The trouble with polling numbers

[koljeff]

This was pointed out to me last week by, admittedly, an Obama staffer: it's illegal to call people's cell phones for polling purposes. Therefore, anyone who has a cell phone not in addition to but instead of a landline (myself, for example) is automatically excluded from the polls. Now obviously sampling for political polls is never 100%

Comments

[beenie]

I didn't know it was illegal to call cells for polling stuff, I just knew it was annoying. I've gotten a few of those calls on my cell phone. Often at hours that everyone else knows not to call me at.

[koljeff]

I think it's illegal; I could be mistaken.

[redgormor]

That's interesting, isn't McCain still losing out on several mainstream polls?

[koljeff]

Like most of them, as far as I'm aware. Fun fact: according to CNN's current electoral-projection map, if Obama wins every state that's either "safe Obama" or "leaning Obama" and if McCain wins every state that's either "safe McCain" or "leaning McCain", the only "toss-up" state Obama has to win is Ohio*. Florida would work even better (at 27 electoral votes, as opposed to Ohio's 20, which would be exactly as many as he'd need in the aforementioned scenario); so would Colorado (or, for preference, both New Hampshire and Nevada) and either Missouri or Virginia; or any two of Missouri, Virginia, and Wisconsin