Comments | glenbarnett: Finally some postal votes counted in Bennelong

glenbarnett

Finally some postal votes counted in Bennelong

Nov 29, 2007 17:51

Looks like a bit over half the postal votes are up ( Read more... )

Comments 8

eynowd November 29 2007, 11:18:13 UTC

I suspect that the two major parties are already taking McKew's win for granted, as she was appointed a Parliamentary Secretary to the Prime Minister this afternoon.

If it wasn't a fait accompli, it would seem a little premature to do that, I would think.

glenbarnett November 29 2007, 23:25:30 UTC

Yes, I saw. I think they were already pretty confident, but the postal vote count (which came before the announcement that she was to be a parliamentary secretary was made) clinched it sufficiently. But I wanted to play with the numbers and see just how sure it was at this point. The answer is now - as near as it's reasonably possible to be sure. If the postal vote had been running 60-40, there'd still have been a slim chance on the remaining votes, but it isn't even close to that.

[The odd thing is, if Howard somehow gets up anyway, it's now clear he'd look to resign almost immediately, and McKew would romp in against an unknown... but we'd have to wait six weeks and waste a fortune before it was over. The whole thing is a charade at this point. But even though the stake is in, I'm waiting to see the sun come up and the bones turn to dust before I relax. He's referred to comebacks in the past as Lazarus with a triple bypass, and still returned. I'm not being fooled again.]

divaflip November 30 2007, 03:18:09 UTC

he effectively conceded in his speech on Saturday night ( ... )

divaflip November 30 2007, 03:34:47 UTC

actually, at the moment the Victorians have to suck it up. with Rubb (QLD) / Gillard (SA) and Nelson (NSW) / Bishop (WA), the state that considers it the natural seat of goverment has noone in leaders positions.

imo Nelson is a lightweight and probably going to be a disaster, but the other contenders for his spot were from NSW anyway.

glenbarnett November 30 2007, 06:56:17 UTC

I've lived in Bennelong for 26 years come January (apart from a few short periods elsewhere). This election was the first time I actually *saw* John Howard here (other than in the newspaper at some occasional local event). This election I saw him three times in one day - after Maxine looked threatening ( ... )

glenbarnett November 30 2007, 06:58:14 UTC

Oh, and if you're bothered by my interest in seeing the back of John Howard, I apologise for my intemperate words.

Thread 6