Wherein I score 491 points, play 5 bingos and still lose.

[lotting]

The game is from the Durham Charity tournament on 1/15/12 between Eric Smith and me. I would appreciate some insight on what I should have done to prevent Scrabble catastrophe at the end. Thank you Eric, for the racks.

http://www.cross-tables.com/annotated.php?u=10240

Comments

[badqoph]

I mean, other than getting bitten by a radioactive spider and getting super powers such as x-ray vision and precognition, I think you're fairly safe. It's a lesson to be learned, though. If there's a way you can lose, don't do it. You can't know he doesn't have an I to hook to make a 3x3. Super mega expert players can see those possibilities and actively look for them before making plays.

So, the advice? Ask yourself, okay, what is the worst possible scenario that could happen if I make this move. That would mean you'd have to see that PAINTE(R)S is in the pool and you'd have to do the math that if he bingos out and catches you with the rest of the stuff, you will lose. Also, doing a subanagram match on that pool shows he also could have FAINTERS (worse) or SPINNERY (even worse!). This is an extreme case, yes, but there have been smaller more likely cases where I've had to calculate how risky a play is, and it's helped me to avoid similar disasters such as this.

[scrabblek8]

yeah, it looks like you played the game really well - this is just super unlucky. i guess i would've probably counted up what the lowest impact 3x3 would be worth (without trying to work out what the words might be, which turns out to be 131 i think) and done the math out to see if i'd be able to outrun it. it's still hard to say whether or not i would've done it anyway.

[lotting]

That's a really practical suggestion, Kate, especially if you are low on time. Next time I'm in this situation, I'll think to do it.

[njdevil44]

Quackle's suggestions are good, shutting down the one triple lane while leaving 2 lanes open so that if he bingoes, you have a good shot of bingoing back or outrunning him anyway. It still is pretty rotten luck, but after DOC he's likely to have a really nice rack, seeing that C and D are good tiles by themselves, so no reason to rush into your bingo now.

If you want my racks for our games let me know and I'll send them your way. Still haven't gotten around to Quackling this tournament myself.