Yay for Indiana!

[kaprin02]

The following poll has Barack Obama up by 10 points in Indiana. :) Now I'd just like someone else to do another poll, since all the other polls are over 2 weeks old. I'd like to know if this is some sort of outlier or if this is really how Indiana is swinging.

Poll Here.

Full Results Here.

Comments

[tomfoolery815]

Wow! When's the last time Indiana went to a Democrat? :-)

[kaprin02]

Um, a long time ago? :)

I just googled it, and it says 1964, Lyndon Johnson.

[flippet]

Wow.

I'm still looking at the full results, but I'm wondering how the weighting of R's vs. D's matches up with state registrations.

Because with that wide a margin, I'd be suspicious that they got too many Dems in their sample. It seems to me that the percentage of Independents is a little high at 24%, but like I said, I don't know what the state registered percentages are.

[kaprin02]

Indiana doesn't have required party registration. I'm not specifically registered to either party, but neither am I a registered independent. I kind of wondered the same thing too, though. The last "nonpartisan" polls that were done are over 2 weeks old, and they had the race pretty tight, and with the economy/financial crisis, I guess the swing is possible. I don't know. That's why I'd like to see another poll done here. Another thing about this poll is that it was only land lines; cell phone only homes were not polled (I guess they're starting to poll cell phones?). So that could throw the result off as well (although you'd think that would be to the dems advantage). So who really knows? I just know that I'm going to vote at lunch today, so I'll be all taken care of. :)

[flippet]

I just know that I'm going to vote at lunch today, so I'll be all taken care of. :)

Arrgh! To the best of my knowledge, Michigan doesn't have early voting (unless you're voting absentee). I wanna vote NOW!!!!!!!

I'd forgotten that Indiana doesn't require party affiliation. The electoral vote site I look at still has Indiana edged pink, but they average polls within the last week, so until others drop off, this one won't make a huge dent.

However, the interesting thing to me is that the upper Plains states are slipping--ND is white (tied), SD is pink, and MT is edged pink. I doubt that they'll go blue this time, but just the fact that they're not solid red is highly intriguing.

[kaprin02]

I tend to check out realclearpolitics.com for my poll averages. Which still has McCain at +.6%. I'm nto sure how long they average, but the other 2 polls in the average are over 2 weeks old, but have McCain in the lead. They also only average nonpartisan polls, so there was another poll with Obama leading that was excluded from the average due to the partisanship of the polling group. Politico.com and other political news sites use the RCP averages as well, so I tend to trust their numbers.

Anyway, off to vote! Yes, I'm trying to make you jealous. ;)

[gatsbyfan]

I have a friend from work canvassing in Indiana next weekend. Another friend from high school, a lawyer, volunteering on election day.

I've been having fun watching the NYT electoral map.