A brief look into the future
Starting at the centre of world affairs, America.
In the wake of 9/11 the US security state has grown exponentially in size and budget. To quote from the article:
"With the quick infusion of money, military and intelligence agencies multiplied. Twenty-four organizations were created by the end of 2001, including the Office of Homeland Security and the Foreign Terrorist Asset Tracking Task Force. In 2002, 37 more were created to track weapons of mass destruction, collect threat tips and coordinate the new focus on counterterrorism. That was followed the next year by 36 new organizations; and 26 after that; and 31 more; and 32 more; and 20 or more each in 2007, 2008 and 2009.
In all, at least 263 organizations have been created or reorganized as a response to 9/11. Each has required more people, and those people have required more administrative and logistic support: phone operators, secretaries, librarians, architects, carpenters, construction workers, air-conditioning mechanics and, because of where they work, even janitors with top-secret clearances."
Some would say that such a huge bureaucracy is impossible to control. They point to the Fast and Furious scandal as an example. That was an operation to see where arms shipments went in Mexico; It did not work according to plan.
Are we moving towards a cyberpunk future? A weak central govt, powerful corporations and private interests, technology run wild? A key trope of the genre is private armies that can deploy specialists from all walks of life. Here are the American forces for hire. Presumably there are Chinese, Indian and Brazilian merc corps.
Will China inevitably be the number 1 power in the world? If the long view of history is a guide, yes but if Economics is a guide then the answer might be no. Michael Pettis argues that the Chinese boom is not like the country, unique and exceptional, but the world's largest investment boom; We are now waiting for the inevitable end that comes with every investment boom. He speaks on this topic with wit and poise. To summarise his talk, Russia boomed in the 60's, they were seen as unstoppable and would soon rule the world. They went bankrupt in the 70's. Japan boomed in the 80's, they were seen as unstoppable and would soon rule the world. China's boom is the biggest the world has ever seen. No country has ever done more to seek growth. There are many people who are convinced that China's extraordinary economic growth will continue into the future. Others are not so sure. Pettis's time horizon for a China slowdown is 4-5 years. If that happened then it will have consequences for the resource economies that have profited from its boom; Canada and Australia come to mind. They have yet to experience the bust that Europe is enjoying. Their housing bubble is yet to burst.
7 of the 17 members of the Euro area are in need of emergency funding. Cyprus has turned to Russia for help. The cost of the bailout now looks enormous, who will pay? who wants to pay? Possibly not Finland. The Finnish Finance minister said the country could leave the Euro rather than pay and keeping on paying debts forever. Who will exit the Euro first? Finland, Greece, what about Germany?
In the wake of 9/11 the US security state has grown exponentially in size and budget. To quote from the article:
"With the quick infusion of money, military and intelligence agencies multiplied. Twenty-four organizations were created by the end of 2001, including the Office of Homeland Security and the Foreign Terrorist Asset Tracking Task Force. In 2002, 37 more were created to track weapons of mass destruction, collect threat tips and coordinate the new focus on counterterrorism. That was followed the next year by 36 new organizations; and 26 after that; and 31 more; and 32 more; and 20 or more each in 2007, 2008 and 2009.
In all, at least 263 organizations have been created or reorganized as a response to 9/11. Each has required more people, and those people have required more administrative and logistic support: phone operators, secretaries, librarians, architects, carpenters, construction workers, air-conditioning mechanics and, because of where they work, even janitors with top-secret clearances."
Some would say that such a huge bureaucracy is impossible to control. They point to the Fast and Furious scandal as an example. That was an operation to see where arms shipments went in Mexico; It did not work according to plan.
Are we moving towards a cyberpunk future? A weak central govt, powerful corporations and private interests, technology run wild? A key trope of the genre is private armies that can deploy specialists from all walks of life. Here are the American forces for hire. Presumably there are Chinese, Indian and Brazilian merc corps.
Will China inevitably be the number 1 power in the world? If the long view of history is a guide, yes but if Economics is a guide then the answer might be no. Michael Pettis argues that the Chinese boom is not like the country, unique and exceptional, but the world's largest investment boom; We are now waiting for the inevitable end that comes with every investment boom. He speaks on this topic with wit and poise. To summarise his talk, Russia boomed in the 60's, they were seen as unstoppable and would soon rule the world. They went bankrupt in the 70's. Japan boomed in the 80's, they were seen as unstoppable and would soon rule the world. China's boom is the biggest the world has ever seen. No country has ever done more to seek growth. There are many people who are convinced that China's extraordinary economic growth will continue into the future. Others are not so sure. Pettis's time horizon for a China slowdown is 4-5 years. If that happened then it will have consequences for the resource economies that have profited from its boom; Canada and Australia come to mind. They have yet to experience the bust that Europe is enjoying. Their housing bubble is yet to burst.
7 of the 17 members of the Euro area are in need of emergency funding. Cyprus has turned to Russia for help. The cost of the bailout now looks enormous, who will pay? who wants to pay? Possibly not Finland. The Finnish Finance minister said the country could leave the Euro rather than pay and keeping on paying debts forever. Who will exit the Euro first? Finland, Greece, what about Germany?