Re: Stock valuesieyasuSeptember 11 2002, 03:57:45 UTC
post hoc ergo propter hoc, at best.
Actually, the broader market had been down well before September 11th anyway. And the effect of either Enron, Worldcom, or the like on the level of the market is actually pretty trivial, particularly in comparison with, oh, a five-year long asset-price bubble.
Enron and Worldcom make really good headline grabbers, but from an economic view their effect is trivial.
Re: Stock valuesbateleurSeptember 11 2002, 05:10:18 UTC
Comparatively trivial I'll give you, but coincidence it most certainly was not. If you think so, you have some odd ideas about statistics.
In any case, I based my observation not on media opinion (which I don't even read, never mind agree with) so much as the values of various things (the usual indices, my own holdings, etc.).
Re: Stock valuesieyasuSeptember 11 2002, 05:27:50 UTC
Broader markets had been in decline since well before 9/11. The main stock indices were well in decline before Worldcom or Enron. There is a 'mystery' about why there has been no upturn in stock markets after a 'recovery', but the recovery is quite mild, and it's not really unsurprising.
Seriously, neither Worldcom nor Enron were more than a symptom, although there is a fashion for money running to 'reliability' which has some ripple effects. Mostly, the fall is PE ratios reaching something close to 'high above traditional rates.' I'd wager to say that 9/11 had a bigger impact on the broader markets than either Enron or Worldcom, to be honest.
As for your holdings, I couldn't tell you, but unless you've got a very broad portfolio, drawing conclusions as to what's going on in a stock market from your particular shareholdings is 'an odd idea about statistics.'
It just made me laugh out loud. A good thing, actually, because it's been a pretty dismal few days and I benefited from the amusement. I think Ishmael's a most unlikely Jewish name - this is assuming from the order of the names you intended that one to be the Jewish one?! Jonny's considerably more likely, given history and stuff.
Yes, afraid that in my rather poetic mood I slipped and exchanged Ishmael for Isaac. For some reason I can never get the actors in that particular story straight without looking up the family tree.
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I note (without comment) that the market is down not from random swings or from Sept 11th but as a consequence of the Enron and WorldCom incidents.
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Actually, the broader market had been down well before September 11th anyway. And the effect of either Enron, Worldcom, or the like on the level of the market is actually pretty trivial, particularly in comparison with, oh, a five-year long asset-price bubble.
Enron and Worldcom make really good headline grabbers, but from an economic view their effect is trivial.
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In any case, I based my observation not on media opinion (which I don't even read, never mind agree with) so much as the values of various things (the usual indices, my own holdings, etc.).
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Seriously, neither Worldcom nor Enron were more than a symptom, although there is a fashion for money running to 'reliability' which has some ripple effects. Mostly, the fall is PE ratios reaching something close to 'high above traditional rates.' I'd wager to say that 9/11 had a bigger impact on the broader markets than either Enron or Worldcom, to be honest.
As for your holdings, I couldn't tell you, but unless you've got a very broad portfolio, drawing conclusions as to what's going on in a stock market from your particular shareholdings is 'an odd idea about statistics.'
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(The comment has been removed)
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For some reason Livejournal posted it twice...
It just made me laugh out loud. A good thing, actually, because it's been a pretty dismal few days and I benefited from the amusement. I think Ishmael's a most unlikely Jewish name - this is assuming from the order of the names you intended that one to be the Jewish one?! Jonny's considerably more likely, given history and stuff.
Eal.
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I have now corrected it in the text.
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??Ishmael??
(Thought I'd comment on the important points!)
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