So, advocates of imprecise probabilities say 1) that in the complete absence of evidence about some proposition, we should assign a set of probabilities covering [0,1] to that proposition, and 2) that we should update our probabilities upon learning some evidence by conditionalizing upon each member of our set of probabilities ( Read more... )

Some people think we should have sets of probability functions to represent our credence in a proposition, rather than a single such function. They are wrong. Here is one reason ( Read more... )

And was on, say, Celebrity Jeopardy, and was asked to which charity I would be donating my vast winnings, I think I'd say Wikileaks.

So, first, you have to watch Willow Smith's amazingly autotuned video to get this. You don't need to watch beyond, say, a minute and a half to get it.

Click to view

Ok, now watch this:



That is hilarious. Ok, first: Jimmy Fallon does an amazing Neil Young impression. Second, you gotta keep watching that until you see Bruce Springsteen. That is fucking ( Read more... )

So, a fun little thing from the new york times is available here. They show the projected deficit for 2015 and for 2030 and give you a bunch of options for reducing spending or raising taxes in order to "solve" the budget. My response is hereSome of the options are (for me) no-brainers. First up are ones I would plump for even if we were running ( Read more... )

So, because of stupidness on my part, I'm teaching more than I should this semester. But a bonus is I am also making way more money than I expected, and have extra cash. So I'm thinking I want to subscribe to some cool magazines. Now, I'm already down with the Economist and the New Yorker. The former is, as far as I can tell, the best English- ( Read more... )

this is a great article. It gives very good reasons for something I've always believed: Anyone who opposes affirmative action (in college admissions) without opposing legacy admissions more is really, really dumb, and quite possibly despicable. There are a few people who probably avoid this criticism, iirc, the funder for the the California ( Read more... )

So, many people take the Grocery Guy's actions during the Tiananmen Square protests in China to be one of the best visual examples of standing up to authoritarian power. The visual image, of course is:


( Read more... )

So I'm taking my generals this semester, which means I need to do the written and oral examination no later than January 18th (or thereabouts ( Read more... )

*You really probably should skip this, its very long and unlikely to be of interest to any people who aren't into Bayesianism, and even maybe only some of them; I just kinda wanted to write it up ( Read more... )