CA gay marriage: what's next?

[mattycub]

Any day now the CA Supreme Court will rule on the legality of Prop 8. The conventional wisdom, which I agree with, is that they will rule to uphold Prop 8 while at the same time keeping the 18k marriages performed before the election. That's good news for me personally, but not so good for the rest of the community and the state

Comments

[dr_tectonic]

I think the odds are good that it can be won in 2010, but I think it's better strategy to go for the more sure bet in 2012

[zodmicrobe]

i think it's a tossup.

my gut says 2010, honestly. and if it's in 2012, we run the risk of being politicized in the context of another presidential election, but this one with a democratic incumbent far more likely to throw us under the bus.

but you're right, if we wait until 2012 the momentum will most likely be so off the hook that it won't even be much of a fight. the GOP is already talking about leaving this issue to the states in an effort not to come off like the scum-sucking bigots they have been in the past, and if the GOP nominee does that (which i think is very very likely) then 2012 gay marriage will be basically a fait accompli.

[shirtlifterbear]

My feeling is that we have learned to our dismay that we do NOT get support from the increased turnout for Obama.

You know, the President who hasn't said ONE WORD about Gay Marriage since elected, and is still discharging under Don't Ask Don't Tell?

I say make 2010 OUR YEAR, and have Gavin Newsome win it for us!

[mikiedoggie]

I think it could probably be done in 2010 if it was a strong coordinated effort; 2012 would be strategically better? T

The flip side is 2012 is another election year and there's always the randomness of how gay marriage can polarize issues.

[foodpoisoningsf]

2010.

2012 is a presidential election, and I'm tired of being thrown under buses by the Democrats.

2010 may be tough because conservatives tend to vote in larger numbers than liberal/progressives, but with the shift to a younger population and some effort by gays to get to the polls we may be able to counteract that. 8's language was somewhat misleading, which accounted for some accidental votes. And it looks like NY will have marriage by then- and perhaps another state or two- which will bring the whole issue more into the mainstream.

[popebuck1]

The thing is, the one option doesn't rule out the other. If we get a referendum onto the ballot in 2010, and it doesn't succeed, there's no reason why we couldn't do it again in 2012. This is the exact strategy that the anti-gay forces have been using all along - if they didn't get a referendum onto the ballot in one year, they would try again the following year, and again, and again, and again.

That said, I say we go for it in 2010. Why wait?