[Stats] When Obama wins, he wins BIG

[kdavoli]

Data grabbed from Google News's Coverage of the Primaries. Insight and analyses mine, with the aid of nifty graphic from my trial version of the Graph Pad Prism software Version 5.

The red point is Arkansas.

Comments

[kdavoli]

Here's some analyses of mine that may help:

The main finding: When Obama wins, he wins (on average) with a greater margin of victory over his opponents. Clinton's wins are almost all close races (excepting her (pseudo-) home State of Arkansas (indicated in red).

Additional findings:

The "biggest win" States for Obama are small delegate holders.
In order from biggest win to closest race, Obama's wins are:
IDaho (18 delegates)
AlasKa (13)
KanSas (21)
COlorado (55)
MiNisota (72)
GeorgiA (87)
ILlinois (153)
North Dakota (13)
UTah (23)
ALabama (52)
South Carolina (45)
DElaware (15)
ConnecTicut (48)

The "biggest win" State for Clinton is also a small delegate holder.
Clinton won (one of her) home State(s) of Arkansas by a statistically significantly higher margin than by which she won any other race. It is so statistically significantly different, that it counts as a statistical outlier (the big red dot in the graph). But AR only offers 35 delegates.

Conclusions

Obama has a better-financed campaign.Clinton spent a lot more time and

[mrfishes]

I had noticed something like that in the New York Times's data, too. . .

It'll be interesting to see also how many districts he'll have taken in California and New York, too, where a significant segment of the delegates are allocated according to congressional-district, rather than state-wide, results. . .

[mrfishes]

On second look, Obama's also winning close contests: The New York Times shows only three states where Clinton and Obama are separated by less than 5 points. Obama gets all three of them (CT, 51-47; MO, 49-48; NM, 49-48).

[epinephric]

Obama's also getting creamed in NY, according to CNN. NY's delegates are most of the difference he's behind.

[kdavoli]

Yeah. When I plotted the "weighted win" values, the highest point is Clinton's NY victory.