Let's talk about Coronavirus

[ithilwen]

I haven't been posting much recently (translation="I haven't been posting much at all"), but I thought I'd emerge like a zombie from my DW/LJ grave to help my online friends understand the truth about this new disease that taking up so much media bandwidth. First lesson: coronavirus is the name of an RNA virus family; there are many, many

Comments

[rcfinch]

Hi Ithilwen! Good to see your post, and thanks for the explanation!
I do have a question: what do you think about strict home quarantaine for mild cases? This seems to be the preferred solution in the Netherlands, but it comes with a list of instructions so extensive that people are likely to forget (or ignore) a few.

[ithilwen]

Home quarantine is fine; if a few people forget all the restrictions, it's not going to make a big difference in the larger picture. Remember, a lot of people are going to be walking around asymptomatic and shedding virus, or walking around with "a cold" shedding virus; these people are not going to be quarantined because they are not going to the doctor and will never be diagnosed with COVID-19.

What needs to be done, in advance of the disease hitting hard, is "increasing social distance" (which is fancy codespeak for closing public venues where lots of people gather and spread their germs). done quickly, it can make a big difference. In the 1918 influenza pandemc the city of St. Louis had half the deaths of Philadelphia, largely because they acted quickly to slow the spread of the disease; https://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/17/health/17flu.html.

[rcfinch]

Thank you for the explanation and the fascinating link. There are hopeful signs of authorities rethinking big gatherings, though there seems to be a lot of laxity, too. In any case, I think I'll avoid busy locations for the time being.
Hope you are and will remain well!

[tyellas]

Sorry, Antipodeans, you're going to have to deal with this now. Consider it taking one for the team.

Thanks! Thanks a lot! Seriously, this is an incredibly helpful and well written post. I've shared the article link with several people already. We've stocked up here today, I'm all set up to work from home, and I'm resolved to be brave about it. Which I can be, without children and with good physical/mental health.

It's great to hear from you and to see everyone's comments - like old times!

[ithilwen]

I'm glad you found this post helpful. The US media, as usual, is alternating between "we're all going to DIE!!!" and "it's just a cold!" (mostly in comments from right-wing trolls). The truth, of course, is neither. Honestly, I wish the news media here would just put up a link to that Scientific American article and leave it at that.

South Korea, which has done the most wide scale testing, is posting a mortality rate of around 0.5%; that's better than the 2% originally calculated but still 5x the death rate of seasonal influenza. If we take the necessary steps to slow the spread of this thing so hospitals aren't overwhelmed, we may just be looking at the "Flu" Season from Hell. I'll happily take that!

And boy is it good to hear from everybody again! This may just inspire me to start writing in this journal again (especially since at the moment my hospital doesn't have LJ blocked).