Japan, China and the future

[jackfaust]

Recent events in Japan and elsewhere have left me sad and apprehensive. I'm looking beyond the unfolding nuclear disaster - no point worrying about what is a certainty. Only thing in question about that matter is how much more insanely bad that is going to get.* No, I'm thinking about how the events in Japan will serve as a tipping point in the

Comments

[pat_man_ta]

China will eventually tear itself apart and fail in its pile of poorly understood tech. and counterfeit goods. They don't worry me.

[jackfaust]

Perhaps they will, but when? And, when you have such a behemoth reeling about and bouncing off the surround, what will be the damage? They will have nukes, a large army and lots and lots of angry, frightened people. Will they follow the old pattern of distracting their populace from internal strife with external enemies? Likely. I expect they'll embroil themselves with a regional, non-nuclear power in order to get a quick win. Hell, they could invade Vietnam! Its right next door, they've done it before, and we all know how much of a distraction THAT place can be.

I also expect China would resolve the Taiwan issue in favor of the People's Republic.

Even if they collapse upon themselves like a cheaply-made WallMart doodad, there are economic shockwaves to ponder. Globalization has entwined us mightily. We won't extract ourselves from them quickly or easily.