I hate when I do this.
Will Kerry Wood ever be healthy?
Do you remember where you were when Kerry Wood struck out 20 on May 6, 1998? I was in my car outside of the Evanston High School track, listening to the end of the game before pursuing interviews for my prep story. The optimism I had that day for Wood finally may have evaporated completely.
Torn miniscus. Surgery. Minor setback. Two weeks.
Considering the Cubs' track record with injury prognoses, the news Friday might as well have been:
Arm fell off. Career over.
Wood's never going to regain that magical form of his rookie season in 1998. The only question now is whether he can help the team at all.
He was rehabbing his surgically repaired shoulder when he tore his miniscus. He's not even sure how it happened.
How can anyone depend on him at this point? What will happen when he starts throwing for real?
Wood will pitch again, but he'll never again be ''Kid K.'' For one thing, he's no longer a kid at 28. For another, that strikeout fire has become a distant memory.
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But the most-asked and most heated questions were about oft-injured right-hander Kerry Wood, who had shoulder surgery last August and knee surgery this month.
It seems fans are growing impatient with Wood, the No. 4 overall pick in 1995 who was relegated to bullpen duty last season because of injuries.
James Craig, 62, of Elgin, Ill., asked Baker about Wood's future.
"The future for Kerry as a starter or bullpen. We have to see how this kid comes back from the arm (injury)," Baker said. "Today, if you see him now, you wouldn't think he came back from a knee surgery much less an arm surgery.
"Right now this kid is way ahead of schedule. I think Kerry is one of those who will get it (reach his pitching potential) and get it late. Much like Nolan Ryan. . . . It takes a power pitcher longer to get it. I see him as a starter."
A few questions later, Joe Krinsky, 24, of Chicago asked Hendry if he thought it was fair for Cubs fans to wait for Wood to be healthy for the team to do well.
Krinsky pointed out that when Wood was healthy for an entire season in 1998 and 2003, the Cubs made the playoffs.
Hendry answered, "That's why you have other people. That's why we have a farm system. That's why Mark Prior came along . . . Carlos Zambrano. That's why you bring in a Wade Miller, who we view is up there with Kerry Wood. When he's (Wood) on and healthy, you want him on your side."
Laddor Cho, 32, and Lex Holmes, 56, both from Oklahoma, came away impressed with fans' questions.
"It was excellent," Cho said. "All the questions were very detailed. We know more (about the team) now. Some guys push hard enough that we don't have to ask any questions."
Holmes said, "The fans are impressively sophisticated. These were not just kids off the street asking questions. And they put them on the spot. Good for them. We don't think Kerry Wood is half as good as they (the Cubs) think, either."
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Mulder represents one of next winter's leading free-agent pitchers along with Barry Zito, Kerry Wood, Brad Radke and Jason Marquis. The Mets and New York Yankees also hold options on Glavine and Mike Mussina, respectively.
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I'm not sure Dr. Phil would agree, but I've long contended low expectations are one of the biggest keys to a happy life. And those have never applied to Kerry Wood.
Twenty strikeouts in his fifth big-league game set the bar ridiculously high, both for Wood and the frustrated Cubs fans who hitched their wagons to him.
But that doesn't have to be the case anymore. History teaches that Wood can be an occasional force but cannot be counted on, and no one knows that better than the Cubs themselves.
By this point, Wood's out-of-nowhere knee surgery--more than likely the result of overdoing the lower-body conditioning while otherwise idled by shoulder surgery--should be like water off the proverbial duck's back for general manager Jim Hendry and manager Dusty Baker.
It should not be a significant factor in determining the success of a team most people will pick second or third--and perhaps some as low as fourth--in the National League Central.
As spring training was beginning, I wrote that the key for the Cubs was to keep Mark Prior, Carlos Zambrano and Greg Maddux healthy. If those three guys are all right--and Prior has already fallen behind--then this team can be a pleasant surprise. Anything it gets from Wood--25 or 26 starts should still be possible after Monday's surgery--will be a bonus.
And then, more likely than not, the Cubs will begin life after Kerry Wood, just as they began life after Sammy Sosa in 2004. Unless Wood returns as a world-beater, this will probably be his last season in Chicago.
Next to the wide range of recurring injuries he has experienced, the biggest problem with Wood is where he is on the economic spectrum--in the back half of a contract he negotiated after his two best seasons, 2002 and '03. He'll earn $11 million this year and has a $13.5 million option for 2007.
There's almost no way the Cubs can exercise that option, not for a guy who has never won more than 14 games in a season and has averaged only 25 starts. With Zambrano and Prior as cornerstones, the Cubs can afford to spare themselves the annual heartbreak from Wood.
He may go on to dominate somewhere else. As full of himself as he is at this point, Curt Schilling was a pedestrian 43-42 with a 3.56 earned-run average eight years into his big-league career. Wood is 70-54 with a 3.67 ERA.
Those are similar numbers to Kevin Brown, who was 78-64 with a 3.81 ERA eight years in. He would do enough to be paid an average of $10 million a year for the next 12 years. If Wood can ever stay healthy, he could have the same kind of run in the second half of his career.
But that's not the Cubs' problem. Losing his potential wouldn't be like losing a 26-year-old Greg Maddux coming off a Cy Young Award season--not just because of Wood's wild inconsistency but also because he has two younger teammates who are better in Prior and Zambrano. Mike Morgan and Frank Castillo were the Cubs' next best pitchers when they blew the Maddux negotiations in 1992.
With the signing of Wade Miller to a club-friendly deal, the Cubs already have lined up one potential Wood replacement for 2007. They hope Jerome Williams and either lefty Rich Hill or the long-awaited Angel Guzman will take major steps toward establishing themselves as long-term contributors this season.
Rather than Wood, Maddux, who turns 40 next month, figures to be the Cubs' toughest pitching question at the end of this season.
After a disappointing 2005 in which his ERA crept up within .03 of the league average, Maddux evidenced his desire to pitch at least a few more years by working with a personal trainer this winter. It's no slam-dunk the Cubs will be able to keep him if he wins 15 or more for the 18th time in the last 19 years, as he's a decent bet to do.
Maddux is too smart to go to an American League team, which limits the potential interest somewhat. But every contender trying to fill out a rotation should have at least some interest in Maddux, giving Scott Boras the chance to get another multiyear deal for him after he holds up for 200 more innings. Even Milwaukee, with Mike Maddux as pitching coach, is a possibility.
Maddux matters more for the Cubs this year than Wood. His future with them just might matter more too.
For Hendry and Wood, turning the page is becoming almost inevitable.
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Why am I doing this to myself. This does not help me in anything. This doesn't make me feel any better, it only makes the knots in my stomach tighten, and I don't know why I'm so worried now about the off-season when the regular season hasn't even begun.
If this is to be my last year in Chicago, I want to make it a good one. If I'm to spend 2007 with another team, I want it to be a better one. So the Cubs can go, "If only we'd given him one more chance."