that blimp is history now..

[jonathankaplan]

About a year ago I wrote this entry, indicating it was time to sell stocks.Since then, perceptions have shifted dramatically, awareness of difficulties has shot up, and instead of greed, the market (and the people) have a lot more fear in their psyche. The shift from greed to fear is what moves the stock market down. We've done a lot of that shift

Comments

[polyanarch]

You've got to do something with your money. Inflation is going to burn it all up as it shrinks to nothing in your wallet.

And I've got a sinking suspicion that in the next year, as the economy goes even further south and banks are falling like flies, they are going to devalue the currency.

Amero anyone? Maybe not, but they might very well just print pink money with a zero or two knocked off the end.

So, you've got to do SOMETHING with that money before it dissipates in your pocket.

Me, I'm buying durable goods. Stuff I need, stuff that will help me and mine make it through tough times.

[prock]

I'll go on record and say that the selloff from the highs is at least half over, price-wise.

Heh, thanks for the comfort there. Good to know that the most the market will fall is 70%.

[kenshi]

Actually, 85% to 90% wouldn't be outside of historic norms for a correction of the magnitude this looks to be.

[jonathankaplan]

A lot of individual stocks are down more than that already.

But yeah, it didn't feel like I was really saying too much with that comment.

[madwriter]

Even as someone who invests in precious metals, when Jim Cramer and...shoot, don't remember, the Motley Fool I think...start talking about selling your stocks and buying gold, I get a little nervous.

[kenshi]

The time to really buy is at the point of total capitulation and despondency. As long the "buy and hold" crowd are still talking about keeping steady rather than fleeing for the exits, it's too early to buy. As long as the market makes the news, it too early to buy. Wait until the market has become resigned to its own doom.

Right now, the market is accelerating into Fear from Denial. From here, we go to Desperation, Panic, Capitulation, Despondency, and Depression before it cycles back up again.

[prock]

Probably won't be for another five to ten years either.

[kenshi]

Maybe. It's not time dependent, but psychology dependent. The 1929 crash occurred at the Desperation-Panic stage and didn't fully bottom out until 1932, at which point the market reversed itself dramatically (most people still don't realize that 1932-1937 was a huge bull market for stocks...percentage-wise one of the biggest bull markets in American history).

[prock]

You say that like psychology isn't a function of time.

[nokomisjeff]

A study of the Panic of 1873 would give a better indicator than 1929, of what we might be in for. Anyways, until I see a capitulation, I won't be bullish. Here's a little chart that's interesting.
http://www.nuclearphynance.com/User%20Files/98/New%20Image.JPG

Anyways, these markets have been a blast and I've had a good year in trading. This has to be the most well advertised panic, with the biggest lead time, of any panic in the history of the planet.

Jeff