I can't see the conseratives picking up that many seats in ontario. My feeling is the party is viewed as two far western right wing. I don't think it plays well here.
Just so i'm clear - that's if 2% of the votes in general across the province switch from the Libs to the Conseratives across the board? I'm not sure that 2% of the votes in more than 2 or more ridings would make the votes that close.
In each riding, if 2% of the votes that had gone Liberal went Tory.
Cutting it down to the simplest scenario (i.e. claiming that no other party's vote will change): Tories get 2% of the Liberal vote in Ont. Nothing else changes. Tories gain three seats: Chatham-Kent--Essex, Middlesex--Kent--Lambton and Northumberland--Quinte West
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And yes, yes it would. Which would mean a spring election.
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Cutting it down to the simplest scenario (i.e. claiming that no other party's vote will change): Tories get 2% of the Liberal vote in Ont. Nothing else changes.
Tories gain three seats: Chatham-Kent--Essex, Middlesex--Kent--Lambton and Northumberland--Quinte West
At 3%, they gain Ottawa West--Nepean and at 4%, they pick up Barrie as well.
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