Just posted all of my games from BAT - looks like I didn't make too many big mistakes, but I blew two games against Ian and Joel Sherman and my shenanigans against Cesar could easily have cost me a third
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What can Jason even have after LA? AEIRST is the only think I'm coming up with. He probably doesn't have the blank and if he does after a play like LA where he almost certainly passed up a bingo you're screwed anyway. He certainly didn't keep two Is and if you look at it you can see that he also kept an A. Maybe he kept AERSTU, but that doesn't seem likely. LA is certainly nowhere near the best play with AAERSTU, and I don't think Jason would've played it.
That said you just need to find something that wins against AEIIRST and AEIRSTU. I don't think you can win if he gets AEIRST?. Given that, you should be emptying the bag because not doing so gives him chances with AEIIRST and AEIRSTU. BURGAGE and BURG at 11i both empty the bag and win against these racks. They're similar against either of those racks but BURG looks better because it gives up a lot less spread if he draws the blank. There are probably other plays that win against AEIIRST and AEIRSTU as well.
I think you're right that I have to play him for SATIRE + something, but in that case is it not the case that I beat him with almost any play subsequently? I guess if I fail to empty the bag I give him another shot at drawing into SATIRE?, but then it seems like I may still be able to outrun him anyway. Thanks for the feedback.
You probably have to empty the bag, unless you see a play that doesn't do so and always wins against non-blank racks. For example, your AX loses to his (AX)E from AEIIRST and a subsequent blank draw for him. (A)I actually loses to your BURG(E)E, so he has to make another opening. He might not find AXE or some such play, but why take that chance? I'm pretty sure you can't just make "any play" that empties the bag either. BURGAGE wins by 10 at most and BURG wins by 2 at most (tho again BURG loses by less against AEIRST? and thus looks better). These numbers don't suggest that any play will do. For example if you do RE(d)BUG you lose by a tad whether he has AEIIRST or AEIRSTU, albeit in somewhat tricky sequences.
The CHIN position against Scott looks really tough... I hate those positions where there's clearly a small winning percentage within your grasp if you make the right play and get lucky.
I'm not sure if this is right, but I kinda like ANKH here. You have about a 2% shot at hitting a bingo ending in O (SERPIGO, NITROSO in the pool, and ROSOLIO and PROVISO with the blank), and might have a chance to fish one tile to hit in two spots depending on Scott's play. Most tiles can't hook AT because they will open a bingo lane - GAT and SAT are the only "safe" plays there.
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That said you just need to find something that wins against AEIIRST and AEIRSTU. I don't think you can win if he gets AEIRST?. Given that, you should be emptying the bag because not doing so gives him chances with AEIIRST and AEIRSTU. BURGAGE and BURG at 11i both empty the bag and win against these racks. They're similar against either of those racks but BURG looks better because it gives up a lot less spread if he draws the blank. There are probably other plays that win against AEIIRST and AEIRSTU as well.
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I'm not sure if this is right, but I kinda like ANKH here. You have about a 2% shot at hitting a bingo ending in O (SERPIGO, NITROSO in the pool, and ROSOLIO and PROVISO with the blank), and might have a chance to fish one tile to hit in two spots depending on Scott's play. Most tiles can't hook AT because they will open a bingo lane - GAT and SAT are the only "safe" plays there.
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