Simple covid vaccine math

[izard]

Some may think that I am beating a dead horse here, but the horse isn't dead until there are still active covid vaccine mandates in USA.

According to CDC director's recent public announcement

https://twitter.com/CDCDirector/status/1705349114190295043
at 1:

Comments

[agasfer]

You need to calculate serious health damage of all kinds, including death, for vaccinated and non-vaccinated, then compare. The heart inflammation effect may be reversed or overshadowed by other kind of ill effects. Also, there is a large fraction of population who were vaccinated but still had covid, myself included. And those who had covid before vaccination. What you gonna do with them?

[izard]

Myocarditis and pericarditis are just two rare but severe side effects. Of course there are others like my wife's best friend in Switzerland just had a surgery after a side effect she got from her Moderna shot (according to her doctor).

Regarding death, difference is even more apparent. CDC recently published that vaccinating 1000000 kids would save 0-1 kid from death. Vaccinating 1000000 teen boys would lead to ~275 events of myocarditis and about same number of events of pericarditis.

CDC was always telling that vaccine caused heart damage is mild and reversible, but now enough time has passed since first victims appeared so studies appeared that made follow-up checks and if I recall correctly ~20% still had some detectable heart damage and were on meds. So in order to save 0-1 live in this demographics they need to cripple ~50 kids for life.

[utasss]

Прикольные расчёты, спасибо, что поделился.
Тут самое тонкое место, имхо, это 0.25. Разве дети в школе не болеют гриппом каждый год? Или прививки от гриппа снижают вероятность заражения для отдельного ребёнка прям до 1/10 или даже 1/4?

[izard]

Не знаю насчет гриппа (вроде не каждый год), но по ковиду уже есть статистика - мой сын болел один раз, хотя пиков ковида было уже 6 за 4 года, заболел как раз на 6-м. И это еще без антител. С антителами может быть лучше, чем один из 4 лет. Прививки от гриппа для взрослых работают на 50-60%. Для детей вряд ли лучше.