Do my homework
A) So I have a bunch of data plotting the outcomes of basketball games against the scores predicted by the Sagarin ratings. I'd like to create a function that maps predicted margin of victory to probability of victory.
If I knew that the actual margins were normally distributed about the predicted margins, this would be easy. How can I determine whether or not this is the case? If it's not, how can I get that probability function without resorting to the histogram method?
B) Having created this Sagarin probability measure, I would like to spend next season making it fight against the Pomeroy ratings. Is there a standard method for evaluating probabilistic predictions?
C) Does anybody know a reasonably efficient (i.e., automatable) way to get game data?
Also, if anyone cares, I'll be in Chapel Hill for the next week or so.