(no subject)
oh man's! it's been exactly a year since i last used this doohickey
new plan: let's play the lj game w/ less emo and more worthwhile
k.. so maybe i don't really have much worthwhile to say, seems like i'm only really good at taking things in, but no so much with the reworking them into something new
--
have been reading about globalization and the problem of civilization lately, and it's gotten me all up in qualms with myself. derrick jensen says we should take everything down, but at the same time he's living somewhere near here in marin with his electricity and gasoline and all the wonders of civilized life. and there's the IFG (int'l forum on globalization) that says everything is OK, it's just trade and the 'unholy trinity' (WTO/IMF/WorldBank(TM)) that's to blame [well, and maybe certain western dictators]. paul watson says screw everything, i'm just going to sail on my ship and try to save some whales. and ted carns says, looky here, i can live off the grid, go me.
either way, everyone (well, everyone i find myself searching out and trying to listen to at least) says we're in a deep rut, but things don't really seem to be getting better. but you know what keeps me going? the one thing everyone is afraid of, oil running out. every problem facing the world can be traced down to oil, no really. and sure things might suck for a bit when it runs out, but at least that will give us some hope.
here's my perfect world (maybe 50years from now? assuming what they say about peak oil is true):
gasoline has run out, no more cars, no more big ships. bad? i think good, it means produce is grown locally, imports are kept to a minimum, and it means a refocus on local governance. government reclaims the commons (water, air, maybe even healthcare), and is managed by a more or less true democracy. town hall-ish meetings are held often, and most laws are passed by referendum. since communication is frickin hard without electricity, governing is done remotely at best and hopefully locally whenever possible. the one thing that separates us from the 19th century however, is that electricity is not completely gone. some solar and wind plants are used to manufacture even more plants. hell, maybe nuclear is used for a few years before our uranium reserves run dry. we use up the remaining nukes to power the plants that manufacture solar arrays with our last few megawatts.
anyways, with shipping out of the picture, world trade is no longer an issue, and with the instabilities and expense of electrical systems, finance returns to being a primarily paper business. with combine harvesters and railroads gone, industrialized agribusiness ceases to be profitable and collapses. this here is the most dangerous part... the trick is hoping that people can reuse the land and replace the current crop of monocultures with something reasonable.
the crash will happen eventually, if i'm lucky, in my lifetime, because i'm really excited about seeing what happens. but you know what? i don't think it'll happen like most environmentalists say. it's not like overnight, bam! oil is gone and uranium is depleted and we're totally hosed for energy sources. no, oil production is a bell curve (or so i'm told). this means it'll tail off over the course of years, giving ample for agribusiness to collapse and be replaced again by real farming. it means institutions will be able to rephase themselves back to a paper run system. and as the price of paper rises, bureaucracies won't be able to afford keeping around all the dead weight.
the only messy part is that we're over carying capacity.. so population will have to drop, and resource importing cities like vegas and new york will have tremendous declines in peoples. here's hoping that it won't be messy, and birth rates account for the majority of the losses.
--
i can't stop thinking about this stuff, it's like a bad dream, but then i realize it's reality. 50 years or so? jesus... world war II was 60 years ago.
new plan: let's play the lj game w/ less emo and more worthwhile
k.. so maybe i don't really have much worthwhile to say, seems like i'm only really good at taking things in, but no so much with the reworking them into something new
--
have been reading about globalization and the problem of civilization lately, and it's gotten me all up in qualms with myself. derrick jensen says we should take everything down, but at the same time he's living somewhere near here in marin with his electricity and gasoline and all the wonders of civilized life. and there's the IFG (int'l forum on globalization) that says everything is OK, it's just trade and the 'unholy trinity' (WTO/IMF/WorldBank(TM)) that's to blame [well, and maybe certain western dictators]. paul watson says screw everything, i'm just going to sail on my ship and try to save some whales. and ted carns says, looky here, i can live off the grid, go me.
either way, everyone (well, everyone i find myself searching out and trying to listen to at least) says we're in a deep rut, but things don't really seem to be getting better. but you know what keeps me going? the one thing everyone is afraid of, oil running out. every problem facing the world can be traced down to oil, no really. and sure things might suck for a bit when it runs out, but at least that will give us some hope.
here's my perfect world (maybe 50years from now? assuming what they say about peak oil is true):
gasoline has run out, no more cars, no more big ships. bad? i think good, it means produce is grown locally, imports are kept to a minimum, and it means a refocus on local governance. government reclaims the commons (water, air, maybe even healthcare), and is managed by a more or less true democracy. town hall-ish meetings are held often, and most laws are passed by referendum. since communication is frickin hard without electricity, governing is done remotely at best and hopefully locally whenever possible. the one thing that separates us from the 19th century however, is that electricity is not completely gone. some solar and wind plants are used to manufacture even more plants. hell, maybe nuclear is used for a few years before our uranium reserves run dry. we use up the remaining nukes to power the plants that manufacture solar arrays with our last few megawatts.
anyways, with shipping out of the picture, world trade is no longer an issue, and with the instabilities and expense of electrical systems, finance returns to being a primarily paper business. with combine harvesters and railroads gone, industrialized agribusiness ceases to be profitable and collapses. this here is the most dangerous part... the trick is hoping that people can reuse the land and replace the current crop of monocultures with something reasonable.
the crash will happen eventually, if i'm lucky, in my lifetime, because i'm really excited about seeing what happens. but you know what? i don't think it'll happen like most environmentalists say. it's not like overnight, bam! oil is gone and uranium is depleted and we're totally hosed for energy sources. no, oil production is a bell curve (or so i'm told). this means it'll tail off over the course of years, giving ample for agribusiness to collapse and be replaced again by real farming. it means institutions will be able to rephase themselves back to a paper run system. and as the price of paper rises, bureaucracies won't be able to afford keeping around all the dead weight.
the only messy part is that we're over carying capacity.. so population will have to drop, and resource importing cities like vegas and new york will have tremendous declines in peoples. here's hoping that it won't be messy, and birth rates account for the majority of the losses.
--
i can't stop thinking about this stuff, it's like a bad dream, but then i realize it's reality. 50 years or so? jesus... world war II was 60 years ago.