Midseason Thoughts on UW Huskies Football
Well, it’s more or less the half-way point of the 2012 college football season, and as many a commentator has said, it can be tough to evaluate a team until they get into October. Having reached that point, the Washington Huskies are 3-3 on the season, which, given the terribly frontloaded schedule, is slightly better than expected, but there are still a number of areas for concern.
The 3 wins include a tougher than expected win against San Diego State, a blow-out win over FCS Portland State, and an upset against then-#8 Stanford (now ranked at #20 after that loss and another at Notre Dame.) The three losses include blowouts at then-#3 LSU (now # after a loss to Florida) and #2 Oregon (3rd in the first BCS rankings,) as well as self-destructing at home against USC.
The positives this year so far have largely been on the defensive side of the ball. After last year’s abysmal performance, almost the entire defensive coaching staff was fired, and Justin Wilcox was hired away from Tennessee to become the new defensive coordinator. The improvement has been dramatic, and instead of being one of the very worst defenses, has improved to about an average one in just one year. Despite losing a couple players to injury, the front 7 have so far done a serviceable job pressuring opposing quarterbacks and stopping the run, for the most part, despite giving up more big plays than would be desirable. Somewhat more worrying is the team’s problems in actually sacking opposing quarterbacks, with only 9 on the season so far, a significant drop compared to last year. Perhaps the most dramatic improvement has been in the secondary, which is breaking up more passes than before, and so far, is giving up over a hundred fewer passing yards a game compared to last year. However, there is still quite a bit of work to be done, as the defense is giving up more big plays than would be desirable, while there’s still a gap in talent, depth, and speed compared to other teams, which became apparent in the losses- against LSU, a much bigger & more physical team was eventually able to wear down and run over the defense (though being left out there constantly due to offensive failures didn’t help), while both against Oregon and during the first half against USC, the defense was simply overwhelmed by more offensive threats than they had the resources to deal with, given the shortcomings in talent, depth, and speed. Although there remains much work to be done on the defensive side of the ball, there has been considerable improvement and signs of promise for the future if recruiting pans out.
Unfortunately, the same can’t be said for the offense, which has struggled. In many ways, the problems with the Huskies this season are the reverse of last season’s- instead of a potent offense hamstrung by an inept defense, there’s an adequate defense trying to keep the game close enough so a nearly useless offense can manage pull it out. To give an idea of how bad it is, according to the stats on ESPN, the average of 186.5 passing yards per game is 105th in the country, the 131 rushing yards per game is 92nd, and the 21.3 points per game is 102nd among FBS teams. Not good. On the field, it seems like just about every phase of the game is out of sync- pass protection is constantly breaking down before receivers can get open, which is made worse by there only being two receivers who have made any impact, WR Kasen Williams & TE Austin Sefarian-Jenkins. The rushing game has also struggled to be a decisive factor, as although Bishop Sankey, unexpectedly thrown into the starring role has performed adequately, there have been difficulties in getting big runs to force defenses open, short gains to get first downs, and generally burn off the clock. To make matters worse, QB Keith Price has struggled mightily, with a lot of incomplete passes and several costly interceptions & fumbles, while putting up numbers that are nowhere close to those of last year. On the field, it seems like he’s understandably lost confidence in his protection, given just how often he's getting hit, and is hearing footsteps, and feels like he hast to get rid of the ball quickly or try to make something happen on the ground himself, with decidedly mixed results.
The collapse of the offense is somewhat explainable by what happened in the off-season. To start with, two of the top receivers, as well as running back Chris Polk graduated, removing 3 of the top offensive threats and playmakers the Huskies had, and their absence is sorely felt. Then, the quarterback’s coach got hired away to Alabama, and his loss shows in that Price’s basic mechanics don’t look as good as they were last year. However, the biggest factor is in how the team, especially the offense, has just been gutted by injuries this season. So far, there have been 14 players who have lost time due to injuries, most of them season-enders, and that burden has fallen disproportionately on the offense- 4 out of 5 projected starting offensive linemen, the 1st string running back Jesse Callier, who was expected to be a major part of the offense before suffering a season-ending torn ACL in the first quarter of the season opener, as well as the third string running back, and the two most likely candidates to be the No. 2 WR, and it shows in the lack of offensive production due to a lack of targets for Price, the typical breakdown of his protection, and having to cut out large sections of the playbook as a consequence. Injuries like that would ruin the season of any team, but it’s not all bad luck behind the problems. From observing the play, it seems that the coaching and player development has also played a role, as the schemes being used don’t seem to do that well at compensating for the weakness of the available players, while some of the players, particularly the offensive linemen, seem to be repeating the same, fundamental mistakes in their technique game after game. Furthermore, the failure of the coaching staff to recruit more than a mere handful of linemen the last couple seasons has also played a role in the current woes.
Hopefully, the offense will improve as the new players grow into their roles (and work on their ball security) and some of the original starters recover from their injuries (as well as an easier schedule ahead), but in the off-season, the team needs to take a serious look at its offensive coaching, as well as the strength and conditioning program, in addition to recruiting some depth to the offensive line and skill positions.
The special teams have also performed adequately for the most part, turning in a performance as good as that of the opponents, though not as well as last year, as the kicker and are all new, replacing graduating seniors. However, ball security issues have also plagued the Huskies here, most notably a fumble against Oregon that led to a touchdown, and a blocked punt returned for a touchdown against USC that was a real mental blow to the team, which needs to be worked on before it causes any more damage.
Overall, a 3-3 record is slightly better than expected against the level of opposition, as being 2-4 at this point was quite likely and that extra win could be crucial in the Huskies attempt to get to a bowl this year. Next up is a trip to Arizona, where the Huskies will have to deal with a potent offense, though a notably weaker defense, in a game that could be critical to both teams’ bowl hopes, followed by hosting #8 Oregon State. Theoretically, things get easier with the last 4 games, a trip to California, then returning home to host Utah, and then ending the season on the road with Colorado and Washington State, though Cal, Utah, & Colorado have all shown themselves to be capable of putting together a better game than their record would suggest if things go right for them, and Washington State, is, of course, a rivalry game where strange things can happen. Still, there ought to be the 3-4 wins needed to make a bowl somewhere in there, as the back half of the schedule is easier than the first part, facing lesser teams with weaker defenses than the competition so far has offered, and if things go well, the Huskies could still be the 7-5 team that most, myself included, predicted them to be, despite all the issues that have made things go sideways for the team so far.
Next up is at Arizona tomorrow, at 7 PM PT, televised on the PAC-12 Network.
Go Huskies!