulling for the Libs in intra-Coalition contests.
• The right Labor MPs to lose their seats. This election should be the death knell for the NSW Right (well, that should really have been three years ago, but apparently not), and hopefully it will take some of the dafter MPs with it. John Murphy, for example, would be no loss - nor would Ursula Stephens, or Laurie Ferguson. On the other hand, I dearly hope Janelle Saffin and Mike Kelly can hold on.
• Post-election, the clearing of the air for Labor. Rudd and Swan both need to go for this to happen. Then promote some real talent - like Andrew Leigh and Melissa Parke - and take down Abbott in three years (wishful thinking?).
• A sizeable small-l liberal flank in the Coalition. Sadly most of these folks are running in Labor seats. Russell Broadbent of course will still be there, and Simon Birmingham in the Senate, but part of me hopes that Bill Glasson takes down Rudd in Griffith and Kevin Ekendahl takes Melbourne Ports, just so that there are some (comparatively) progressive voices in the Coalition party room.
• Wikileaks humiliated. They have been a textbook example of how not to run a minor party campaign.

UPDATE: The Morning After

• Greens went back a bit, but likely to hold or increase their number of seats. Adam Bandt did brilliantly in Melbourne and probably has that seat for good now.
• Senate a total mess. Motoring Enthusiasts and Sports Party (neither of whom anyone has ever heard of) likely to get up from less than 1% of the vote. Liberal Democrats get 9% and a seat in NSW from idiots who can't tell the difference between them and the Liberal Party.
• Palmer probably wins Fairfax!
• Katter absolutely tanked. Oh well. Will be interesting to see if Ray Hopper and Shane Knuth jump over to Palmer now.
• Andrew Wilkie also did really well. Good for him.
• Sophie Mirabella got a scare but looks likely to scrape home in Indi. Damn.
• The Nationals probably won Mallee but the Libs got back O'Connor.
• Janelle Saffin definitely gone. But so are Stephens and Murphy. Come on Mike Kelly!
• Rudd not contesting leadership. Now he, Swan and (one hopes) Fitzgibbon must leave parliament.
• Small-l liberals ... enh. I don't know. Birmingham in trouble in SA.
• Wikileaks. HA.